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That's a large expansion of the hatch into Georgia.
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Severe WX April 11th-13th, 2020 Severe Weather Threat
- Thread starter Taylor Campbell
- Start date
That's a large expansion of the hatch into Georgia.
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brianc33710
Member
Yeah. I remember the MOD risk up there, with the discussion of an upgrade. That event wasn't a "Forecasted Convective Amplification Deficiency," but it did underperform.
I will say that the winds have picked up a bit here in Bham. And, while its petty, with the models so high, I'd rather them issue the High Risk later today for consistency.
sak
Member
The moderate has definitely shifted east. Places in central Louisiana and SW Mississippi that looked not too far from the bullseye have been downgraded a good bit (though obviously there is still a significant threat there) while the threat has seemingly increased across eastern AL/GA/Carolinas for late Sunday into Monday.
Looks like the highest risk now is centered closer to Interstate 65 as opposed to Interstate 55 a couple days ago.
...But still, everywhere from Louisiana to the Carolinas was always at risk and still is.
Looks like the highest risk now is centered closer to Interstate 65 as opposed to Interstate 55 a couple days ago.
...But still, everywhere from Louisiana to the Carolinas was always at risk and still is.
Kory
Member
As we've seen time and time again, the SPC underestimates the capping down along the coast. They seemingly always shift their outlooks further from the coast as time goes on...remember a few days ago it was practically the I-10 corridor? Yeah...this happens nearly everytime.
weunice
Member
From having lived in SE LA my whole life AND having studied the particular outbreaks which were significant here, they do seem to continually underestimate the capping near the gulf. We almost always get bailed out. There are rare instances otherwise (April 24, 1908 being a notable exception, Hattiesburg EF4, Enterprise, AL etc.) ... We have to prepare for the rare here because it isn't impossible but I do believe repeated MOD+ risks around here not coming to fruition are not helping with the complacency problem.
Kory
Member
Yep, I'm from New Orleans and moved to Alabama for college and have noticed that. Many of the larger severe wx outbreaks here have major capping down along the coast. I immediately check for that...usually the first thing I look for on soundings along the coast. Otherwise, if you had a convective blow up down there, it would stunt advection of the volatile airmass northward and we'd have little severe wx.
Case and point...the sounding from New Orleans NWS. Check out that massive cap right around 850mb! Otherwise, that is a VOLATILE sounding. Actually a violent tornado sounding.
Bama Ravens
Member
Sun is shining pretty good at my location north of Birmingham.
take a look at actual soundings coming in, CAMS have had no clue to cap..loaded gun soundings to our southwest with stout EML
- Moderator
- #629
Some people need to quit worrying about moderate risk or high risk at this point. In February, dozens died in Tennessee where there was NO "official" risk. From all the information we have, we KNOW today could be a very dangerous day, especially in Alabama. I am more concerned on how many people may not see Monday (myself included) on whether what color the map is. This afternoon and tonight are looking to be the greatest threat we have had in years. Focus on that and getting the word out to try and help mitigate loss of life.
absolutely! MDT or HIGH, doesn't matter!
Sorry I didn't realize you already posted...I think that is the most important piece of info we have right nowYep, I'm from New Orleans and moved to Alabama for college and have noticed that. Many of the larger severe wx outbreaks here have major capping down along the coast. I immediately check for that...usually the first thing I look for on soundings along the coast. Otherwise, if you had a convective blow up down there, it would stunt advection of the volatile airmass northward and we'd have little severe wx.
Case and point...the sounding from New Orleans NWS. Check out that massive cap right around 850mb! Otherwise, that is a VOLATILE sounding. Actually a violent tornado sounding.
Kory
Member
Looks like we have gravity waves.
- Moderator
- #633
That's not good.
Equus
Member
Gooooood morning, I see everything is horrifying
TornadoFan
Member
Do gravity waves help enhance any storms?
Kory
Member
Yes, research has shown that.
brianc33710
Member
Yes they do, though I'm not knowledgeable myself to explain the process.
TornadoFan
Member
I'm no expert when it comes to weather by any means, so I do ask quite bit of questions.
Exactly! Everyone needs to remember there's no magic cut off point to this nor is the specific threat designation a tell-all to what plays out. As they always admonish with watches that this happens in or around the watch area and it certainly can be rough going in a moderate vs high threat scale. That said this is good to drop these reminders on occasion here to those lurkers who aren't as attuned and dialed in as some of us others are.
I have been lurking a lot but did want to join the fray since I had not for a while. I have recently sent several people to this site who are very "green" so I wanted to thank all the participants here including those Mets like yourself Mr Jacks and others of you in the know. This is a great service to others and I wanted ALL you guys to know that! I will chime in with some weather thoughts soon but what I said needed to be said! When this is over the ones here doing the heavy lifting need to take a well deserved bow!
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