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Severe Weather 2026

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This is wild yall… impressive tornado for a no risk. 2026..



Not to be a Debbie Downer but Fort Stockton is the place of mesoscale insanity a wizardry. This area is literally notorious for surprise sigtors in any measurable amount of instability. Doesn't surprise me.
 
As to how it happened, I'd say strong LL SRW and a obvious nudger in the backside of the cell evident. Vertical stretching a terrain does it over here too

Prime example of why we will never accurately predict tornadoes. Variables like this works other times and sometimes they don't. That's why I love this hobby.
 
Not to be a Debbie Downer but Fort Stockton is the place of mesoscale insanity a wizardry. This area is literally notorious for surprise sigtors in any measurable amount of instability. Doesn't surprise me.
Not a Debbie downer. :) I have heard of fort Stockton shenanigans. It’s October and it just took me by surprise.
 
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Not to be a Debbie Downer but Fort Stockton is the place of mesoscale insanity a wizardry. This area is literally notorious for surprise sigtors in any measurable amount of instability. Doesn't surprise me.
I think it's more funny this is the first time no chaser has seen a Fort Stockton region tornado. Given how reliable the area has been the last few years.
 
What's up with the hourly forecast section on weather.gov (NWS)? For several days now it has shown Little Rock, Tulsa, OKC, & DFW with temperatures flatlining hi/lows in the low 40's for Sat, Sun, and Mon, but the official forecast page has highs in the 60's and 70's all 3 days. It's been doing this since Tuesday.

I can't recall seeing such a huge mismatch like that before, certainly not uncorrected for several days.
 
I think it's more funny this is the first time no chaser has seen a Fort Stockton region tornado. Given how reliable the area has been the last few years.
No chaser seen the other one in July either. These mesoscale tors are hard to predict but the basics were there yesterday for such..
 
Tornado threat may conditionally continue in IL/IN now that updrafts have developed.

The next two hours are favorable for supercells, favorable for potentially weak tornadoes. Here is the 0-2km UH product via the new Satsquatch update which is absolutely fantastic for analysing the potential for rotating updrafts via the 12z HRRR which helps gets a good grip of the areas with most interest.

Screenshot_2026-10-15-22-46-04-437.jpeg

0-2km UH needs to be utilised a lot more in CAMS as it legitimately is the real, surface based UH you should be referencing to instead of 2-5km. This shows things pretty well should cells begin to mature but nothing too robust.
 
Tornado threat may conditionally continue in IL/IN now that updrafts have developed.

The next two hours are favorable for supercells, favorable for potentially weak tornadoes. Here is the 0-2km UH product via the new Satsquatch update which is absolutely fantastic for analysing the potential for rotating updrafts via the 12z HRRR which helps gets a good grip of the areas with most interest.

View attachment 55324

0-2km UH needs to be utilised a lot more in CAMS as it legitimately is the real, surface based UH you should be referencing to instead of 2-5km. This shows things pretty well should cells begin to mature but nothing too robust.
They're all lethargic as of now but they're all clearly supes. Think we might get a few tors out of these.
 
AT 544 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER
LAWRENCEVILLE, MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES.

* THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
LAWRENCEVILLE AND LAWRENCEVILLE VINCENNES AIRPORT AROUND 550 PM
CDT.

THIS ALSO INCLUDES RED HILLS STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMAIN ALERT FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO! TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY
FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU SPOT A TORNADO GO AT ONCE INTO THE
BASEMENT OR SMALL CENTRAL ROOM IN A STURDY STRUCTURE.
 
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