Hurricane Isaias

[MQATLSNOW]

Mid level dry slug is interesting to me.
View attachment 55292

What does this mean overall for this storm?

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

why do we have a tor warn in GA right now its 2 mf am

 

[Blountwolf]

What does this mean overall for this storm?

Not sure, tbh. Dries things out where it is, for sure.

 

[eep]

why do we have a tor warn in GA right now its 2 mf am

Based on the other thread (which really shouldn't have been separated from this one) there was a brief spin up on radar.

 

[Clancy]

Thankfully still have power for now, but it's gusting hard. Everything shakes and shudders every once in a while, pretty spooky sound.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[cyelle21]

I am in Dallas County , Alabama and the winds have died down. According to the National Weather Service, this is when we were supposed to get the highest winds. Has the storm moved through faster than anticipated? We are now located on the south edge of the rain shield.

 

[cyelle21]

Also, this is probably a stupid question, but when do they start restoring power after a storm? Do they follow the weather warnings? If an area is still under a Tropical Storm Warning, but it is safe to begin restoration, can they begin working on the lines? Or do they have to wait for that Tropical Storm Warning to expire? I am already anticipating being without power for a few days.

 

[Sawmaster]

I am in Dallas County , Alabama and the winds have died down. According to the National Weather Service, this is when we were supposed to get the highest winds. Has the storm moved through faster than anticipated? We are now located on the south edge of the rain shield.

The Alabama network is live with James Spann. Should answer your questions better than I can

 

[_melody_]

We lost power a little before 5 AM this morning. SW Cullman County. No estimate yet for repair.

 

[David in SW Blount]

Winds are getting a little gustier here in SW Blount County, but nothing too notable (unless I missed something overnight). I hope everyone without power gets it back as quickly as possible.

 

[Jason McCracken]

Maybe I am just being a slow boy but I dont remember a tropical system bringing cooler weather. Very much appreciate the rain.

 

[Clancy]

Family in the Pensacola area reported "massive" tree damage all over and power remains out this morning. One has a tree on top of their home.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

I think half of the 5% today should be trimmed but supercells already showing low level rotation so interesting day ahead

 

[Clancy]

Gusty winds are continuing in the Atlanta area this morning, but rain has moved out of the area. Got some limbs down but thankfully nothing large so far. Over 800,000 without power this morning, with the Florida Panhandle worst-impacted, but some serious outages in Alabama as well, with all of Conecuh County out of power.

 

[Blountwolf]

OK, I'll say it (after catching up on sleep). This could have been SOOO much worse. Shout out to the shear and dry air for making an impact exactly when you needed to. If it impacted your place obviously it was bad enough, but the overall does not appear to have been as hard of a hit as feared.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

OK, I'll say it (after catching up on sleep). This could have been SOOO much worse. Shout out to the shear and dry air for making an impact exactly when you needed to. If it impacted your place obviously it was bad enough, but the overall does not appear to have been as hard of a hit as feared.

Yep. Honestly went how most expected with a peak as major which lasted longer than anticipated but landfall was around my expectations.

 

[Kds86z]

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN GEORGIA INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 101700Z - 101830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE MAY
BE NEEDED PENDING STRENGTHENING STORM TRENDS.

DISCUSSION...THE WARM SECTOR WITHIN THE RIGHT-FRONT QUADRANT OF
ISAIAS' REMNANTS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE, WITH INSOLATION AND
LOW-LEVEL WARM-AIR ADVECTION CONTRIBUTING TO LOW 80S F/MID 70S F
SURFACE TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD OVER LAND,
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CONFLUENCE BAND. WITH TIME, CONVECTIVE CELLS
BOTH WITHIN AND PRECEDING THIS BAND SHOULD DEEPEN AND INTENSIFY AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE.

MLCAPE SHOULD ONLY REACH THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE ON A WIDESPREAD
BASIS, AND BE CONSTRAINED TO VERY THIN VERTICAL BUOYANCY PROFILES.
NONETHELESS, AMPLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS PREVALENT WITH
ISAIAS' REMNANTS, WITH REGIONAL VADS STILL SHOWING ENLARGED, CURVED
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND OVER 400 M2/S2 OF 0-3 KM SRH. THEREFORE,
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER, PERSISTENTLY
ROTATING UPDRAFTS THAT CAN DEVELOP WITHIN THIS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
BUT HIGHLY SHEARED AIRMASS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A TORNADO WILL BE
WITH ANY STORMS THAT INTERACT WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS, WHICH IS SERVING AS AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT. IF AN
APPRECIABLE UPTICK IN UPDRAFT STRENGTH BECOMES EVIDENT, THEN A
TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED.

 

[Mike S]

Google tops out a Cat 2, with a Cat 1 coming ashore around Pensacola Friday night.

GFS track takes the Ivan route, exiting out to the Atlantic and looping back around to the Gulf. Canadian does something similar. Amusing to see if nothing else.

I don't know about the other models, but over 72 hours out Google Deepmind was within 90 minutes on timing and about 40 miles on distance.

 

[Taylor Campbell]

I don't know about the other models, but over 72 hours out Google Deepmind was within 90 minutes on timing and about 40 miles on distance.

Insanity and the GFS did better than the EURO and other global models.