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Severe Weather 2026
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
GXSC
Member
Nice, and in the week right before I move out of town.
In 1-2 years I gotta get to Pennsylvania or smth so I stop being so stressed about the weather all the time.
Kds86z
Member
He isn’t quite sold. Good thoughts.
Last edited:
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
He's essentially sprouting what Hunter Fowkes said regarding crapvection and the saturated mid levels. I sincerely think everyone is hyping this setup a bit too much on there and I think it's classic chaser fatigue
CheeselandSkies
Member
IIRC Hunter is part of the Storm Chaser Coaching team, so they do work together.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
I meant this not on them but half the other chasers wishcasting or being like "don't sleep on this!!" they've examined the failmodes very well.
Kds86z
Member
Latest day 2 from Bentley
30 TO 35 KNOTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A SUPERCELL
STORM MODE. IF THIS DISCRETE STORM MODE CAN BE MAINTAINED, A EF2+
TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST GIVEN THE NEARLY PURELY STREAMWISE
VORTICITY IN THE LOWEST 2KM FROM RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE
REGION. LIMITING FACTORS TO THIS SCENARIO ARE MULTIPLE STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND QUICKLY GROWING UPSCALE AND A LACK OF
STRONG VENTING FLOW ALOFT WHICH MAY RESULT IN DISRUPTIVE DOWNBURSTS
BEFORE A MORE ORGANIZED, STRONG LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE CAN DEVELOP.
30 TO 35 KNOTS OF
EFFECTIVE SHEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A SUPERCELL
STORM MODE. IF THIS DISCRETE STORM MODE CAN BE MAINTAINED, A EF2+
TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST GIVEN THE NEARLY PURELY STREAMWISE
VORTICITY IN THE LOWEST 2KM FROM RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE
REGION. LIMITING FACTORS TO THIS SCENARIO ARE MULTIPLE STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND QUICKLY GROWING UPSCALE AND A LACK OF
STRONG VENTING FLOW ALOFT WHICH MAY RESULT IN DISRUPTIVE DOWNBURSTS
BEFORE A MORE ORGANIZED, STRONG LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE CAN DEVELOP.
Kds86z
Member
Gosh I love his discussions.