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2026 Global Tropical Cyclone Discussion

JPWX said:
Unless post analysis says otherwise, Dolphin peaked at 165mph
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An override by the JTWC set it at 175 mph (150 kts)
 
JPWX said:
With Super Typhoon Dolphin becoming a category 5, it's the first time since 2002 that the Western Pacific has had 3 category 5 typhoons before August. Which ended up being the total number of category 5 typhoons that entire season. Gonna be interesting to see how many category 5 typhoons we have this season.
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Not technically right on being the first time since 2002. 2015 had Maysak, Noul, Dolphin and Soudelor (Soudelor formed at the end of July, though it became a 155 kt/180 mph Category 5 typhoon in the early days of August, but technically it counts because it formed in the last days of July)
 
Atlantic said:
Not technically right on being the first time since 2002. 2015 had Maysak, Noul, Dolphin and Soudelor (Soudelor formed at the end of July, though it became a 155 kt/180 mph Category 5 typhoon in the early days of August, but technically it counts because it formed in the last days of July)
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O okay. I missed 2015 somehow. I'm sorry
 
JPWX said:
O okay. I missed 2015 somehow. I'm sorry
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It’s all good, but your point does still stand of three Category 5 storms before August
 
WPAC is in a slopfest right now with Tropical Depression Peilou (previously a Tropical Storm) (ex-Kujira), Tropical Storm Chan-hom, and Tropical Depression 15W (which briefly became a Tropical Storm), plus the weakening long-lived system that was Super Typhoon Dolphin.

16 named storms up to this point makes 2026 the most active season since 1971 by August 9th.
 
Bad news @JPWX and tropical crew:

JTWC will no longer publicize their best track analysis for all seasons 2025 and onwards, this appears to apply to all basins that the JTWC tracks. I do not know if this is really true, but if it is, 2024 and back will keep their best track analysis.
 
Atlantic said:
Bad news @JPWX and tropical crew:

JTWC will no longer publicize their best track analysis for all seasons 2025 and onwards, this appears to apply to all basins that the JTWC tracks. I do not know if this is really true, but if it is, 2024 and back will keep their best track analysis.
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Which means we will be stuck with operational analysis 2025 onwards
 
SouthFLwx said:
Honestly pretty ridiculous and not sure why they made that decision.
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I’m still trying to find a citation for it, because I found out from Nathan on YT, who is a reliable YTer.
 
The monsoon gyre in the WPAC spits out one last system in newly Tropical Storm Nangka, however the JTWC still maintains it as Invest 91W with a medium chance of development in the next 24-48 hours.

Like with several other systems that ultimately would end up becoming tropical cyclones later on their life in this year’s season, except Haishen, which Haishen never became a TC according to the JTWC, JMA named Nangka/91W far too early.

Regardless, Nangka is the 17th named storm of the season in the Western Pacific, continuing the monicker of this season being the most active to this point since 1971.
 
Atlantic said:
The monsoon gyre in the WPAC spits out one last system in newly Tropical Storm Nangka, however the JTWC still maintains it as Invest 91W with a medium chance of development in the next 24-48 hours.

Like with several other systems that ultimately would end up becoming tropical cyclones later on their life in this year’s season, except Haishen, which Haishen never became a TC according to the JTWC, JMA named Nangka/91W far too early.

Regardless, Nangka is the 17th named storm of the season in the Western Pacific, continuing the monicker of this season being the most active to this point since 1971.
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The system has consolidated since last night, and it is now Tropical Depression Nangka by JTWC, and the JTWC expects Nangka to become a short-lived Tropical Storm in the next day or so before encountering increasingly hostile conditions.
 
Also for the first time just 21 minutes ago, we got a Potential Tropical Cyclone in the Central Pacific basin, the first CPAC PTC since PTC advisories began in 2017.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C is as of the first forecast just released recently, expected to be near hurricane strength as it approaches the big island of Hawaii, and the forecast holds it near hurricane strength after passing directly over the big island and continuing westward remaining near hurricane strength.
 
Atlantic said:
Also for the first time just 21 minutes ago, we got a Potential Tropical Cyclone in the Central Pacific basin, the first CPAC PTC since PTC advisories began in 2017.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C is as of the first forecast just released recently, expected to be near hurricane strength as it approaches the big island of Hawaii, and the forecast holds it near hurricane strength after passing directly over the big island and continuing westward remaining near hurricane strength.
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Here is that forecast from the NHC/CPHC on Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C:
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The next name in the Central Pacific is Lala, last used, which was its first time in use, in the 1980s
 
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