2026 Global Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Kds86z]

From @Atlantic:

The Western Pacific is ahead of 1997 in ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) and number of named storms and major typhoons, however, 1997 had more typhoons up to this point.

2026 had produced 9 named storms (not counting Nuri, which was considered a TD by JTWC and Haishen, which was not recognized as a TC at all by the JTWC), 4 typhoons, 3 major typhoons and 2 super typhoons (both of which have been Category 5 on the SSHWS)

1997 had up to this point 9 named storms, 5 typhoons, 2 major typhoons, both of which had been Category 5 super typhoons.

If you count Nuri and Haishen, the number of named storms goes to 11, vs 1997’s 9 NS

 

[SouthFLwx]

From @Atlantic:

The Western Pacific is ahead of 1997 in ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) and number of named storms and major typhoons, however, 1997 had more typhoons up to this point.

2026 had produced 9 named storms (not counting Nuri, which was considered a TD by JTWC and Haishen, which was not recognized as a TC at all by the JTWC), 4 typhoons, 3 major typhoons and 2 super typhoons (both of which have been Category 5 on the SSHWS)

1997 had up to this point 9 named storms, 5 typhoons, 2 major typhoons, both of which had been Category 5 super typhoons.

If you count Nuri and Haishen, the number of named storms goes to 11, vs 1997’s 9 NS

there are definitely quite a few similarities between 1997 and this year for the WPAC, so I am vert confident on a hyperactive season

 

[JPWX]

Here's a very interesting fact: 2026 is the first season since 2003 in which all 5 Eastern Pacific named storms did not achieve hurricane intensity.

 

[Atlantic]

A disturbance is nearing the International Date Line in the Central Pacific with 40/70 chances in 2 days and 7 days respectively, and models seem to want it to become a powerful typhoon in the WPAC after it crosses the IDL. The CPHC expects it to become a tropical depression after crossing the dateline.

Should it become a TD (it would be designated 01C) or TS in the CPAC, the next name is Lala.

If it becomes a TD (it would be designated 12W) or a TS in the WPAC, the next name is Dolphin.

 

[Atlantic]

Invest 92C is crossing the IDL with 90/90 chances, and so it will become a TC in the WPAC basin.

 

[Kds86z]

Invest 92C is crossing the IDL with 90/90 chances, and so it will become a TC in the WPAC basin.

 

[slenker]

HAFS B right now has a 871 mb beast. The only models going sub-900 here are the HAFS models, so I’d like to see subsequent model runs and a little more consistency between them before believing that sub 900 is going to happen here. HWRF has a storm in the high 930s, but I’m not too sure which models tend to be the strongest at prediction when it comes to tropical weather.

I was confident Bavi would reach sub 900 (and it potentially could have), but agencies didn’t seem to think so.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Atlantic]

HAFS B right now has a 871 mb beast. The only models going sub-900 here are the HAFS models, so I’d like to see subsequent model runs and a little more consistency between them before believing that sub 900 is going to happen here. HWRF has a storm in the high 930s, but I’m not too sure which models tend to be the strongest at prediction when it comes to tropical weather.

I was confident Bavi would reach sub 900 (and it potentially could have), but agencies didn’t seem to think so.

From what I gathered in the 12Z Hurricane models:

HWRF - 118.5 kts, 930.5 mb
HWRF Parent - 121.7 kts, 933.1 mb
HMON - 131.1 kts, 912.7 mb
HAFS-A - 176.5 kts, 877.4 mb
HAFS-A Parent - 161.7 kts, 879.0 mb
HAFS-B - 184.1 kts, 870.9 mb
HAFS-B Parent - 165.7 kts, 873.2 mb
GFS - 118.8 kts, 913.2 mb

12Z has 4 models going Cat 4, 4 models going Cat 5, every model in the 12Z run reaches at least 118 kts (roughly 130-140 mph) or higher, and each model reaches a pressure in the 930s or lower, so as of the 12Z run, it seems the consensus is a mid-end Category 4 storm.

 

[eep]

From what I gathered in the 12Z Hurricane models:

HWRF - 118.5 kts, 930.5 mb
HWRF Parent - 121.7 kts, 933.1 mb
HMON - 131.1 kts, 912.7 mb
HAFS-A - 176.5 kts, 877.4 mb
HAFS-A Parent - 161.7 kts, 879.0 mb
HAFS-B - 184.1 kts, 870.9 mb
HAFS-B Parent - 165.7 kts, 873.2 mb
GFS - 118.8 kts, 913.2 mb

12Z has 4 models going Cat 4, 4 models going Cat 5, every model in the 12Z run reaches at least 118 kts (roughly 130-140 mph) or higher, and each model reaches a pressure in the 930s or lower, so as of the 12Z run, it seems the consensus is a mid-end Category 4 storm.

Seems like it has reached cat 4 already, wouldn't be surprised given where it is to see it try to make a sub 900 mb run.

 

[slenker]

Seems like it has reached cat 4 already, wouldn't be surprised given where it is to see it try to make a sub 900 mb run.

Unless I’m misunderstanding what you’re saying, 92C is not a tropical storm yet and hasn’t been named. Genevieve reached C4 intensity and that’s in the EPAC - I expect both to reach C5 equivalent intensity though, especially Genevieve, which is completely bombing out at the moment.

 

[eep]

Unless I’m misunderstanding what you’re saying, 92C is not a tropical storm yet and hasn’t been named. Genevieve reached C4 intensity and that’s in the EPAC - I expect both to reach C5 equivalent intensity though, especially Genevieve, which is completely bombing out at the moment.

Lol ignore my comment, I assumed you were talking about Genevieve.

 

[Atlantic]

Seems like it has reached cat 4 already, wouldn't be surprised given where it is to see it try to make a sub 900 mb run.

I think you might mean Hurricane Genevieve, which is now a 130-kt Category 4 as of the newly released 00Z ATCF update,

What I was referring to above is the hurricane model runs for Invest 92C, which seems like it could become a powerful typhoon in the WPAC.

 

[Atlantic]

Lol ignore my comment, I assumed you were talking about Genevieve.

Genevieve now seems very likely to become a Category 5, just like its 2014 iteration did after it crossed the IDL.

 

[Atlantic]

Starting with Mekkhala in June, this year coincidentally features many of the same WPAC names that were used during the last Super El Niño in 2015. Just like in 2015, Mekkhala and Noul became typhoons (though Mekkhala was a Cat 1 typhoon in 2015, and Noul was a Cat 5 super typhoon in 2015, compared to Mekkhala being a Cat 4 typhoon this year and Noul being a Cat 2 typhoon this year)

Just like in 2015, we could see Dolphin (what name 92C is appears slated to take) become a long-track Category 5 Super Typhoon.

 

[Kds86z]

Genevieve now seems very likely to become a Category 5, just like its 2014 iteration did after it crossed the IDL.

Does Geneviev impress you @Atlantic

 

[Atlantic]

Does Geneviev impress you @Atlantic

It does, but it isn’t upper echelon like Melissa. Melissa was an incredible storm to track. Some storms are more beautiful than others, and this is one of the few.

Btw, this is may become the first Category 5 I have tracked in the NHC’s area of responsibility since Melissa last October, if it becomes a Category 5s

 

[Kds86z]

It does, but it isn’t upper echelon like Melissa. Melissa was an incredible storm to track. Some storms are more beautiful than others, and this is one of the few.

Btw, this is may become the first Category 5 I have tracked in the NHC’s area of responsibility since Melissa last October, if it becomes a Category 5s

Agree, nothing touches Melissa.

 

[Atlantic]

Invest 92C (briefly designated Invest 94W after crossing the IDL earlier today) has become Tropical Depression 12W just west of the International Date Line.

 

[Atlantic]

Invest 92C (briefly designated Invest 94W after crossing the IDL earlier today) has become Tropical Depression 12W just west of the International Date Line.
View attachment 54299

Breaking News!

Right out the gate the JTWC calls for a borderline Category 5 Super Typhoon on the first advisory on 12W, with the end of the forecast showing 135 kts, just shy of Category 5 intensity, and leaving room for more strengthening beyond the end of the forecast.