2026 Global Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[Kds86z]

From @Atlantic:

The Western Pacific is ahead of 1997 in ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) and number of named storms and major typhoons, however, 1997 had more typhoons up to this point.

2026 had produced 9 named storms (not counting Nuri, which was considered a TD by JTWC and Haishen, which was not recognized as a TC at all by the JTWC), 4 typhoons, 3 major typhoons and 2 super typhoons (both of which have been Category 5 on the SSHWS)

1997 had up to this point 9 named storms, 5 typhoons, 2 major typhoons, both of which had been Category 5 super typhoons.

If you count Nuri and Haishen, the number of named storms goes to 11, vs 1997’s 9 NS

 

[SouthFLwx]

From @Atlantic:

The Western Pacific is ahead of 1997 in ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) and number of named storms and major typhoons, however, 1997 had more typhoons up to this point.

2026 had produced 9 named storms (not counting Nuri, which was considered a TD by JTWC and Haishen, which was not recognized as a TC at all by the JTWC), 4 typhoons, 3 major typhoons and 2 super typhoons (both of which have been Category 5 on the SSHWS)

1997 had up to this point 9 named storms, 5 typhoons, 2 major typhoons, both of which had been Category 5 super typhoons.

If you count Nuri and Haishen, the number of named storms goes to 11, vs 1997’s 9 NS

there are definitely quite a few similarities between 1997 and this year for the WPAC, so I am vert confident on a hyperactive season

 

[JPWX]

Here's a very interesting fact: 2026 is the first season since 2003 in which all 5 Eastern Pacific named storms did not achieve hurricane intensity.

 

[Atlantic]

A disturbance is nearing the International Date Line in the Central Pacific with 40/70 chances in 2 days and 7 days respectively, and models seem to want it to become a powerful typhoon in the WPAC after it crosses the IDL. The CPHC expects it to become a tropical depression after crossing the dateline.

Should it become a TD (it would be designated 01C) or TS in the CPAC, the next name is Lala.

If it becomes a TD (it would be designated 12W) or a TS in the WPAC, the next name is Dolphin.

 

[Atlantic]

Invest 92C is crossing the IDL with 90/90 chances, and so it will become a TC in the WPAC basin.

 

[Kds86z]

Invest 92C is crossing the IDL with 90/90 chances, and so it will become a TC in the WPAC basin.

 

[slenker]

HAFS B right now has a 871 mb beast. The only models going sub-900 here are the HAFS models, so I’d like to see subsequent model runs and a little more consistency between them before believing that sub 900 is going to happen here. HWRF has a storm in the high 930s, but I’m not too sure which models tend to be the strongest at prediction when it comes to tropical weather.

I was confident Bavi would reach sub 900 (and it potentially could have), but agencies didn’t seem to think so.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Atlantic]

HAFS B right now has a 871 mb beast. The only models going sub-900 here are the HAFS models, so I’d like to see subsequent model runs and a little more consistency between them before believing that sub 900 is going to happen here. HWRF has a storm in the high 930s, but I’m not too sure which models tend to be the strongest at prediction when it comes to tropical weather.

I was confident Bavi would reach sub 900 (and it potentially could have), but agencies didn’t seem to think so.

From what I gathered in the 12Z Hurricane models:

HWRF - 118.5 kts, 930.5 mb
HWRF Parent - 121.7 kts, 933.1 mb
HMON - 131.1 kts, 912.7 mb
HAFS-A - 176.5 kts, 877.4 mb
HAFS-A Parent - 161.7 kts, 879.0 mb
HAFS-B - 184.1 kts, 870.9 mb
HAFS-B Parent - 165.7 kts, 873.2 mb
GFS - 118.8 kts, 913.2 mb

12Z has 4 models going Cat 4, 4 models going Cat 5, every model in the 12Z run reaches at least 118 kts (roughly 130-140 mph) or higher, and each model reaches a pressure in the 930s or lower, so as of the 12Z run, it seems the consensus is a mid-end Category 4 storm.

 

[eep]

From what I gathered in the 12Z Hurricane models:

HWRF - 118.5 kts, 930.5 mb
HWRF Parent - 121.7 kts, 933.1 mb
HMON - 131.1 kts, 912.7 mb
HAFS-A - 176.5 kts, 877.4 mb
HAFS-A Parent - 161.7 kts, 879.0 mb
HAFS-B - 184.1 kts, 870.9 mb
HAFS-B Parent - 165.7 kts, 873.2 mb
GFS - 118.8 kts, 913.2 mb

12Z has 4 models going Cat 4, 4 models going Cat 5, every model in the 12Z run reaches at least 118 kts (roughly 130-140 mph) or higher, and each model reaches a pressure in the 930s or lower, so as of the 12Z run, it seems the consensus is a mid-end Category 4 storm.

Seems like it has reached cat 4 already, wouldn't be surprised given where it is to see it try to make a sub 900 mb run.

 

[slenker]

Seems like it has reached cat 4 already, wouldn't be surprised given where it is to see it try to make a sub 900 mb run.

Unless I’m misunderstanding what you’re saying, 92C is not a tropical storm yet and hasn’t been named. Genevieve reached C4 intensity and that’s in the EPAC - I expect both to reach C5 equivalent intensity though, especially Genevieve, which is completely bombing out at the moment.