Severe WX Severe Weather Thread - 6/15/26 - 6/18/26

[buckeye05]

Bloomington cell is really trying to do it. If it tightens up just a little bit more and maintains inflow, it will drop another significant one.

 

[Kds86z]

1 in Wisconsin too.

Yep. Multiple homes damaged

 

[N0mz]

Inflow has cleared up big time in the last 5-10 minutes on the bloomington-columbus cell

 

[Kds86z]

 

[jiharris0220]

Hate to keep going on about this but this was another partial reason why I kept digging at it in the thread. It felt a bit unfair because this setup legitimately looked like it had all arms up ready to get on its knees and end it there. There was no possible way I thought at that moment we could verify this event. Mother Nature works her way into stuff though. Once again, a lot of my comments came from pent up frustrations over general forecasting decisions and also of course a risky call backfiring off here. Things did work after dark after all.

Obviously hindsight is 20/20. But there really was no reason to assume that the massively delayed timing wouldn’t end up as a bust.

It’s very difficult to know micro dynamics, (specifically regarding the surface inversion) and that it would erode just enough to allow these supercells to finally produce.

What I should’ve done personally was continuously monitor Skew Ts. Had I done that instead of checking out prematurely, this would’ve been easy to foresee.

 

[N0mz]

Also if you please refer to my signature

 

[bckhd2]

Bloomington cell working really hard at it. Looks like velo tightening up a little

 

[DanLarsen34]

So far, based on radar presentation.
1 sig tor in Iowa.
2 sig tor in Illinois
1 sig, tor and 1 vi torn in IN
So that’s 4 sig tors and 1 vi tor.
So still on the lower end of verification and no long trackers, but far from a bust.
The surface inversion that done in tornadogenesis earlier in the evening had largely went away due to sufficient mixing from persistent warm air advection from the intensifying LLJ. This allowed supercells to finally become surface based and tap into that high streamwise vorticity.
Obviously though, it didn’t go away completely, as the air is still pretty dry at the LFC, which most certainly is causing these cells to become outflow dominant, which again thwarted long trackers.
Overall though, this event verified, barely.

Definitely was unwise to call the event off, although to my and others defense, there was no reason to suggest otherwise as both the dryline completely failed to produce tornadoes and the boundary riders didn’t start to produce until after dark, which absolutely none of the cams (specifically today) were forecasting that scenario.
View attachment 53648

Trey’s video breakdown of the setup might be worth revisiting after tonight. I believe he mentioned the full tornado threat may not materialize until 6-7 PM
in his video earlier today based on what some of the models were suggesting.

 

[eep]

Bloomington is about to go.

 

[jiharris0220]

Trey’s video breakdown of the setup might be worth revisiting after tonight. I believe he mentioned the full tornado threat may not materialize until 6-7 PM
in his video earlier today based on what some of the models were suggesting.

I don’t watch him, but even that timeline ended up being almost 2 hours too early.

 

[warneagle]

well I left for a couple of hours and came back and there were 20 more pages on the thread so I guess the bust talk was a bit premature

 

[DanLarsen34]

Nothing severe yet up here, but this trailing convection over me in Ozaukee county has intensified more than I expected to see.

 

[Maxis_s]

Just realized, we have debris fallout from the Effingham tornado being pulled into the circulation of the new Bloomington rotation. Holy smokes.

 

[buckeye05]

That Indiana cell has been on the verge for a while now. Surprised it hasn't done it yet.

 

[jiharris0220]

Very strong meso on this cell near Marshal.

 

[warneagle]

That Indiana cell has been on the verge for a while now. Surprised it hasn't done it yet.

yeah the rotation looks strong but the actual couplet is still pretty broad

 

[jiharris0220]

yeah the rotation looks strong but the actual couplet is still pretty broad

Inflow is beginning to increase, it may do it soon.

 

[N0mz]

Greens finally touching reds on the latest velo for columbus

 

[buckeye05]

yeah the rotation looks strong but the actual couplet is still pretty broad

A little tighter on the latest scan. It's trying.

 

[cincywx]

The Bloomington cell's current trajectory keeps it south of Cincinnati but any eastward turn is going to bring it uncomfortably close to mby. Would certainly love to see this thing die out sooner rather than later so I can comfortably go to bed.