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Severe WX Severe Weather Thread - 6/15/26 - 6/18/26

buckeye05 said:
Same here. While technically speaking this wasn't the same tier of event it could have been, it's been significant enough that making those kinds of comparisons it doesn't really matter at this stage. It was bad enough, and I'll learn from this one. My bad everyone
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Eh, when you think about it, it couldn't be a TalkWeather thread without that type of debacle. We move on and we learn.
 
So far, based on radar presentation.
1 sig tor in Iowa.
2 sig tor in Illinois
1 sig, tor and 1 vi torn in IN
So that’s 4 sig tors and 1 vi tor.
So still on the lower end of verification and no long trackers, but far from a bust.
The surface inversion that done in tornadogenesis earlier in the evening had largely went away due to sufficient mixing from persistent warm air advection from the intensifying LLJ. This allowed supercells to finally become surface based and tap into that high streamwise vorticity.
Obviously though, it didn’t go away completely, as the air is still pretty dry at the LFC, which most certainly is causing these cells to become outflow dominant, which again thwarted long trackers.
Overall though, this event verified, barely.

Definitely was unwise to call the event off, although to my and others defense, there was no reason to suggest otherwise as both the dryline completely failed to produce tornadoes and the boundary riders didn’t start to produce until after dark, which absolutely none of the cams (specifically today) were forecasting that scenario.
1781749888075.png
 
jiharris0220 said:
So far, based on radar presentation.
1 sig tor in Iowa.
2 sig tor in Illinois
1 sig, tor and 1 vi torn in IN
So that’s 4 sig tors and 1 vi tor.
So still on the lower end of verification and no long trackers, but far from a bust.
The surface inversion that done in tornadogenesis earlier in the evening had largely went away due to sufficient mixing from persistent warm air advection from the intensifying LLJ. This allowed supercells to finally become surface based and tap into that high streamwise vorticity.
Obviously though, it didn’t go away completely, as the air is still pretty dry at the LFC, which most certainly is causing these cells to become outflow dominant, which again thwarted long trackers.
Overall though, this event verified, barely.

Definitely was unwise to call the event off, although to my and others defense, there was no reason to suggest otherwise as both the dryline completely failed to produce tornadoes and the boundary riders didn’t start to produce until after dark, which absolutely none of the cams (specifically today) were forecasting that scenario.
View attachment 53648
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Hate to keep going on about this but this was another partial reason why I kept digging at it in the thread. It felt a bit unfair because this setup legitimately looked like it had all arms up ready to get on its knees and end it there. There was no possible way I thought at that moment we could verify this event. Mother Nature works her way into stuff though. Once again, a lot of my comments came from pent up frustrations over general forecasting decisions and also of course a risky call backfiring off here. Things did work after dark after all.
 
jiharris0220 said:
So far, based on radar presentation.
1 sig tor in Iowa.
2 sig tor in Illinois
1 sig, tor and 1 vi torn in IN
So that’s 4 sig tors and 1 vi tor.
So still on the lower end of verification and no long trackers, but far from a bust.
The surface inversion that done in tornadogenesis earlier in the evening had largely went away due to sufficient mixing from persistent warm air advection from the intensifying LLJ. This allowed supercells to finally become surface based and tap into that high streamwise vorticity.
Obviously though, it didn’t go away completely, as the air is still pretty dry at the LFC, which most certainly is causing these cells to become outflow dominant, which again thwarted long trackers.
Overall though, this event verified, barely.

Definitely was unwise to call the event off, although to my and others defense, there was no reason to suggest otherwise as both the dryline completely failed to produce tornadoes and the boundary riders didn’t start to produce until after dark, which absolutely none of the cams (specifically today) were forecasting that scenario.
View attachment 53648
Click to expand...
1 in Wisconsin too.
 
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