What did it output for recent outbreaks, just for reference?
-
Welcome to TalkWeather! We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion. CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER
Severe WX Severe Weather Thread - 6/15/26 - 6/18/26
- Thread starter WeathermanLeprechaun
- Start date
for reference, the output yesterday was as high as the output for 5/16 last year. This is higher than yesterday.
And it's a day ahead. Wow.
Seeing a lot of people also say this is similar to Palm Sunday. Extremely high shear, moderate cape, discrete mode and similar trough.
I was thinking of Palm Sunday after looking at UH streaks on the hrrr, though I doubt we are gonna get 18 violent tornadoes though.
Still is a defecation-worthy stormnet run though
The 09z RAP is a lot crazier than the 06z HRRR. It's actually unbelievable. 06z HRRR helicity swaths were not nearly what you'd expect with a set up like this. Definitely makes me think it sees some sort of fly in the ointment. Let's see if the 12z resolves that issue and adds a little more clarity.
warneagle
Member
That hodograph is wild. 900 m2s2 SRH in mid-June, what are we even doing here.
Yup, 12z resolved the helicity swaths and STP. It is rapidly trending up with every run. Not what you want to see at all. Especially right over the Chicago metro.
Last edited:
PLUS a 50 kt low level jet and 75 kt effective shear. What are we even doing!? It doesn't seem real.
warneagle
Member
Obviously not taking it completely literally but a UH streak that intense across an area that’s that densely populated is still scary. Hopefully those folks don’t have warning fatigue from the last few weeks.
jiharris0220
Member
(This is specifically about dryline convection and not convection near the warm front and triple point)
The hrrr continues to trend even more discrete with dry line convection, to the point where a lot of it actually dissipates before it has time to do anything. Considering how strong forcing will be, this scenario is questionable at best, and I assume once we get within 12 hours of the event it will trend more semi discrete.
Of course, it isn’t doing this for no reason, the dryline in question is pretty diffuse, (dew points are still in the 50-60s behind it) which heavily favors discrete storm modes. The forcing produced by the dryline itself is very weak, slightly drier air behind slightly moisture air in most cases would be a blue sky bust. But again, the jet-streak is superimposed over this dryline, so synoptic forcing is extreme, so expect storms to sustain themselves along it.
The hrrr continues to trend even more discrete with dry line convection, to the point where a lot of it actually dissipates before it has time to do anything. Considering how strong forcing will be, this scenario is questionable at best, and I assume once we get within 12 hours of the event it will trend more semi discrete.
Of course, it isn’t doing this for no reason, the dryline in question is pretty diffuse, (dew points are still in the 50-60s behind it) which heavily favors discrete storm modes. The forcing produced by the dryline itself is very weak, slightly drier air behind slightly moisture air in most cases would be a blue sky bust. But again, the jet-streak is superimposed over this dryline, so synoptic forcing is extreme, so expect storms to sustain themselves along it.
Last edited:
- Admin
- #192
Tornado Warning currently for St. Tammany Parish in Louisiana right now.
www.wdsu.com
Tornado Warning issued for St. Tammany Parish until 9:30 a.m.
Tornado Warning issued for St. Tammany Parish until 9:30 a.m.
www.wdsu.com
DanLarsen34
Member
You almost never see helicity values this high period. You typically only see helicity values like this during cold-season events with much lower instability than this. The exceptions to this are THOSE days
DanLarsen34
Member
I might be off base with this, but is the lack of intensity in the helicity tracks a result of the lack of lower level instability? It’s worth noting in this particular sounding that 3CAPE is only 3. That’s very low for a potential tornadic environment
Not to mention those height falls are extremely compact and deep. I think the rate these will evolve from blips to mature super cells could be shocking.
bckhd2
Member
One of the hallmarks of those higher-end days is the ability to get stuff rooted and rotating extremely quickly. Not saying this event will be anything like 4/27/11, but that was one of those days where tiny rain showers would show up on radar and basically the next scan they'd be rotating.
I'm actually kind of surprised how small the threat area is. You'd expect a high-end set up like this to be way more widespread.
Seasons of weather
Member
Definitely higher threats south of Chicago but curious what sever risk will exist near the metro with the warm front being forecasted to be so close
- Thread starter
- #200
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
I'll be more explicit. High end, violent tornado threat tomorrow with any established cell. These kinematics don't come around often. When they do, bad stuff happens. Very nasty situation on hold tmrw and i think a High Risk is trending more likely.