Severe WX Severe Weather Threat June 6-14

[Kds86z]

Latest:
SPC isn't messing around with this one. A Day 3 30% hatched area for significant severe weather stretching from the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes definitely catches the eye. Still plenty of details to work out, but this is the kind of outlook that makes you start paying closer attention to future model runs and forecast updates.

 

[akt1985]

Now we might have to extend this thread to the 13th as the SPC has a Day 5 severe outlook for Saturday in parts of Nebraska and Kansas.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[JayF]

Now we might have to extend this thread to the 13th as the SPC has a Day 5 severe outlook for Saturday in parts of Nebraska and Kansas.

I will go ahead and edit it. I think we should take it out to the 14th just to be safe. Anything after that lets start a new thread for it.

 

[VultureDirge89]

I'm on the last 15 minutes of my shift at work and really bored so I'm starting a betting pool on watch probabilities.

60/50 tor, 70/60 wind, 60/40 hail. Buy me a beer if I'm right.

 

[Kds86z]

Latest day 3:


..EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA

LATEST GOES IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A BAND OF
DEEPENING CUMULUS WITHIN A PLUME OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
(DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S) THROUGH THE UPPER RED RIVER
VALLEY OF THE NORTH. ADDITIONALLY, A SUBTLE MCV - THE REMNANTS OF
PRIOR CONVECTION OVER NE - IS CURRENTLY OVERSPREADING THE REGION AND
MAY PROVIDE ADEQUATE FORCING FOR ASCENT FOR INITIATION WITHIN THE
WEAKLY CAPPED AND HIGHLY BUOYANT AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
CONDITIONAL, DISCRETE CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ZONE
COULD POSE A TORNADO THREAT AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN THROUGH
THE DAY. THE 10% TORNADO CONTOUR WAS EXPANDED EASTWARD INTO WESTERN
MN TO BETTER ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL.

 

[Kds86z]

Hey this forum is slow again.

I will go ahead and edit it. I think we should take it out to the 14th just to be safe. Anything after that lets start a new thread for it.

 

[JayF]

Hey this forum is slow again.

We are aware and are working on it.

 

[Kds86z]

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA

* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 435 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT
CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES AND A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 85
MPH LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3
INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY THIS
AFTERNOON AND BECOME SEVERE. THE STRONGER STORMS INITIALLY WILL
LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR POSING A RISK FOR TORNADOES, LARGE TO
VERY LARGE HAIL, AND SEVERE GUSTS. AS MORE STORMS DEVELOP THIS
EVENING AND AN ELONGATED LINEAR CLUSTER EVOLVES, THE SEVERE-WIND
THREAT WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE PREVALENT. SEVERE GUSTS RANGING FROM
60-85 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER OUTFLOW SURGES AND MORE
INTENSE CORES. A LINGERING RISK FOR TORNADOES MAY CONTINUE WELL
INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Tennie]

Tornado Watch is now out for the Dakotas. 50/30 tornado probabilities:

 

[Kds86z]