Severe Weather Threat May 16-18, 2026

[DanLarsen34]

I'm not sure what's going on here, but we have a 15% hatched tornado risk on the SPC page but only an enhanced risk?

I had to do a brief refresher on this myself yesterday. Here’s how the new conditional intensity hatching affects what level of risk they put out.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[DanLarsen34]

This storm that’s approaching Dane County may need a tornado warning soon. I am guessing it may not be surface-based, but it’s showing increasingly intense rotation on both the La Crosse and Milwaukee radars.

It just went severe warned as I was writing this, and the storm back to the west of this is rotating now as well.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

tor warn in WI/IL border and a svr-c tor pot to its north

 

[Beachwalker]

Looked like a few brief cc pixels about 20 mins ago.

 

[Beachwalker]

Madison now has a storm that is warned. 2026 again!

 

[Kds86z]

From new day 1

..SOUTH-CENTRAL KS INTO THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OK

SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AT LEAST ISOLATED HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL KS SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE/WESTERN OK.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH CAN BE SUSTAINED WOULD LIKELY BE
SUPERCELLULAR AND CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS, INCLUDING LARGE TO
VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AFTER 00Z
SUPPORTS A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A STRONG TORNADO.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

 

[Kds86z]

You beat me by seconds.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

Moderate expanded with the 1:30pm est update

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

Ok that happened def a expect a decently probed toa very soon

 

[Weatherguyx]

Looks like he believes the marginal risk should be more down south. Guessing the SPC just doesn't it see at this time

 

[MidTNWx]

View attachment 52873
Moderate expanded with the 1:30pm est update

Maybe reshaped, rather than expanded. Eastern sections of the risk area trimmed back a little, Topeka now out of the moderate risk.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

New tornado watch is a 70/50.

 

[UpperLevelLOL]

Here's the area covered

 

[Weatherguyx]