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Severe Weather Threat 4/27-4/28

slenker said:
I really thought that the Poplar Bluff storms were going to look better when they got closer to the radars, but no. They look like slop. Today was a prime example of a true bust.
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This is one of the biggest busts I can recall tracking in my 15 years of following events closely. 5/20/2019 may still hold that mantle for me, but many of us thought the floor for this event was at least a few intense tornadoes across the highest risk areas today and we may not have had a single tornado happen during the PDS watch period.
 
DanLarsen34 said:
This is one of the biggest busts I can recall tracking in my 15 years of following events closely. 5/20/2019 may still hold that mantle for me, but many of us thought the floor for this event was at least a few intense tornadoes across the highest risk areas today.
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I certainly consider it the biggest bust I’ve tracked, including 4/28 last year. Although, I don’t have nearly as much experience as many others here, so it’s not really saying a lot.
 
Mesoscale Discussion 0586
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1009 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Areas affected...northern Arkansas...southeast Missouri...and far
western Kentucky

Concerning...Tornado Watch 162...166...

Valid 280309Z - 280515Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 162, 166 continues.

SUMMARY...A transition to a mix of convective modes is ongoing.
While the potential for severe hail may be decreasing, the threat
for tornadoes and severe winds continues.

DISCUSSION...Regional reflectivity data shows gradual upscale growth
across north-central AR as new convection develops along a cold
front. Initially semi-discrete supercells across southern MO have
recently shown some signs of weakening and/or poor organization -
likely the result of being displaced behind an outflow boundary,
which is becoming more apparent in velocity imagery. Further
southwest, convective clusters and semi-discrete supercells continue
to develop across north-central AR.

This activity continues to spread east into a very favorable
environment for organized convection with KLZK and KNQA VWPs now
sampling 0-1 km SRH between 450-500 m2/s2. The loss of discrete
supercells should modulate the potential for very large hail to some
degree, but even with a transition to a mix of convective bands and
embedded supercells, the environment will support the potential for
tornadoes (potentially strong) and swaths of severe winds. Latest
high-res guidance, including recent WoFS ensemble runs, suggest that
the greatest tornado/severe wind threat will reside across northern
AR and southeast MO into adjacent portions of IL, TN, and KY over
the next couple of hours.

..Moore.. 04/28/2026
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N0mz said:
170 max on this is nasty work lmfao
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It would be very 2026 for there to be a random strong tornado along this portion of the line, at this time during the event. Also, I would post a picture but cannot, the Mountain View, AR storm does genuinely have the best velocity couplet I’ve seen all day on a supercell.

EDIT: The velocity couplet is very, very good, wouldn’t be surprised at all if it’s strong and down.
 
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