Severe Weather Threat 4/27-4/28

[Muwx]

This is both almost certainly untrue, and irresponsible to say.

It’s a message board; it’s not that serious but it’s also not going to be close to a repeat

 

[Kds86z]

 

[UncleJuJu98]

I got help today at work. I'll be off early just in time to watch this big tornado day unfold. Thank goodness.

I just wish image attachment is working, because I imagine there's going to be some gnarly velocity couplets I wanna share

 

[jackhutwx]

My apologies, everyone. I deleted the post, I'll think better next time lol.

 

[Muwx]

The main rain shield in MO is screaming east at 50-60mph.
Timing is still a factor today. Another 30 or 60 minutes of atmospheric recovery could make a big difference in the result.

I think there's a small but non-zero chance we see a High risk today centered around St Louis, especially if the rain shield clears the state by noon.

I think the back building line is the limiting factor. If that pushes south at all, it’s going to cause problems with the set up.

 

[Kds86z]

My apologies, everyone. I deleted the post, I'll think better next time lol.

All good.

 

[lake.effect]

I think the back building line is the limiting factor. If that pushes south at all, it’s going to cause problems with the set up.

It's still only 9am in St Louis. The back edge of the convection is near Colombia and pushing E/SE pretty quickly.

By noon, the line should be around St Louis. If it clears St. Louis by 1-2pm, there should be ample time for destabilization in the moderate risk area.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Ok, I normally dislike watching/listening to the generalized streamers during events, but due to some RL emergency stuff, I'm going to have to be driving on I-90 from southern MN to Dane county, likely somewhere between 14 hours from now to maybe even as late as 23 hours from now. Who should I listen to while driving? Basically, who tends to be the most chill and comprehensive? From what I do know, I'm leaning towards Ryan Hall? I could also do NOAA radio, but that feels more reactive rather proactive/more difficult to follow while driving.

Really hoping that the northern side just doesn't have the juice. Thanks to everyone sharing their thoughts. The forecast discussion from La Crosse agrees with what I've seen here in that the evening will depend on how the morning goes. I'll definitely be checking in here to get some summaries of how the morning stuff plays out since I won't be able to track it myself.

Going against the grain here and very strongly recommending you look up whatever local channels there are for the region you're driving through and finding their livestreams. Depending on the state you may even be able to find something on AM radio. Local meteorologists are always going to be your best bet for up to the minute information in your local area. Ryan and Max are going to be all over the place today and there's no way they'll be able to give your area all the attention it deserves.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

My guess for today is that the moderate driven tornado chances could be dragged closer to north Mississippi and Tennessee and more into Arkansas. I don't think the current outlook does justice for the threat in parts of the southeast.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

It's still only 9am in St Louis. The back edge of the convection is near Colombia and pushing E/SE pretty quickly.

By noon, the line should be around St Louis. If it clears St. Louis by 1-2pm, there should be ample time for destabilization in the moderate risk area.

This atmosphere will have no problems whatsoever to recovery Promise u. This is not March

 

[Kds86z]

I got help today at work. I'll be off early just in time to watch this big tornado day unfold. Thank goodness.

I just wish image attachment is working, because I imagine there's going to be some gnarly velocity couplets I wanna share

Oh good dude you can join.

 

[slenker]

The southern part of the line is moving much slower than the northern part, I would imagine that’s got a shot at limiting destabilization, but I’m not sure.

 

[Ozonelayer]

The southern part of the line is moving much slower than the northern part, I would imagine that’s got a shot at limiting destabilization, but I’m not sure.

To me it seems like its dying. Its a lot less condensed on reflectivity and it has falling echo tops.

 

[Kds86z]

Oh Also anniversary of Vilonia today. Let’s hope today doesn’t add another bad event historically.

 

[ColdFront]

The southern part of the line is moving much slower than the northern part, I would imagine that’s got a shot at limiting destabilization, but I’m not sure.

The fact that it keeps training and regenerating, to me, will seal more northern parts off from destabilization if that trend continues.

I’ve seen these big rain shields north of a warm sector countless times. You can have something like 3/24/23 (Rolling Fork), 5/20/19, or 3/15 last year where countless Mississippi cells that didn’t make a hard right turn essentially just slammed right into the rain shield.

 

[Muwx]

It's still only 9am in St Louis. The back edge of the convection is near Colombia and pushing E/SE pretty quickly.

By noon, the line should be around St Louis. If it clears St. Louis by 1-2pm, there should be ample time for destabilization in the moderate risk area.

I think that’s part of the problem though, right? That line extends back west of Chanute Kansas. So even if it pushes south of STL, I think it could be a limiting factor in mass response to the north. It’s far from certain but it’s something I’m definitely watching.

 

[warneagle]

The area south and west of the MDT has already cleared out quite a bit, temperatures into the 70s with dews in the upper 60s.

 

[KCweatherboy]

That's a pretty incredible sounding for 12z actually! It's just missing LLLRs and 3CAPE!

 

[klouzek7079]

Looks like they also expanded the enhanced area as well. I haven't had the chance to look at the runs myself but a westward expansion of the moderate would be low, yes?