Kds86z
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THE EVOLUTION OF FEATURES FROM D2 MONDAY INTO D3 TUESDAY, INCLUDING
ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND ONGOING STORMS ECT REMAIN
UNCERTAIN AND THUSLY LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE D3 FORECAST.
IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE PARAMETER SPACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD
FRONT FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS NORTHWARD INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS, GIVEN
STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THESE WOULD
LIKELY POSE SOME RISK FOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND,
AND PERHAPS TORNADOES. SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR/NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY, WITH
A RISK FOR ELEVATED STORMS AND LARGE HAIL. IT IS LIKELY GIVE THE
ORIENTATION OF SHEAR PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY THAT
CLUSTERING/UPSCALE GROWTH WILL BE FAVORED THROUGH TIME, WITH PERHAPS
SEVERAL CLUSTERS/BOWING SEGMENTS AND SOME INCREASE OF THE DAMAGING
WIND THREAT INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDDLE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE EVENING. A BROAD 15% AREA WAS MAINTAINED, IN ALIGNMENT
WITH D3 ML CSU/NSSL GUIDANCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER
PROBABILITIES MAY BE WARRANTED AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.
out
THE EVOLUTION OF FEATURES FROM D2 MONDAY INTO D3 TUESDAY, INCLUDING
ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND ONGOING STORMS ECT REMAIN
UNCERTAIN AND THUSLY LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE D3 FORECAST.
IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE PARAMETER SPACE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COLD
FRONT FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS NORTHWARD INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS, GIVEN
STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THESE WOULD
LIKELY POSE SOME RISK FOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND,
AND PERHAPS TORNADOES. SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR/NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY, WITH
A RISK FOR ELEVATED STORMS AND LARGE HAIL. IT IS LIKELY GIVE THE
ORIENTATION OF SHEAR PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY THAT
CLUSTERING/UPSCALE GROWTH WILL BE FAVORED THROUGH TIME, WITH PERHAPS
SEVERAL CLUSTERS/BOWING SEGMENTS AND SOME INCREASE OF THE DAMAGING
WIND THREAT INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDDLE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE EVENING. A BROAD 15% AREA WAS MAINTAINED, IN ALIGNMENT
WITH D3 ML CSU/NSSL GUIDANCE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER
PROBABILITIES MAY BE WARRANTED AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.
