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Severe WX Severe Weather 4/24-4/26

OhOkayThen said:
NAM showing supercells well into the overnight for Monday. Definitely a potent environment. Figured the main tornadic threat would be E MO, SW IL. But if NAM is remotely right, strong tornadoes and supercells could be an issue for a much wider area.
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The nam is on to something. Most west Kentucky parts west tn even got problems big time back into most Arkansas
 
From what I gauge looking at 00z NAM, both Monday and Tuesday could be big days.
 
If you look at the soundings on the 00z NAM where there’s hotspots of STP for Monday, there’s a good amount of them with absolutely disgusting 3CAPE paired with kinematics that are more than strong enough to produce significant tornadoes. I pulled one with 279 J/kg paired with 300 m2/s2… IIRC it was an STP hot spot in southern Iowa.
 
slenker said:
If you look at the soundings on the 00z NAM where there’s hotspots of STP for Monday, there’s a good amount of them with absolutely disgusting 3CAPE paired with kinematics that are more than strong enough to produce significant tornadoes. I pulled one with 279 J/kg paired with 300 m2/s2… IIRC it was an STP hot spot in southern Iowa.
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That’s a violent tornado recipe for sure
 
JPWX said:
From what I gauge looking at 00z NAM, both Monday and Tuesday could be big days.
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00Z GFS seems to suggest a long-duration, multi-round event Monday night through Wednesday morning across the MS/AL/GA/TN corridor. More or less in line with what has been suggested for some time, though the past few runs have looked more potent for each wave of convection than earlier ones. Obviously, somewhat hard to know what this actually looks like because it's GFS and not a CAM, but it certainly appears to be a series of robust convective complexes. Instability early Tuesday across the Southeast is depicted as poor, but this is definitely one of those situations where storms can take advantage of very limited thermodynamics, and I'm not confident that GFS has a good handle on it. Tuesday afternoon's storms will actually have some substantial instability to work with. Additionally, there's persistent hints of possible weak secondary low formation, which could further support convective development and potentially enhancing low-level shear just enough to support tornadoes. Overall, this is definitely something to closely watch for folks in Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia - I don't intend to downplay the potential hazards here by any means, and I'm rather worried about the likely impacts of this system further north into the Middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley.
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A lot of notifications that pop up and the messages that are supposed to go with them are completely hidden for me all of a sudden. Weird.

I guess I just can’t use this site right now cause something is broken. I’ve tried everything I can think of to fix it but nothing has worked.
 
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