Severe WX Severe Weather 4/11 - 4/15

[Ozonelayer]

Given where the Union Center tornado passed over, I unfortunately think there is still a good bit of damage to be seen. The roads it hit were littered with isolated homes and we have yet to see damage from Union Center itself.

 

[Central Ohio Wx]

Hearing the Union Center house was anchored with concrete nails instead of proper bolts. If this is true, I don’t think an EF4 rating is likely. We’ll find out soon enough.

Union Center is also in the WFO that almost rated Boscobel EF4, so I wouldn’t be too sure.

 

[DanLarsen34]

Are there any details on the potential Lisbon/Sussex tornado from yesterday? There was a CC drop with that storm, but I haven’t seen anyone share any damage updates from that storm here.

 

[DanLarsen34]

Are there any details on the potential Lisbon/Sussex tornado from yesterday? There was a CC drop with that storm, but I haven’t seen anyone share any damage updates from that storm here.

Replying to my own post: here are some damage pics from that tornado. The damage is a lot less intense than I thought it might be given the intensity of the velocity couplet, as well as the debris signature that came with that.https://www.jsonline.com/picture-gallery/news/2026/04/15/tornado-damages-lisbon-presbyterian-church-in-sussex-and-other-properties/89618545007/

 

[ColdFront]

The fact we still can’t post pictures is making aftermath analysis or other talking points much harder right now.

 

[ColdFront]

One last comment on this topic and I’ll shut up. I think it comes down to a weird stigma about calling b*st. Yes, premature b*st calls are annoying, but sometimes it’s ok to call it like it is. I’d go as far as to say I find it more annoying when we are 90% through an underperforming high-ceiling event with next to no red dots on the SPC map and nothing but linear slop on radar and someone mentions that the event has underperformed only to be met with a bunch of “How dare you say that! How egregiously irresponsible! This isn’t over yet!” type responses, even when it’s very clear it’s just not gonna happen.

I’ll never forget the morning of the Tylertown EF4, which was an event with a very, VERY high and historic ceiling. I recall that me and another user pointed out how multiple CAMs and radar trends were trending away from the modeled violent tornado producing long-track supercell swarm, and trending towards a still significant, but sloppier and more joe average Dixie outbreak. My god it was like we were accused of summoning the devil himself, and were basically told to zip it, disregard any hints at a downtrend, and “lock in” (lol). Guess what happened? A still significant but rather sloppy average Dixie outbreak that produced one violent tornado and a smattering of sigtors. The way it played out pretty much mirrored the CAM solutions. All we were saying was that this event may not reach the insane ceiling, and even though we were correct, people were NOT having it.

It’s one thing to jump down someone’s throat for calling bust, but it’s gotten to the point where pointing out limiting factors and downtrends causes people to get very reactive. I think it’s silly and I refuse to bend to that weird stigma. When an event does not reach its ceiling of potential, people should be able to point it out without pushback.

Can’t agree with this more. I was that other user lol. When the FV3 is showing a messy, over-convected warm sector, then you know storm mode has trended into major fly in the ointment territory. That’s exactly what happened.

The funny thing is, we weren’t the only ones saying the set up had downtrended. I distinctly mentioned Brad Arnold’s morning pre-Chase video and Trey saying the set up had downtrended some in his morning video. Mentioning that was like kicking a hornet’s nest. “It’s now cast mode now bro” and “I don’t care what so and so is saying”.

I think the best approach when looking at set ups is to look at flies in the ointment first, then look at what the set up has going for it. I don’t think there’s any harm in pointing out trends or sloppy storm mode. The over dramatic reactions to that, like you said, are more annoying than the users who say something is a bu$t.

 

[Schoeppeya]

Can’t agree with this more. I was that other user lol. When the FV3 is showing a messy, over-convected warm sector, then you know storm mode has trended into major fly in the ointment territory. That’s exactly what happened.

The funny thing is, we weren’t the only ones saying the set up had downtrended. I distinctly mentioned Brad Arnold’s morning pre-Chase video and Trey saying the set up had downtrended some in his morning video. Mentioning that was like kicking a hornet’s nest. “It’s now cast mode now bro” and “I don’t care what so and so is saying”.

I think the best approach when looking at set ups is to look at flies in the ointment first, then look at what the set up has going for it. I don’t think there’s any harm in pointing out trends or sloppy storm mode. The over dramatic reactions to that, like you said, are more annoying than the users who say something is a bu$t.

With all of these events if people can just keep in mind things will always tend to trend towards the mean and away from the extreme events they'd be a lot less married to the extreme outcomes.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Ozonelayer]

So, decided to look around and the slabbed home as well as other corresponding damage are west and north of Union Center, meaning it likely missed town entirely, which is great news as it was undoubtedly violent.

 

[Muwx]

Interesting threat today. Trey is questioning why there is a sig tore risk over the southern portion of the risk area, and then the SPC comes out and expands the sig tore risk area

 

[klouzek7079]

So far it's been cloudy all morning here along the Arkansas border in SW Missouri. Unless it clears out soon I don't have high hopes for this evening here

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

After tons of rain this morning it's very sunny here in Iowa. Definitely concerned.

 

[Ledian]

That severe warned storm in the Carroll area is nasty. Consistent 70-75+ dBZ values and i've even seen 80+ on two scans.

 

[Weatherguyx]

This was far from a bu$t. I honestly think everyone is still getting calibrated to the new hatched cig areas and what they actually correlate to in a real world event.

Interesting threat today. Trey is questioning why there is a sig tore risk over the southern portion of the risk area, and then the SPC comes out and expands the sig tore risk area

Cig tor seems to be a common theme now. Hatched locations use to be more rare, now it's pretty much almost anytime severe is forecasted

 

[jiharris0220]

This is what the 3km NAM shows for middle NY tomorrow btw.

 

[Kds86z]

Tornadoes somewhere today but gonna be now casting.

 

[Kds86z]

Sister sent me pic of tornado on ground by Freeport last night where she lives . Someone took it. Can’t share it because yeah but.

 

[ThatGuy;P]

What I really want to see is damage photos from the Mound City tornado from yesterday. From this article, it seems like it caused pretty bad damage but won't be fully rated as such due to poor construction quality (Mobile homes)

Tornado causes 'extensive' damage as it tears through southern Linn County

By Roger Sims, Journal staff [email protected] CITY – "The damage is extensive." That was the assessment of Linn County Sheriff James Akes in the wake of a tornado that ripped across southern Linn County on Monday evening.Akes in an interview Monday night said the tornado left a...

www.linncountyjournal.com

Talk about an overstatement. Next time I wait for damage photos before putting in my two cents.

 

[jackhutwx]

ig they upgraded a big section of the tornado risk today, 5% cig 1 for basically for most of the slight risk area.

 

[Kds86z]