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Severe WX Severe Weather 4/11 - 4/15

The fact we still can’t post pictures is making aftermath analysis or other talking points much harder right now.
We've reworked the plug-in that was in use in the dev environment. The only thing holding us back is not breaking all the pics that were already posted. Hopefully we have a script for that this afternoon.

Until then I suggest using https://imgur.com/upload
 
Wow that massive storm came up to the very edge of my city before skirting off just northwest, lucky. It looked like the type of storm that could have produced a strong tornado so I got a little scared...

I don't know if there will be more redevelopment in central Iowa or if this is it for the day (at least in terms of the tornado risk specifically).
 
That's possibly the most impressive wind rowing so far this year
Teachable moment right here. So this Romanwx guy is actually demonstrating some pretty textbook tornado enthusiast damage over-analysis right here. The biggest issue here is him seeing things that just aren’t there, and trying to draw conclusions from a photo that isn’t close enough to make out what he’s trying to point out. First off, what he’s calling wind rowing just looks like a pretty typical debris scatter path. True rowing manifests as long distance, dramatic linear striations of debris, and one of the biggest elements of true wind rowing that everyone forgets, is the presence of numerous pieces of lumber left oriented end to end in the same direction. This photo isn’t close or clear enough to show that, and the scatter path is quite short distance wise. He’s also apparently trying to also say there’s a dislodged front porch, when there literally nothing to suggest that. And perhaps one of my biggest pet peeves, trying to determine tree debarking in a photo where none is visible, and the trees are so far away there is no way to draw such a conclusion. Conclusive damage analysis can be done via photos on the internet, but this kind of thing gives it a bad reputation.
 
Union Center is also in the WFO that almost rated Boscobel EF4, so I wouldn’t be too sure.
Yeah that’s a fair point and I did hint at that. I’m just so used to WFOs usually honing in on whatever they can to go lower bound.

Can’t agree with this more. I was that other user lol. When the FV3 is showing a messy, over-convected warm sector, then you know storm mode has trended into major fly in the ointment territory. That’s exactly what happened.

The funny thing is, we weren’t the only ones saying the set up had downtrended. I distinctly mentioned Brad Arnold’s morning pre-Chase video and Trey saying the set up had downtrended some in his morning video. Mentioning that was like kicking a hornet’s nest. “It’s now cast mode now bro” and “I don’t care what so and so is saying”.

I think the best approach when looking at set ups is to look at flies in the ointment first, then look at what the set up has going for it. I don’t think there’s any harm in pointing out trends or sloppy storm mode. The over dramatic reactions to that, like you said, are more annoying than the users who say something is a bu$t.
Oh that was you! I forgot lol.
 

It's so sunny and quiet here you wouldn't know just southeast a huge supercell is raging, though I think it is actually not over Zearing, but on Iowa Center/Cambridge/Maxwell.
 
927
NOUS43 KARX 152015
PNSARX
WIZ043-053-160815-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
315 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

...Preliminary Storm Survey Results for April 14, 2026 Tornado
Near Union Center, Wisconsin...

The preliminary rating for the tornado that tracked near Union
Center, Wisconsin on the afternoon of Tuesday, April 14th, 2026 is
an EF3 with estimated peak winds of 140 mph.

More comprehensive survey information will be released later this
afternoon.

$$

APF
 
927
NOUS43 KARX 152015
PNSARX
WIZ043-053-160815-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
315 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

...Preliminary Storm Survey Results for April 14, 2026 Tornado
Near Union Center, Wisconsin...

The preliminary rating for the tornado that tracked near Union
Center, Wisconsin on the afternoon of Tuesday, April 14th, 2026 is
an EF3 with estimated peak winds of 140 mph.

More comprehensive survey information will be released later this
afternoon.

$$

APF
 
The watch is very much warranted today.
Helicity values are above 150, and shear magnitude while low is still productive for tornadoes.
In mesoscale analysis it's the shear that's high and the helicity that's low?

It is really interesting how some of these cells are staying isolated despite their close proximity to others. Why aren't they merging?
 
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