Kds86z
Member
Texting the sister in northern IL..
-
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Severe WX Severe Weather 4/11 - 4/15
- Thread starter Sharpy
- Start date
Texting the sister in northern IL..
Kds86z
Member
Kds86z
Member
US_Highway15
Member
IWX added an updated AFD this morning unexpectedly:
"UPDATE...
Issued at 821 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026
Quick update to the grids to increase pops this morning based on
current radar trends.
The outflow boundary that was responsible for the uptick in
overnight showers/storms has accelerated south, ending the
threat of convection with that feature for the time being. An
area of showers and storms was working through NE IL into NW
Indiana with some new development ahead of it. It still remains
uncertain how far east this will make it before weakening. No
severe threat is expected with this activity, with locally heavy
rain and maybe some gusty winds the main concern. Pops are
highest in the west with a decreasing trend eastward with
everything done by 18Z (if not before). Most likely the
afternoon and early evening hours will be precip free as it will
take time to destabilize once again. The outflow boundary is
likely to modulate back north and could be a focus for some
isolated storms. However, the greatest concerns still exist
later this evening into the overnight hours with some signals
indicating a somewhat increased threat for damaging winds as the
upstream convection races east. Something to sort out in the
afternoon package."
"UPDATE...
Issued at 821 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026
Quick update to the grids to increase pops this morning based on
current radar trends.
The outflow boundary that was responsible for the uptick in
overnight showers/storms has accelerated south, ending the
threat of convection with that feature for the time being. An
area of showers and storms was working through NE IL into NW
Indiana with some new development ahead of it. It still remains
uncertain how far east this will make it before weakening. No
severe threat is expected with this activity, with locally heavy
rain and maybe some gusty winds the main concern. Pops are
highest in the west with a decreasing trend eastward with
everything done by 18Z (if not before). Most likely the
afternoon and early evening hours will be precip free as it will
take time to destabilize once again. The outflow boundary is
likely to modulate back north and could be a focus for some
isolated storms. However, the greatest concerns still exist
later this evening into the overnight hours with some signals
indicating a somewhat increased threat for damaging winds as the
upstream convection races east. Something to sort out in the
afternoon package."
N0mz
Member
I was about to say Indiana is a bit of a sleeper risk today and could warrant a risk expansion. NAM and especially HRRR had a signal at 12z for more significant 700mb flow over like Champaign/Lafayette. HRRR even popped a nice cell.
Kds86z
Member
US_Highway15
Member
Yeah this was taken around Marshall/St Joe counties in Indiana. Not as "eye-catching" as it was last night, but still something that pops out nonetheless. 2/5% hatching was definitely warranted.
Kds86z
Member
Moderate risk at 1630 maybe? Cig 2
Central Ohio Wx
Member
The latest HRRR is genuinely demonic, so I could very easily see an upgrade.
Is overcrowding still a fail mode? I could see that playing out but I don't know.
Central Ohio Wx
Member
12z HRRR has a small pocket of 7.6 STP and a SCP of 9 correlating over a cell near the Kenosha area; if anything forms and moves through that corridor it could be a bad day.
Kds86z
Member
jackhutwx
Member
yeah i gotta text some family in rockford, not looking good for them.
Kds86z
Member
Same, my sister lives 30 min from Rockford.
Oh yeah, you can actually get too many storms. They can be packed in there together and produce, or they can all struggle with the crowding. Really just comes down to the storm scale at that point. However, the fact that the HRRR is showing that convection is a big signal.
Muwx
Member
OK/KS threat looks reasonably low to me. It looks like those storms could grow upscale pretty quickly.
jiharris0220
Member
Waiting for the other cams to come in but it never ends well when there’s this much agreement.
slenker
Member
12z HRRR is a great justification for a tornado-driven MOD imo. That’s a nasty look for southern Wisconsin:
EDIT: Cool, images are still broken.
EDIT: Cool, images are still broken.
lake.effect
Member
^yeah, looking kinda scary today. HRRR is spitting out long track helicity for multiple runs now, over southern wisconsin. That kind of consistency is hard to ignore. I think they go MOD later.
