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Severe WX Severe Weather 4/11 - 4/15
- Thread starter Sharpy
- Start date
Yes thanks, the top right image.
Kds86z
Member
Ef2 damage looks like roof is off but.. ?
Could still potentially be EF2, but the fact that literally nothing around the hotel/apartment building is really affected is a big tell. EF1 for this particular building would not at all surprise me.
Kds86z
Member
Kds86z
Member
Kds86z
Member
3 minor injuries from a house hit. Thankfully no fatalities or serious injuries.
CheeselandSkies
Member
Oh boy, have I got a story...
Unfortunately, photos are still refusing to attach so it will have to wait.
Kds86z
Member
Dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s coupled with steep mid-level lapse
rates (already noted in upstream 00z RAOBs) will support MLCAPE
values near 2500 J/kg by late afternoon. Moderate buoyancy combined
with 45-55 knots of effective bulk shear will be highly favorable
for organized convection. Capping at the base of the EML should
initially limit thunderstorm coverage and favor discrete supercells
along the boundary. In addition to very large hail (possibly up to
2-3 inches in diameter), enhanced low-level SRH along the boundary
may support a corridor of locally higher tornado potential,
including the potential for significant tornadoes. With time,
easterly storm motions along the boundary will promote upscale
growth with an increasing wind threat heading into the late evening
hours.
The primary uncertainty will be the location of the boundary by late
afternoon. 30% hail and 10% tornado probabilities were adjusted to
reflect the most likely placement of the boundary based on a
consensus of guidance; however, exact placement of the boundary will
be conditional on the precise evolution of the morning MCS.
Similarly, how quickly upscale growth occurs after initiation may
modulate the duration of the significant hail/tornado threat.
rates (already noted in upstream 00z RAOBs) will support MLCAPE
values near 2500 J/kg by late afternoon. Moderate buoyancy combined
with 45-55 knots of effective bulk shear will be highly favorable
for organized convection. Capping at the base of the EML should
initially limit thunderstorm coverage and favor discrete supercells
along the boundary. In addition to very large hail (possibly up to
2-3 inches in diameter), enhanced low-level SRH along the boundary
may support a corridor of locally higher tornado potential,
including the potential for significant tornadoes. With time,
easterly storm motions along the boundary will promote upscale
growth with an increasing wind threat heading into the late evening
hours.
The primary uncertainty will be the location of the boundary by late
afternoon. 30% hail and 10% tornado probabilities were adjusted to
reflect the most likely placement of the boundary based on a
consensus of guidance; however, exact placement of the boundary will
be conditional on the precise evolution of the morning MCS.
Similarly, how quickly upscale growth occurs after initiation may
modulate the duration of the significant hail/tornado threat.
Kds86z
Member
CheeselandSkies
Member
HRRR is looking straight-up ominous for southern Wisconsin tomorrow (technically today by now)...and it's my mom's birthday.
US_Highway15
Member
HRRR is still initially firing off isolated supercells. Think MOD risk could be in play with CIG2 probs for tornadoes.
Honestly kind of shocked of the lack of changes, especially with the environment in IN/MI. Legit the most appropriate usage of a 2% CIG1 and its not being used. Will bite my tongue after that.
jiharris0220
Member
3500-4000+ cape along with EBWD being 45+knots, 30-40+knot shear magnitudes and SRH values around 200-500+ is not is good combo.
The failure modes however are the direction shear profiles (the PBL winds are far from perpendicular relative to the mid level shear vector. Although this profile does correct itself, (becomes more veered), around the areas where convection initiates).
Streamwiseness isn’t the best and the inversion layer might actually be a bit too weak so hopefully cells overcrowd themselves.
Kds86z
Member
Ozonelayer
Member
I would go CIG2 for tornadoes next update. Even clusters would have a chance for intense tornadoes and more isolated supercells would not only have increased chances but due to the absurdity of the environment at play, I don't know if I can rule out a violent tornado with isolated supercells.
Kds86z
Member
Anxiously awaiting new day 1
Kds86z
Member
Central Ohio Wx
Member
CIG2 15% might be on the table as well.
Kds86z
Member
US_Highway15
Member
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR IOWA INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through tonight
from the southern Plains into the Midwest. Large to giant hail,
several tornadoes (some strong), and severe gusts will be possible,
particularly from Iowa into the southern Great Lakes.
...Midwest...
An MCV near the IL-IN border this morning and southward-moving
outflow are linked to thunderstorms over parts of the eastern Corn
Belt. This outflow boundary will likely stall with the western
portion of the boundary advancing northward within a strengthening
warm conveyor this afternoon. Guidance generally depicts this
boundary stalling across eastern IA into southern WI by late
afternoon when daytime heating and ascent ahead of the upper wave
will erode inhibition and promote convective initiation along the
boundary. A moist airmass upstream over the lower MO Valley will
advect northeast beneath steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (reference the
12 UTC Topeka, KS raob). MLCAPE at or above 2500 J/kg is forecast
by mid-late afternoon from IA into the IA-WI-IL border vicinity.
Initial storms later this afternoon will rapidly become supercells
with all severe hazards possible. Large to giant hail and an
intense tornado will be possible with the more mature/strongest
supercells where SRH is locally maximized near the boundary.
Upscale growth into a severe cluster is forecast to eventually
evolve during the evening aided by a strong southwesterly LLJ into
the southern Great Lakes. If a supercell develops ahead of the
eastward-moving cluster, a tornado threat could develop as the
boundary layer quickly recovers/destabilizes.
...Kansas into Oklahoma and Texas...
Modest height falls across the central to southern Plains combined
with weak convergence along the dryline will likely support
scattered thunderstorms from eastern KS southward into western north
TX this afternoon into the evening. Aligning with earlier thinking,
strong heating and perhaps weak ascent tied to a subtle mid-level
wave, will favor storm development by 20-22z as convective
inhibition erodes. A very unstable airmass characterized by
2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and elongated hodographs will strongly favor
supercells. The strength of low-level shear remains unclear during
the early evening, when the tornado risk could maximize.
Nonetheless, increased confidence in widely scattered to scattered
supercells yielding a risk for large to giant hail prompted an
increase in hail and hail-intensity highlights this outlook update.
...Northeast...
A low-amplitude disturbance associated with an ongoing MCS near Lake
Ontario this morning will move east into the Northeast during the
day. Cloud breaks and low-level warm/moist advection will
contribute to a destabilizing airmass by midday. Veering and
strengthening winds with height will support storm organization,
including the potential for supercells. Eventually a band of storms
is forecast to evolve by mid-late afternoon with wind damage being
the primary risk. Have introduced low hail/tornado probabilities to
account for hazards associated with supercells.