Severe Weather 3/15 - 3/16

[TornadoFan]

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Damaging wind is becoming more present, and there were jsut significant damaging wind gusts that impacted Diehstadt, MO a minute ago. Crossing into KY, feel like the LLJ mixing and significant damaging wind threat is beginning although I expect it to be more sporadic then a whole full blown line.

 

[Beachwalker]

This storm is moving right towards Paducah, KY.
View attachment 51954

I believe I took Paducah for 100 the other day. Beautiful area but man it gets warned every year it seems

 

[Baxter]

 

[Justin Hindman]

Intercepted the tornado warning near marvel Arkansas, just crossed the river back into Mississippi

 

[TornadoFan]

Strong rotation west of Mound City.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Mound City, KY ramping up.

Those prefrontals have completely collapsed for now.

 

[Clancy]

View attachment 51960

Yeah, I'll take a dusting after a major wind event, why not.

 

[HazardousWx]

Plenty of damaging wind out of all these cells - forcing clearly no issue here. I think within the next several hours, the most likely chance for a more robust tornado threat may end up being over parts of northeastern MS, southern TN and northwestern AL as these semi-discrete storms merge in an increasingly favorable environment to the east of the current QLCS. What's happening now is the exact situation discussed earlier - prefrontal storms that don't mature into tornadic supercells. Not completely out of the question - it only takes one - but think both before and now that the QLCS overnight remains the more serious tornado potential, especially where favorable storm interactions take place.
View attachment 51955

What does the yellow box mean and it looks like the arrow is pointing to lower STP?

 

[RFD66]

Columbus, MS. 00Z

 

[Clancy]

Mound City storm is now Tornado-Warned. A storm that warrants the TOR.

 

[Lake Martin EF4]

The lightning is insane with this line


View attachment 51958

Can confirm, lightning was striking in literally every direction and the meat of the line hasn't even arrived yet.

 

[Clancy]

What does the yellow box mean and it looks like the arrow is pointing to lower STP?

Yellow box denotes an area that may be most conducive to tornadoes in the coming hours. WAA and intensification of the LLJ will make that region favorable to mesocyclones.

Columbus, MS. 00Z


View attachment 51962

Sideways question-mark hodo, a classic.

 

[Clancy]

A Tornado Watch has been issued for parts of the Ohio Valley for tornadoes, but also the prolific damaging wind threat.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 58
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
825 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central and Southern Indiana
Central and Northern Kentucky

* Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 825 PM
until 300 AM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely

SUMMARY...A severe squall line is forecast to rapidly move
east-northeast across the Watch area this evening into tonight.
Damaging gusts will likely be the most prevalent hazard, but a
couple of tornadoes are also possible with embedded mesovortices
within the squall line.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
east and west of a line from 20 miles east northeast of Lafayette IN
to 25 miles southeast of Bowling Green KY. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 52...WW 53...WW 54...WW
55...WW 56...WW 57...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean
storm motion vector 24050.

...Smith

Storm Prediction Center Tornado Watch 58

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

 

[Blountwolf]

Yeah, I'll take a dusting after a major wind event, why not.

It was 82 degrees here today and I was put in a "as much as a dusting" area for tomorrow. I have a very tough time believing that. Brain says... nah...

 

[Clancy]

It was 82 degrees here today and I was put in a "as much as a dusting" area for tomorrow. I have a very tough time believing that. Brain says... nah...

I won't put anything past a Deep South March, but yeah, I find it very hard to believe.

 

[Justin Hindman]

I think the supercells are pretty much done for north Mississippi. The ones to the south are a good bid ways from the ripe ingredients all thought the cape is higher. We shall see if anything can happen outsides the qcls

 

[TornadoFan]

Tornado watch coming for Alabama and Tennessee. Includes Tuscaloosa and Birmingham.

 

[Clancy]

Tornado watch coming for Alabama and Tennessee. Includes Tuscaloosa and Birmingham.

Mesoscale Discussion 0253
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Areas affected...southern Kentucky...Middle Tennessee...northern
Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 160039Z - 160245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging wind and tornado threat to increase through the
late evening. A Tornado Watch will likely be needed by 02z.

DISCUSSION...Moisture is steadily increasing into northern Alabama
and Middle Tennessee this evening as the low-level jet strengthens
ahead of a broken line of severe convection to the west. Mid to
upper 50s dew points now extend to the TN/AL/MS border, with a
narrow axis of 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE nosing into northern
Alabama/Middle Tennessee. This trend in increasing moisture and
destabilization will continue as the upper level trough moves
eastward and storms continue to develop near the cold front and
within the warm sector. The RAP forecast suggests MLCAPE around
500-1000 J/kg will overlap deep layer shear 40-60 kts from Middle
Tennessee into northern Alabama. Though the northern extent of the
instability will be less, the strong background wind environment
will continue to support a mixed mode of clusters and semi-discrete
supercells capable damaging wind and tornadoes. A downstream Tornado
Watch will likely by 02z.

..Thornton/Smith.. 03/16/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON 32878820 33418844 34458814 35088804 35978797 36598765
36668649 36638562 36608506 36558502 35968496 34978561
34128583 33268622 32818690 32878820

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 253

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.

www.spc.noaa.gov

 

[Ledian]

Activity's certainly picking up close to here. Starting to hear the first rumbles of thunder.

Interesting velocity scan near Ripley.