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Severe Weather 3/15 - 3/16

The Nino said:
What’s the thinking for north Alabama? Local waff met (not Brad) seemed to down play it at 5
Click to expand...
I'm thinking I'm going to keep an eye on it. And regardless of severe or twisting - it will be a LOT windier than we are used to.
 
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0251
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN ARKANSAS...WESTERN KENTUCKY...WESTERN
TENNESSEE...NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 55...

VALID 152343Z - 160145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 55 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND, LARGE HAIL, AND TORNADOES
CONTINUES WITHIN AND DOWNSTREAM OF WW53 INTO WW55.

DISCUSSION...A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES CONTINUES EASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN AR AND INTO NORTHERN
LA. WITHIN THE EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS, OCCASIONAL MESOVORTICIES HAVE
BEEN OBSERVED IN RADAR. THIS LINE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO A FAVORABLY
UNSTABLE AND STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN TENNESSEE. A FEW SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS MOVING
NORTH-NORTHEAST. ANY DISCRETE CELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL POSE AN
INCREASED HAIL AND TORNADO RISK.

THE VAD PROFILE FROM KNQA (MEMPHIS, TN) SHOWS STEADILY INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET. RAP
FORECASTS INDICATE THE LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NORTHERN MS INTO TN (AROUND 50 KTS) OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN
INCREASE IN THE TORNADO THREAT AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR CONTINUES TO
INCREASE AS LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ENLARGE.

..THORNTON.. 03/15/2026

..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
Click to expand...

1773618565908.png
 
hurricaneguy said:
I know there are a lot of warnings but so far I’ve not seen any evidence of strong tornadoes yet. So far we seem to be faring well through this. Let’s hope this continues overnight
Click to expand...
I think things are about to take off, especially across the southern end where we have these discrete to semi-discrete cells ahead of the line
 
hurricaneguy said:
I know there are a lot of warnings but so far I’ve not seen any evidence of strong tornadoes yet. So far we seem to be faring well through this. Let’s hope this continues overnight
Click to expand...
Always Sunny Shut Up GIF


LLJ.
 
NCREASED HAIL AND TORNADO RISK.

THE VAD PROFILE FROM KNQA (MEMPHIS, TN) SHOWS STEADILY INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET. RAP
FORECASTS INDICATE THE LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NORTHERN MS INTO TN (AROUND 50 KTS) OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN
INCREASE IN THE TORNADO THREAT AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR CONTINUES TO
INCREASE AS LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ENLARGE.

..THORNTON.. 03/15/2026
 
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