WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Some of these warnings are very precautionary to me imo. All bark, no bite so far but the bite might be soon..
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Severe Weather 3/15 - 3/16
- Thread starter CheeselandSkies
- Start date
According to mesoanalysis the 850mb jet is up to 40kt and increasing.
Ledian
Member
Rohwer supercell still looks mean, and the most likely to drop a strong tornado at this time.
On its current trajectory, it looks like it'll go just to the south of me if it continues. But i'm still gonna be very mindful of it.
On its current trajectory, it looks like it'll go just to the south of me if it continues. But i'm still gonna be very mindful of it.
TornadoFan
Member
I guess that is the LLJ kicking in?
That's a lot of warning boxes
- Thread starter
- #946
CheeselandSkies
Member
Almost seems like there are too many cells. Cap so far has been strong enough to prevent OWS cells from really taking off, but not so strong to prevent a bunch from trying to go up. Nothing can get an uncluttered inflow region. Of course that's what I was thinking on 4/2 last year, and then Lake City happened.
I believe these discrete storms are going to work over the atmosphere ahead of the line in north MS. And they aren't intensifying toward anything significant at this time.
speedbump305
Member
4/2/25 taught me very well that all it takes is one fuse and it’ll blow up.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Seems like that warm nose really lifted off therefore allowing for supercells to establish themselves before the inversion settles in. Late call but this may be another major nocturnal event soon IF cells don't cluster too much
Unnecessarily so, IMO.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Agree l. Even if mature prefrontals went up, and tbh I don't actually believe none of them right now are despite the tor warnings, the environment really isn't that great to begin with. I would be more concerned with a more intense LLJ at the moment but there's plenty of hindrance as I've expected to preclude this activity. You can fire prefrontals but them maturing is the huge difference.
Kds86z
Member
The Colonel
Member
Really getting its act together along I-55 in MS ahead of the line in past 30-45 mins
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
It's funny. Yesterday, prefrontal development was seriously questioned and if we had any.
Go to today and we have overconvected very impressively across half of our WS. I believe this shuts off any opportunities for sneaky prefrontals later on tonight in NW AL. Even latest HRRR runs decrease instability dud to this overconvection so I just do not see a robust sigtor threat developing anytime soon with these. The QLCS is the best option when the shear kicks in
Go to today and we have overconvected very impressively across half of our WS. I believe this shuts off any opportunities for sneaky prefrontals later on tonight in NW AL. Even latest HRRR runs decrease instability dud to this overconvection so I just do not see a robust sigtor threat developing anytime soon with these. The QLCS is the best option when the shear kicks in
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Tough call here but this guy tends to scream "significant tornado in the next 30 mins" with any remotely concerning radar presentation. I'm not saying he could be wrong but just be aware, he tends to overhype his radar analysis plenty when events are ongoing.
TornadoFan
Member
This storm is moving right towards Paducah, KY.
Gotta give credit to the RRFS and HRRR. It was right on the money with the 7pm storms over parts of North MS
Plenty of damaging wind out of all these cells - forcing clearly no issue here. I think within the next several hours, the most likely chance for a more robust tornado threat may end up being over parts of northeastern MS, southern TN and northwestern AL as these semi-discrete storms merge in an increasingly favorable environment to the east of the current QLCS. What's happening now is the exact situation discussed earlier - prefrontal storms that don't mature into tornadic supercells. Not completely out of the question - it only takes one - but think both before and now that the QLCS overnight remains the more serious tornado potential, especially where favorable storm interactions take place.
The lightning is insane with this line
