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Severe Weather 3/15 - 3/16
- Thread starter CheeselandSkies
- Start date
David Miller
Member
I have a feeling we're in for some surprises in the AR/TN Vicinity.
Kds86z
Member
Kds86z
Member
I’m no expert but it’s clear consensus is today has uptrended.
Kds86z
Member
RFD66
Member
12ZNAM...STP "coverage" has certaianly increased and some values an uptick of 1
- Moderator
- #667
Before today's event kicks off, and considering how busy this thread will get with posts pertaining to said threat, if you want to discuss the fires occurring out west, please do it here:
I thought since I couldn’t find a thread on the wildfires ongoing in the critical highlighted area off of the SPC map earlier this afternoon, that I would start a thread for them so they can be talked about better without clogging up other threads.
Muwx
Member
The wild fires are part of today’s threat though.Before today's event kicks off, and considering how busy this thread will get with posts pertaining to said threat, if you want to discuss the fires occurring out west, please do it here:
I thought since I couldn’t find a thread on the wildfires ongoing in the critical highlighted area off of the SPC map earlier this afternoon, that I would start a thread for them so they can be talked about better without clogging up other threads.
I thought THIS was gonna be the break after 3/10…
Until that day 4/5 15% popped up
RFD66
Member
KevinH
Member
Hi.. I am JUST catching up since this morning LOL. Maybe I do not understand the new probabilities/categories yet BUT....
The SPC has a MOD risk for TOR but it is 15% CIG 1 (which is ENH according to their new chart). In order for a MOD risk, you would have to have a 15% BUT a CIG2, not a CIG 1 like they have. What am I missing?
The SPC has a MOD risk for TOR but it is 15% CIG 1 (which is ENH according to their new chart). In order for a MOD risk, you would have to have a 15% BUT a CIG2, not a CIG 1 like they have. What am I missing?
KakashiHatake2000
Member
The moderate risk is for wind
Jason Mills
Member
I believe the moderate is wind driven.
KakashiHatake2000
Member
If it were tornado driven it would be 15 enhanced
KevinH
Member
I'm thinking that is if the Moderate Risk was Tornado driven. That Moderate Risk is damaging wind driven
Kds86z
Member
DESTABILIZATION FARTHER NORTH FROM NC TO THE DE VALLEY APPEARS MORE
UNCERTAIN, WITH POTENTIAL FOR NEAR-COASTAL CONVECTION WITHIN THE
LOW-LEVEL WARM CONVEYOR LIMITING MORE EXPANSIVE/ROBUST
BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING. A PLUME OF WEAK MLCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG
SHOULD STILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO PARTS OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN. ALTHOUGH FLOW FIELDS WILL BE HIGHLY MERIDIONAL, THEY WILL BE
QUITE STRONG WITH AN INTENSE 700-MB JET STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL YIELD ENLARGED
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
WARM-MOIST SECTOR.
EVEN WEAK BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
INTENSIFICATION OF AN EXTENSIVE QLCS FROM WESTERN TO CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF NY/PA SOUTHWARD THROUGH VA/NC TOWARDS MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON. EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED
SOUTH, WHERE BREAKS IN THE QLCS ARE MORE PROBABLE. SOME OF THESE
COULD BE LONG-TRACK WITH SPORADIC STRONG TORNADOES, IN ADDITION TO
THE BACKGROUND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ANTICIPATED WITH THE QLCS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH COOL TRAJECTORIES NEAR
THE COASTAL ATLANTIC AND SHOULD RESULT IN WANING OF SEVERE POTENTIAL
IN THE NORTHEAST NEAR SUNSET.
..GRAMS.. 03/15/2026
UNCERTAIN, WITH POTENTIAL FOR NEAR-COASTAL CONVECTION WITHIN THE
LOW-LEVEL WARM CONVEYOR LIMITING MORE EXPANSIVE/ROBUST
BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING. A PLUME OF WEAK MLCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG
SHOULD STILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO PARTS OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN. ALTHOUGH FLOW FIELDS WILL BE HIGHLY MERIDIONAL, THEY WILL BE
QUITE STRONG WITH AN INTENSE 700-MB JET STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL YIELD ENLARGED
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE PRE-FRONTAL
WARM-MOIST SECTOR.
EVEN WEAK BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
INTENSIFICATION OF AN EXTENSIVE QLCS FROM WESTERN TO CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF NY/PA SOUTHWARD THROUGH VA/NC TOWARDS MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON. EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED
SOUTH, WHERE BREAKS IN THE QLCS ARE MORE PROBABLE. SOME OF THESE
COULD BE LONG-TRACK WITH SPORADIC STRONG TORNADOES, IN ADDITION TO
THE BACKGROUND WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ANTICIPATED WITH THE QLCS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH COOL TRAJECTORIES NEAR
THE COASTAL ATLANTIC AND SHOULD RESULT IN WANING OF SEVERE POTENTIAL
IN THE NORTHEAST NEAR SUNSET.
..GRAMS.. 03/15/2026
Kds86z
Member
tornado examiner
Member
The line is convecting All the way into Arkansas and Oklahoma.
KevinH
Member
"Siggie"... giggity....