• Welcome to TalkWeather!
    We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion.
    CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER

Severe Weather 3/15 - 3/16

I’d like to mention a potential red flag with these recent trends with the hrrr.

The helicity streaks are quite anemic, which is usually a sign that storm updrafts are weak or not tapping into streamwise vorticity. We’ve seen this before where on paper it looks like a slam dunk outbreak but non of the supercells produce much of anything.

Just a tidbit to keep in mind.
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Prepare for the chance of a nocturnal spin up siggie if you live in Alabama. It's gunna be a night of whack a mole
Click to expand...
Cat Holes GIF
 
Kds86z said:
New day 1


THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE
REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AS RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL CAPPING MAY INHIBIT OPEN
WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT. STILL, GREATER INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
PRESENT FROM THE WESTERN KY/TN VICINITY SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN FORM AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS THESE
AREAS AND/OR REMAIN AT LEAST SEMI-DISCRETE WITHIN THE LINE COULD
PRODUCE STRONG (EF-2+) TORNADOES, AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND RELATED
ELONGATED/CURVED HODOGRAPHS WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY-LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY WEAK WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT INTO THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT,
A CONTINUED THREAT FOR NUMEROUS SEVERE/DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE WITH THE QLCS AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE OH/TN
VALLEYS AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. HAVE THEREFORE EXPANDED/COMBINED THE WIND-DRIVEN ENHANCED
RISK AREAS IN SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MS/AL INTO WESTERN GA AND EASTERN TN.
SOME CHANCE FOR PRE-FRONTAL SUPERCELLS AND STRONG TORNADO POTENTIAL
AHEAD OF THE QLCS MAY ALSO EXIST LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST AL, THE FL PANHANDLE, AND SOUTHWEST GA.
Click to expand...
Better late than never SPC lol. I wouldn’t get too caught up in the prefrontal supercell threat over the majority of AL/GA (they may exist/they may not) because I expect the line to feature some semi-discrete supercells in addition to the QLCS spin ups. I’ve seen this movie before.
 
Ugh, hate to see the big ol expansion with confidence strong wind is going to keep trucking east all night. Checks the three boxes I like the least - nocturnal, QLCS, and followed by a freeze with power outages likely. Time to gather flashlights from wherever they got off to after the ice storm close call a couple months ago
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top