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Severe Weather 3/15 - 3/16

The forcing for tomorrow will be very strong since it’s a cold front rather than a dryline, so upscale growth is guaranteed despite the perpendicular orientation of the jet streak relative to the PBL winds, but there’s a potential caveat.

Because there will likely be a slight lack of available moisture and consequently plenty of surface mixing, I can see one of those scenarios where the storm mode starts out as QLCS and transitions to semi discrete.

Keep in mind the March 14th outbreak which happened last year exactly, had dews below 60 and so did the Tri state outbreak. Obviously not saying at all tomorrow will be anything near what those days were. At the very worst I can see one or three significant tornadoes occurring.
 
jiharris0220 said:
The forcing for tomorrow will be very strong since it’s a cold front rather than a dryline, so upscale growth is guaranteed despite the perpendicular orientation of the jet streak relative to the PBL winds, but there’s a potential caveat.

Because there will likely be a slight lack of available moisture and consequently plenty of surface mixing, I can see one of those scenarios where the storm mode starts out as QLCS and transitions to semi discrete.

Keep in mind the March 14th outbreak which happened last year exactly, had dews below 60 and so did the Tri state outbreak. Obviously not saying at all tomorrow will be anything near what those days were. At the very worst I can see one or three significant tornadoes occurring.
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To this point, a few of the mesoscale models display exactly this, with the QLCS cellularizing as it moves over eastern Alabama and into Georgia. Using NAM for visual example but you can see it in it as well as a number of the experimentals.
1773499576466.png
 
bckhd2 said:
FFC punted and copied and pasted yesterday afternoon’s discussion for their 2am update LOL. As always will be interested in their afternoon update since the SPC still has GA right in between the two areas of risk
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I hate that we are between the two risk areas LOL… If the days cut off at 7am, how does that work?

If GA has potential for discrete cells, how are we not included in more of the risk areas?
 
NAM notably shows 700 mb vertical vorticity has a lack of cells ahead of the line. What does this mean? Simple. It may be too warm at 700mb to maintain these cells. And the NAM is picturing that quite well. Still remains fairly conditional but I believe the QLCS will break up around 12z and higher end sigtor potential will exist across SE AL. Very conflicting model guidance with this
 
At this point, I believe a mixture of the RRFS, 3km NAM, and WRF-ARW have a better handle.
 
Can someone pull a hodograph for 37.2 N, 79.1 W and tell me what the hodograph suggests?
 
Kds86z said:


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This is why I've been bringing up April 16, 2011 in the context of Monday's event across the Carolinas. While this setup differs in some key respects, there are some similarities including the potential convective evolution, the kinematic environment (especially in the low levels), and the evolution of the warm sector.

I'm not saying that an event of this magnitude is going to happen, but I think it's something that could be in-play for Monday.
 
ThatGuy;P said:
View attachment 51794
“Several tornadoes forecasted…”
Not some, several.
The wording for that is wild. What are the chances we get an upgrade to MDT for Monday?
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yep.. that is one word of many I pay attention to when they issue forecasts and MD.

QUANTITY: A couple, some, a few, several, many, NUMEROUS...

PROBABILITY: Possible, likely, expected.
 
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