Severe Weather 3/15 - 3/16

[UncleJuJu98]

Worth noting that HRRR at longer range is fairly prone to being off until it gets within that 18 hour time frame or so. Not saying to trust the NAM any more than it obviously, just throwing it out there.

Lol Clancy we both posted the same thing pretty much.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Worth noting that HRRR at longer range is fairly prone to being off until it gets within that 18 hour time frame or so. Not saying to trust the NAM any more than it obviously, just throwing it out there.

Yeah, it only goes to 18z Sunday and convection won't really go until 00z.

HRW FV3 is actually in range now that I think of it. Let me check that out

 

[UncleJuJu98]

This you Sunday night? @JPWX

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Fires a decent line that would have mixed sig damaging wind potential and several brief tornadoes. Intrigued on what CAMs will say about the 3z on period

 

[eep]

Does anyone remember when Pi Day first began to look impressive on models? I vaguely remember that it took until the day before the event to really understand why that day was a huge problem.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[N0mz]

With the caveat that rrfs at 84 is about as good as guessing:

 

[Taylor Campbell]

How accurate is the NAM this far out generally?

Usually terrible. It doesn’t adjust to reality until 24 hrs. It’s the model that will make SPC hype a severe weather risk too far north.

 

[KevinH]

Never doubt JP's foresight or his ability to attract every mesocyclone within 50 miles of his location.

The Mississippian Meso Magnet!!!!

Sorry, I’m logging off

 

[KevinH]

With the caveat that rrfs at 84 is about as good as guessing:
View attachment 51764View attachment 51765

Looks like the O-word I dont think we are supposed to say lol

 

[genie]

Looks like the O-word I dont think we are supposed to say lol

I am doing my best to be a good girl and not say that word... Will wait until the close range models get into their wheelhouse.

 

[KevinH]

I am doing my best to be a good girl and not say that word... Will wait until the close range models get into their wheelhouse.

Right.. because as soon as we use that word, the models will flop. I say we should have a much better idea in about 24 hours. Make sure your weather radio is charged and the email notifications for this thread are ENABLED lol

Also @NWSSPC and @NWSTornado are good accounts to follow on Twitter… especially when notifications are enabled ha ha

 

[genie]

Right.. because as soon as we use that word, the models will flop. I say we should have a much better idea in about 24 hours. Make sure your weather radio is charged and the email notifications for this thread are ENABLED lol

Also @NWSSPC and @NWSTornado are good accounts to follow on Twitter… especially when notifications are enabled ha ha

You kidding? If my health and the models cooperate, I will be out chasing. Highly dependant on my neck and nerve pain. If I'm stuck in the house, I'll be pulling an all-nighter and hanging out here. Zero chance of anything fun sneaking up on me.

 

[KevinH]

You kidding? If my health and the models cooperate, I will be out chasing. Highly dependant on my neck and nerve pain. If I'm stuck in the house, I'll be pulling an all-nighter and hanging out here. Zero chance of anything fun sneaking up on me.

People in the thread comments during a high end event be like:

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Brice W]

That an insane run over any area.

 

[TheSuckZone]

 

[Atlantic]

I don’t like that look at all. Concerning to say the least to me.

 

[UncleJuJu98]

Mannnn. Based off the 00z hrrr it's possible that the rich moist air makes it deep into Alabama before the line gets there, but it'll be close lol.

The hrrr is 3 hours faster than the nam. Which obviously it could slow down but in order for better instability it'll need to slow down a little.

 

[Kds86z]

Mannnn. Based off the 00z hrrr it's possible that the rich moist air makes it deep into Alabama before the line gets there, but it'll be close lol.

Isn’t Alabama out of the greatest risk