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Severe Weather 3/15 - 3/16

Kds86z said:
Lucky how? Time of day doesn’t matter, especially in south.
Click to expand...

I think it would be significantly worse if the threat occurred during peak heating hours, but at the end of the day if the environment is right then the environment is right.

I'm also more concerned about a nocturnal event because you're going to catch a lot of people asleep and not aware.
 
warneagle said:
good call. I think a similar south/west expansion will be needed in the next update for Monday too. there's still gonna be some action going in GA at 12z on Monday.
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I was just about to say. I don't understand what the SPC is seeing (or isn't seeing) with regards to eastern Alabama and west/central GA 12-15z Monday especially given it's going to be either a nocturnal event or coming through at rush hour, neither of which are good. I suppose they're waiting to see how the models evolve the rest of the day and will adjust accordingly with tomorrow's day 3? But I wish they would mention a potential expansion of the threat into those areas because I worry a lot of people may be caught off guard as of now.
 
BMX's afternoon AFD is more strongly worded.

" - There is a medium to high chance for severe weather Sunday
night into Monday morning. There`s increasing concern for
widespread damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and large hail."

" This is a very dynamic system and latest model trends
have increased instability ahead of the front, leading to more
concerns for severe weather across all of Central AL."

"2. Latest trends in model guidance have strong low level and deep
layer shear, increasing concerns for the tornado threat depending on
how the line evolves and what kind of storm interactions we get.
"
 
Kds86z said:
New day 3…

..SUMMARY

A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT WITH SOME TORNADO THREAT IS LIKELY
ON LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS
TO SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. THE GREATEST WIND THREAT APPEARS TO BE
FROM NORTHEAST ARKANSAS/WESTERN TENNESSEE TO SOUTHERN INDIANA DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..SYNOPSIS

A 100+ KNOT MID-LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO RAPID AMPLIFICATION AS IT
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY, STRONG LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN WEAK TO POTENTIALLY
MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND FROM OHIO TO
WESTERN GEORGIA/EASTERN ALABAMA BY MONDAY MORNING.

...OHIO VALLEY

DESPITE DEWPOINTS ONLY INCREASING TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S, A VERY
FAVORABLE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH A 70 KNOT
LOW-LEVEL JET AND NEARLY 125 KNOT MID-LEVEL JET BY MONDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THIS WIND FIELD, ANY INSTABILITY, COMBINED WITH THE STRONG
FRONTAL FORCING, WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A POWERFUL QLCS DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY HAVE
WIDESPREAD 60+ MPH WIND GUSTS WITH SOME STRONGER 75+ MPH WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION, VERY LONG HODOGRAPHS WITH 200+ M2/S2 0-500M SRH WILL
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LINE-EMBEDDED TORNADOES, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
STRONG. ADDITIONALLY, THE STRONG SHEAR MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS, ALSO DEPICTED BY THE 12Z RRFS, WHICH ALSO MAY
LEAD TO A LOCALLY GREATER TORNADO THREAT. PRE-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM NORTHEAST ARKANSAS TO SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AT THE NOSE OF THE 500MB JET AND THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS SCENARIO IS MORE UNCERTAIN, BUT
COULD POSE A GREATER TORNADO THREAT IF IT WERE TO MATERIALIZE.

..LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHEAST

THE SQUALL LINE WILL FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON, PERHAPS WITH SOME
INITIAL SUPERCELL/HAIL THREAT ACROSS ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
AND THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE
STRONGEST LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THIS REGION,
HOWEVER, GREATER INSTABILITY WILL COMPENSATE AND SHOULD MAINTAIN THE
DAMAGING SQUALL LINE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE GREATEST STP
VALUES WITHIN THE ENTIRE RISK AREA ARE FORECAST (BY THE 12Z NAM)
BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z FROM WESTERN TENNESSEE TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
AND NORTHWEST ALABAMA. THEREFORE, EXPECT A QLCS TORNADO THREAT TO
ACCOMPANY THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING PERIOD.

..FL/AL COAST

TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD, RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA. WITHIN
THIS ZONE, DISCRETE CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP AFTER 08Z. IF THIS WERE
TO OCCUR, STRONG SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
TORNADOES.

..BENTLEY.. 03/13/2026

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Also, I love Bentley. Him and Thompson my favs as well as broyles sometimes.
 
Jason Mills said:
BMX's afternoon AFD is more strongly worded.

" - There is a medium to high chance for severe weather Sunday
night into Monday morning. There`s increasing concern for
widespread damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and large hail."

" This is a very dynamic system and latest model trends
have increased instability ahead of the front, leading to more
concerns for severe weather across all of Central AL."

"2. Latest trends in model guidance have strong low level and deep
layer shear, increasing concerns for the tornado threat depending on
how the line evolves and what kind of storm interactions we get.
"
Click to expand...

Looks like according to BMX in regards to higher tornado potential it'll come down how broken the line is and of course if we get prefrontals or open warm sector storms.
 
These are the areas I feel most concerned about Sunday into early Monday. Wouldn't be surprised to see some prefrontal and robust QLCS tornado threat across the middle Mississippi Valley, TN Valley and lower Ohio Valley during the day and evening, and then the additional threat overnight from eastern Mississippi, across Alabama and into Georgia. Those seem to be the hotspots. How serious the threat is on the northern end will depend on moisture advection, so I find it possible, perhaps probable that the highest threat is relegated to the southern extent of the SPC's 45% contour.
1773431369637.png
 
I
Clancy said:
These are the areas I feel most concerned about Sunday into early Monday. Wouldn't be surprised to see some prefrontal and robust QLCS tornado threat across the middle Mississippi Valley, TN Valley and lower Ohio Valley during the day and evening, and then the additional threat overnight from eastern Mississippi, across Alabama and into Georgia. Those seem to be the hotspots. How serious the threat is on the northern end will depend on moisture advection, so I find it possible, perhaps probable that the highest threat is relegated to the southern extent of the SPC's 45% contour.
View attachment 51748
Click to expand...
I think the 30% hatched will probably shift more southeast to cover more of Alabama in the next update.
 
THIS: SPC

" The greatest STP values within the entire risk area are forecast (by the 12Z NAM)
between 03Z and 12Z from western Tennessee to central Mississippi
and northwest Alabama. Therefore, expect a QLCS tornado threat to
accompany the damaging wind threat through the overnight and early
morning period.
 
Clancy said:
These are the areas I feel most concerned about Sunday into early Monday. Wouldn't be surprised to see some prefrontal and robust QLCS tornado threat across the middle Mississippi Valley, TN Valley and lower Ohio Valley during the day and evening, and then the additional threat overnight from eastern Mississippi, across Alabama and into Georgia. Those seem to be the hotspots. How serious the threat is on the northern end will depend on moisture advection, so I find it possible, perhaps probable that the highest threat is relegated to the southern extent of the SPC's 45% contour.
View attachment 51748
Click to expand...
Good chance that 45 percent has decent chance go moderate risk next update then come
Soitj some too
 
Genuine question what is it about Georgia that makes storms collapse as soon as they cross the state line? I assume it's because we don't have direct access to the moisture advecting from the Gulf, but it happens so consistently and in all seasons that it makes me wonder if there's something more at play. I have no interest in tornadoes to be sure, but occasionally it would be nice to get something more exciting than another 2:45am severe warning that immediately dissolves into a Special Weather Statement as soon as it crosses I-285 outside the Metro.
 
@Brice W We are in the 30% area now as of the special D4 outlook update.

IMG_6094.jpeg
 
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