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Severe Weather 3/15 - 3/16

ColdFront said:
Couldn’t have said this part better myself. After 3/15 last year, I went through many archived and observed soundings from notorious events. That’s the thing that jumped out at me. You had a moist layer in every event, but it’s not saturated halfway up through the atmosphere. You almost want to have a fish-fin look for your moisture profile, like in this sounding from BMX the evening of 4/27/11.

Dry air and a stout EML is absolutely vital for large scale tornado outbreaks. Like you said, it has to be a balance though. Too much dry air and updrafts struggle, too little and you end up with a warm sector filled with weedy showers.

View attachment 51664


For good measure, here is Nashville’s observed sounding from the morning of 4/3/74.

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This is exactly what large scale outbreaks feed on. This doesn't necessarily limit a violent tornado threat in high end setups BUT it limits the overall higher end "several supercells producing violent tornadoes" aspect that could've took place on 3/15. Due to the more saturated environment, only a few supercells managed to touch into this environment. Like you said, you don't want your PBL too dry NOR too moist, but you want that little dry slot to VENT out precip that's been built up over the while.



Now some setups can defeat this aspect. I feel like if you have a very saturated PBL, you need a SHARP dry slot. That can basically equal both aspects and even with rapid precip built up, this dry slot filters away. This is why 4/27/11 is as high end as you can get. The day featured intense dynamics, subtle forcing to allow for supercells. Not just that but promoted extreme longevity of supercells in the warm sector combined with a slightly moist enough PBL that would have a dry slot instantly vent any junk precip out combined with the little warm nose that WOULD AID in preventing further pop-up cells. So much has to come together for such a outbreak.
 
jiharris0220 said:
Still plenty of time to uptrend even more thermodynamically, but already looks worrisome to say the least. (Sounding taken in eastern TN)
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I find NAM sometimes overdoes timing so I would not be surprised if this event started much earlier towards 00z-03z. Regardless, worrisome for significant QLCS tornadoes.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
I find NAM sometimes overdoes timing so I would not be surprised if this event started much earlier towards 00z-03z. Regardless, worrisome for significant QLCS tornadoes.
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Worse news further east in Alabama and Georgia if it ends up that way.
 
Clancy said:
Worse news further east in Alabama and Georgia if it ends up that way.
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Sheer vectors on euro spells trouble …. All storm
Modes this far out on table . Way to early to pinpoint what’s going be main threat , but I see some super cells out ahead of perhaps semi derecheo to setup…one thing I am seeing for sure , going be some
Wide spread damage wind reports
 
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