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Severe Weather 2026

A lack of strong large scale ascent really not nosing in until 00z with this setup. The dynamics get very intense after 00z, so i feel like this is a event to still watch. Moisture return is being underestimated absolutely, it doesn't make sense for such a intense system to pull just 50s out of this.

Monday in the Carolinas WILL be a day to watch. GFS has been here and there regarding a svr threat and I'm beginning to feel intrigued into it now. Strong low level shear and instability. Large scale ascent looking decent.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
A lack of strong large scale ascent really not nosing in until 00z with this setup. The dynamics get very intense after 00z, so i feel like this is a event to still watch. Moisture return is being underestimated absolutely, it doesn't make sense for such a intense system to pull just 50s out of this.

Monday in the Carolinas WILL be a day to watch. GFS has been here and there regarding a svr threat and I'm beginning to feel intrigued into it now. Strong low level shear and instability. Large scale ascent looking decent.
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Sounds like SPC is going introduce a 15 percent area of day 4 ……
 
Pretty significant southward adjustments still occurring in recent model cycles for Sunday-Monday's system.

trend-icon-2026031206-f084.500wh.conus.giftrend-gfs-2026031206-f087.500wh.conus.gif

Correspondingly, moisture return has improved, most notably across parts of the AR-LA-TX region. GFS used as an example below has seen increase in instability across the SW of the warm sector, close to the front.

trend-gfs-2026031206-f087.mucape.conus.gif

If the GFS 06z were to be taken literally, I expect you would see a significant severe weather outbreak with classic supercells developing from TX into AR/LA with large hail and a tornado risk, eventually developing into a notable squall line. What's particularly interesting me is the way the trough digs almost SE so that the 500mb flow just ahead of the vorticity maximum is almost perpendicular to the boundary. This can be quite a classic way to get an outbreak, when taking a very simplified synoptic scale view.

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However what we've seen is rapidly evolving model output, clearly trying to catch up to some particular evolution. It is uncertain how much longer this goes on for, and if we see continued uptrends in moisture quality, but certainly the SPC is justified in its D4 probs, and I think this could be perhaps be one of those events that sort of comes out of nowhere yet may be fairly significant. Definitely worth keeping an eye on, at the very least.

The next day across the Mid-Atlantic also is beginning to look pretty interesting. Instability upgrades coinciding with strong low level shear has produced some impressive looking soundings in NC/VA in recent runs. Some of theses soundings remind me of some early season long tracked tornado events.

1773322713050.png

So all in all, a lot to watch for over the next few days. Hopefully moisture stays on the lower side and we can avoid the worst of it. Though however bad as it may be, I think we should all be very grateful this isn't occurring either in ~1 months time, or after days and days of consistent moisture return... Where that to be the case this is the kind of trough which can get quite easily toward High-Risk event threshold.

Might be worth making a separate thread soon, if there isnt one already.
 
I think a thread for the weekend is probably in order. SPC has already outlined two days. No shortage of notable contours on our favorite modelling solutions. Leitman on the mid-range disco already mentioning expansion to the D4 further east and north pending details. Very clean troughing still visible on ensembles and operationals. Most concerned on the core of the Deep South and Gulf Coast, unless there is a significant uptrend in instability and moisture into the OH Valley. Still many details to iron out, but in the broader sense, this has a more significant severe potential in our neck of the woods. Note the long-track tornado probabilities off the CIPS.

Edit: @UK_EF4 basically made all my points for me! Cheers.
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0315 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Sunday - ArkLaTex/Lower MS Valley into the Middle MS/Lower
OH Valleys...

An intense upper trough will deepen over the Plains and shift east
to the MS Valley on Sunday. From late afternoon into the nighttime
hours, an 80-100 kt jet streak will develop within the base of the
trough and overspread portions of the region. At the surface, an
already strong cyclone will deepen further as it moves from the
Lower MO Valley to the Lower Great Lakes vicinity. As this occurs, a
strong cold front will sweep eastward across the southern Plains and
much of the Midwest and Southern U.S., becoming oriented from Ohio
to the FL Panhandle by Monday morning.

While strengthening southerly low-level flow will develop ahead of
the front, stronger Gulf moisture return will be confined to TX and
the Lower MS Valley vicinity, with mainly 50s dewpoints expected
with northward extent across the Middle MS and OH Valley regions.
Furthermore, capping is expected ahead of the cold front,
potentially limiting warm sector convection. Nevertheless, modest
moisture and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support at least
weak destabilization very near the cold front. A narrow line of
strongly-forced convection is expected to develop along the cold
front and move across portions of OK/TX into the Middle/Lower MS and
Lower OH/TN Valley regions. Given intense deep-layer flow near and
just behind the cold front, strong/damaging wind potential will
exist within a modest instability/high shear environment. A 15
percent severe delineation has been included from the ArkLaTex into
the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley vicinity. Depending on low-level
moisture/instability trends, this area may need to be expanded north
and east into a larger portion of the Middle MS/Lower OH/TN Valley
vicinity in subsequent outlooks.

...Day 5/Monday - Southeast to Mid-Atlantic...

Severe thunderstorm potential will likely continue into Monday as
the intense upper trough continues to migrate east from the MS
Valley toward the Eastern Seaboard. Intense deep-layer southwesterly
flow will overspread portions of the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic.
Meanwhile, 60s F dewpoints will extend from southeast GA northward
through the Mid-Atlantic ahead of a sharp cold front. Pre-frontal
surface troughing across the VA/NC Piedmont also will support
backing low-level winds, leading to enhanced low-level shear.
Depending on how much cloud cover and warm advection precipitation
occurs ahead of the cold front, stronger destabilization may be
inhibited. Nevertheless, at least weak instability is forecast ahead
of a strongly forced line of convection along the eastward-advancing
cold front. This activity alone could produce a swath of strong to
severe wind gusts. A more conditional risk of supercells across the
warm sector exists across eastern VA/NC, but this is more uncertain.
Given damaging wind potential with the strongly forced linear
convection, a 15 percent severe delineation has been added for
portions of the region.

...Days 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday...

Severe thunderstorm potential will be low Tuesday through Thursday
as strong surface high pressure builds in the wake of the earlier
cold frontal passage. A dry/stable airmass will prevail as Gulf
moisture remains well offshore.

..Leitman.. 03/12/2026
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Synoptically, everything is there. 40 to 50 knots of bulk shear and backing coming out of the S to SE. Trough is negatively tilted too. 7 C/km to 8 C/km mid level lapse rates are being shown on the GFS so they shouldnt be a problem. Really the only issue is (supposedly) moisture return, but I don't doubt it will uptrwnd a bit more as the trough trends south. I personally think that we might have a very significant event if this system plays its cards right aswell as the models increasing moisture return.
 
tennessee storm chaser said:
What’s wild bout this event. Places get hit hard with severe wx could be looking at accumulated snow next day . Wild
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we might get that today. our rain is supposed to change over to snow this afternoon. thankfully it's too warm for anything to stick given that it just took two 80+ days to finally melt the last of the snowcrete from the storm in January.

edit: lol just after I posted this one of my friends up in baltimore messaged the group chat and said it was snowing there. they were under a tornado warning about...16 hours ago.
 
Clancy said:
I think a thread for the weekend is probably in order. SPC has already outlined two days. No shortage of notable contours on our favorite modelling solutions. Leitman on the mid-range disco already mentioning expansion to the D4 further east and north pending details. Very clean troughing still visible on ensembles and operationals. Most concerned on the core of the Deep South and Gulf Coast, unless there is a significant uptrend in instability and moisture into the OH Valley. Still many details to iron out, but in the broader sense, this has a more significant severe potential in our neck of the woods. Note the long-track tornado probabilities off the CIPS.

Edit: @UK_EF4 basically made all my points for me! Cheers.
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Done.

CheeselandSkies

Thread 'Severe Weather 3/15 - 3/16'

Plenty of chatter already about this one already in the seasonal thread and SPC has Day 4/5 contours outlined, so event thread time. Discuss the coming Sunday-Monday system here.
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I experienced 60-70 mph wind gusts this morning during a strong line that came through. I had been expecting this since a few days as I noted the very intense LLJ that could mix down to the surface with this line. It did. The radar presentation was really impressive to see for me even over here. Haven't had a good cool season squall like this in a while

I'm not able to send images for a odd reason still :(
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
I experienced 60-70 mph wind gusts this morning during a strong line that came through. I had been expecting this since a few days as I noted the very intense LLJ that could mix down to the surface with this line. It did. The radar presentation was really impressive to see for me even over here. Haven't had a good cool season squall like this in a while

I'm not able to send images for a odd reason still :(
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Oh wow and oh no , I hope you can get images attached .
 
Had a surprisingly bad unforecasted wind event about 30 minutes ago; power lines were dangling over a road and traffic lights across at least the northeastern suburbs were out. Surprisingly no trees fell in my yard (apparently a large tree almost fell on a house down the street) but I’ll survey when I get back home.
 
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Central Ohio Wx said:
Had a surprisingly bad unforecasted wind event about 30 minutes ago; power lines were dangling over a road and traffic lights across at least the northeastern suburbs were out. Surprisingly no trees fell in my yard (apparently a large tree almost fell on a house down the street) but I’ll survey when I get back home.
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Tree damage in the northeastern suburbs and siding damage downtown.
 
Central Ohio Wx said:
View attachment 51760
View attachment 51761
Tree damage in the northeastern suburbs and siding damage downtown.
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Genuinely odd how I had 60-70 mph wind gusts with the squall line yesterday over here and yet didn't receive any of this type of damage. Not that I'm saying i want to, but it's weird how areas in the US can easily take damage from 60 mph wind gusts whereas the most you tend to see here is several branches across the road, sometimes large.

RTMA certainly confirms your area is taking the brunt of things gust wis
 
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