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Severe Weather 2026
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
akt1985
Member
Sunday 3/15 might have to be monitored for Severe Storms over the Tennessee Valley.
Yeah @akt1985. I pulled up my 10 day forecast on TWC and said yep. That has severe weather written all over it.
Kds86z
Member
Quite a temp drop
slenker
Member
It’s a good thing that the trough being modeled on Sunday won’t have much moisture to work with. Looks like a beast of a system on the 6z Euro. I’m sure there will still be severe weather somewhere but it’s 100% going to be lessened in severity and areal extent because of that.
One very small thing to think about...
ECM mainly (and to an extent the other globals) have been trending south with the major trough on Sunday, digging it further into the plains.
Wind profiles with this kind of system are always impressive - but all models had (and still have) severe moisture problems. However, the ECM has ever so slightly up trended the amount of instability in the warm sector in accordance with the southerly ecm trends.
Now its pretty much just the ECM that has this. By far the most likely scenario, and the scenario supported by almost all models is for CAPE to be <100j/kg in the warm sector, with probably the only convection being a synoptically forced squall line. However I thought it was an interesting trend.
And besides, it is exciting anyway to see such a synoptically impressive trough on the models - severe risk or not!
ECM mainly (and to an extent the other globals) have been trending south with the major trough on Sunday, digging it further into the plains.
Wind profiles with this kind of system are always impressive - but all models had (and still have) severe moisture problems. However, the ECM has ever so slightly up trended the amount of instability in the warm sector in accordance with the southerly ecm trends.
Now its pretty much just the ECM that has this. By far the most likely scenario, and the scenario supported by almost all models is for CAPE to be <100j/kg in the warm sector, with probably the only convection being a synoptically forced squall line. However I thought it was an interesting trend.
And besides, it is exciting anyway to see such a synoptically impressive trough on the models - severe risk or not!
Very little doubt that we are gonna have a significant severe weather risk next week. Especially with places across the Deep South seeing a greater than 25 degree temperature difference like going from roughly 80 degrees down to 45 the next day.
CheeselandSkies
Member
I hadn't really looked at this coming Sunday's system until now, given my preoccupation with targeting for yesterday's setup (fat lot of good that did me). A quick and dirty glance reveals, in my opinion, while not quite as rich for early-mid March standards as the last few, this system should have enough moisture for some problems given a much more synoptically classic structure at the surface and aloft compared to yesterday and last Thursday-Friday's.
Issue I see on the north end is, just like yesterday, a quite sharp warm front across northern Illinois. Anything trying to tap into the enhanced low-level shear along it is going to ride a very fine line of getting undercut by cold air or not.
Issue I see on the north end is, just like yesterday, a quite sharp warm front across northern Illinois. Anything trying to tap into the enhanced low-level shear along it is going to ride a very fine line of getting undercut by cold air or not.
akt1985
Member
Surprisingly, I think there have been severe thunderstorms over parts of Hawaii today.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Sunday is looking interesting. Intense dynamics fill in to the mid Mississippi valley. A system to watch closely.
While it comes with all the typical caveats, the system that @CheeselandSkies and @WeathermanLeprechaun have mentioned definitely has my eye. GEFS shows a pretty impressive and consistent trough Sunday afternoon. EPS is, notably, quite similar, trending sharper and more to the south and west. If this pattern holds, my only real question mark becomes moisture and instability, which is modelled as paltry, but is likely underdone. Obviously, there will be a lot of more minute things to talk about is this gets closer, but looking at it from a zoomed-out perspective, I'd definitely watch this one. Thankfully after this it looks to quiet down some for much of the country.
jiharris0220
Member
Here shows a good example of operational models initializing too dry.
The hrrr has dew points in Dixie alley largely in the mid 50s on Friday while the Euro shows at the same time dews in the mid 40s, 10 degrees drier. Gfs shows the same degree of dryness.
A reminder that operational models usually underestimate the magnitude of moisture advecting during winter and early spring.
The hrrr has dew points in Dixie alley largely in the mid 50s on Friday while the Euro shows at the same time dews in the mid 40s, 10 degrees drier. Gfs shows the same degree of dryness.
A reminder that operational models usually underestimate the magnitude of moisture advecting during winter and early spring.
Grand Poo Bah
Member
*looks at trough* Oh, so that's why it's supposed to be 9 degrees in Iowa on Monday. Then we're back to record setting high temps next Friday.
Ozonelayer
Member
Very interesting trough sunday. Can't quite make out the details yet but I really think the models are not doing a great job resolving moisture and dewpoints. A monster trough that digs that deep with a negative tilt like that pulling up only 40s dewpoints and 50s temperatures seems very unrealistic to me.
slenker
Member
I do think the moisture return will be more substantial than what is being modeled for sure, but I find it highly unlikely it uptrends strongly enough to generate a significant severe event. I hope, at least. In terms of general shape, it's got quite the look to it...
Grand Poo Bah
Member
It's potentially our first negatively tilted trough in several months isn't it? 979 MB too. And those heigh falls.
CheeselandSkies
Member
Looks like quite the winter storm for us on the back side anyway, eh? Lots of snow for you and freezing rain for me...oh joy.
Grand Poo Bah
Member
18z Euro is quite interesting. Look at the way it just slurps up moisture in front of the dryline. GEFS is up trending slightly as well.
Grand Poo Bah
Member
Where tf did this come from!? SHEESH. The better the false Spring, the worse the return of winter I guess...
CheeselandSkies
Member
Interestingly, the GFS has some of the stronger instability Sunday over the OH Valley, northern KY into Indiana.
Any ideas what in the model is cratering the dewpoints further south? On the 18Z run they start out in the upper 50s to low 60s across MS/AL at 15Z Sunday, but at 21Z have dropped to the low 50s despite what ought to be strong advection off the Gulf with that deep low up there.
Any ideas what in the model is cratering the dewpoints further south? On the 18Z run they start out in the upper 50s to low 60s across MS/AL at 15Z Sunday, but at 21Z have dropped to the low 50s despite what ought to be strong advection off the Gulf with that deep low up there.