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Severe Weather 3/9 - 3/12

View attachment 51384
Anyone forecast two inch hail in 40 degree weather?
Putting aside that first wave fizzling out, these have been some wicked supercell depictions on reflectivity. Something so neat and aesthetically pleasing about a clean radar of discrete supercells without a huge line of junk in its proximity or hogging the radar mosaic.
 
All of the kinematics for the Illinois storms are there. They're just all in the cold front, and have zero SB cape to work with. Even the Iowa cells look like they're going to cross over. The only real prospect in the OWS is the blip by Havana. This was always the fail mode. It's killing the front half of the main supercell threat. Gonna be interesting to see what happens in the second half.
 
All of the kinematics for the Illinois storms are there. They're just all in the cold front, and have zero SB cape to work with. Even the Iowa cells look like they're going to cross over. The only real prospect in the OWS is the blip by Havana. This was always the fail mode. It's killing the front half of the main supercell threat. Gonna be interesting to see what happens in the second half.
I think the southern cells in the Iowa mess are probably more capable of a tor threat. I believe they are in a less hostile environment but it'll be a while before they approach a better one.

Also, if Kansas and Oklahoma get online, this may legit be a huge outbreak.
 
Texas has no failure modes, does it? I'm hoping something happens that inhibits storms when they come later tonight.
I also pray that anyone in the way of today's storms are paying attention and going to shelter when warnings happen.
Looks like a nasty evening
 
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