Kds86z
Member
And possible upgrade ..
-
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Severe Weather 3/9 - 3/12
- Thread starter CheeselandSkies
- Start date
Grand Poo Bah
Member
Just marking your problematic tweets for you since you've been wondering lol. Don't need reposted data with 2 word influencer reactions.Your face looks very red @Grand Poo Bah everything good?Not sure why angry emojis to posts of mine.
Central Ohio Wx
Member
The metro is barely inside of it (as usual); if it was to be upgraded to a 10% then Columbus wouldn't be included. A 10% in West Virginia would certainly be... interesting, to say the least.
Kds86z
Member
Huh? I’m not hardly posting that many. Nothing wrong with posting forecasts and couple model runs. I’m not over doing it. Chillax. And Greg McLaughlin is a notable well known veteran chaser/tracker so showing moisture in Oklahoma is valid post from him as that is a potential area later on. @Grand Poo Bah
kcyalater
Member
stop arguing or i’ll mentally ban the lot of you!
Central Ohio Wx
Member
Sometimes it's fun to argue. Wouldn't be a true weather forum without that...
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
As much as I like well detailed posts, spamming angry emojis on his posts isn't the best way to criticise. Bring it to DMs if further because this happens every thread almost with something nearly derailing it. After all, it is TalkWeather...
Central Ohio Wx
Member
The SPC mentioning that "all severe hazards are likely, including the risk for multiple strong to intense tornadoes" was not on my early-March bingo card. Could definitely be a bad night.
Cyclonic Paracosm
Member
tbf they did upgrae today to a tornado driven mdt, 15% cig2
US_Highway15
Member
Get this non-argumentative comment out of my forum (sarcasm).
TornadoFan
Member
Wouldn't be the internet period without arguing.
Grand Poo Bah
Member
You asked! Just trying to help.
Reactions don't clog up threads. A lot of good that strategy did lmao...
- Moderator
- #494
Alright, both of you. We're on the cusp of a possible major event, so cool it. If you don't like what someone posts, ignore them and move on. Complaining about it also takes up space in the thread.
hurricaneguy
Member
Threat is definitely increasing for later today. Not what we want to see. Btw, side note, always glad to see a fellow Pokemon fan on the forum based on your icon.
Should be about 3-4 hours before we start seeing MDs I would think.
Kds86z
Member
I am following Brandon Copic live. He said 4pm.
TornadoFan
Member
Certainly an interesting day for severe potential. Tomorrow certainly trended down as the cut-off low somewhat lagged back to earlier forecasts - but definitely compensated by the environment this afternoon/evening across IL/IN that has become fairly volatile for tornadoes.
Seems as if storms will initiate just along and to the NE of the nose of the instability axis, probably in Western IL or SE IA around ~22z. While upper level support is somewhat removed, a prominent 700mb jet will begin to nose in during a similar timeframe, which probably reflects some sort of disturbance in the mid-levels which might add a 'kick' of synoptic support for initiation.
As such it seems there will be no shortage of storms along the frontal zone, with a very strong signal from HREF for clusters of supercells in the risk areas by 00z.
The biggest uncertainty as we are all aware is how many of these storms will be on the warm side of the front so that they become surface based and take advantage of the high STP environment (~3-5, more than supportive of intense tornadoes). Most CAMS do now support at least one-two dominant supercells on that side of the boundary. I wouldn't be surprised if it really is just one storm that manages to stay discrete and surface based - but its entirely possible that even a singular cell could take advantage of the environment and produce EF3+ tornado(es).
Also worth noting that while STP is very helpful in distinguishing how favourable an environment is for tornadoes, today is the type of day where storm scale features the models can't really anticipate become very important as a potential 'extender' of the ceiling of tornado intensity. Vorticity will be very plentiful near the frontal zone and where any outflow/lake breeze boundaries develop. Additionally, these hypothetical baroclinic vorticity zones would be orientated E-W in line with the front (largely). This is interesting as storm motions will be nearly due E for RM supercells - making ingesting and utilising this hypothetical vorticity quite efficient. You just have to look at last week to see how an intense tornado can be produced in a somewhat benign environment when enhanced by a frontal boundary.
There are still however multiple fail modes - certainly one where all storms quickly get undercut and turn elevated (I think at least one storm will remain surface based, especially as the strengthening LLJ will reinforce the position of the boundary and attempt to transfer moisture north).
The other would be concerns about outflow dominance and upscale growth. Some soundings from near CI do have fairly large dew point depressions and hodographs are smaller due to being earlier in the day - so don't be surprised especially with large CAPE values if storms are large, HP, monster supercells but perhaps shorter lived tornado potential. Especially as the initiating direction and storm motions are parallel, you can can also see how upscale growth occurs earlier than expected (it will inevitably at some point) and transitions to more of an MCS feature. One caveat to this is that profiles appear very well ventilated - which in my opinion will result in pretty classic supercells, and this is true from the get go.
So overall a lot to look at from the tornado side of things - and that's just in the northern risk zone. Tornadoes possible all the way down to the US/Mexico border so potentially multiple reports over a large area type of day. Also, an outbreak of hailers seems pretty much a given too. Hopefully everyone stays safe and weather aware, regardless of what happens!
Seems as if storms will initiate just along and to the NE of the nose of the instability axis, probably in Western IL or SE IA around ~22z. While upper level support is somewhat removed, a prominent 700mb jet will begin to nose in during a similar timeframe, which probably reflects some sort of disturbance in the mid-levels which might add a 'kick' of synoptic support for initiation.
As such it seems there will be no shortage of storms along the frontal zone, with a very strong signal from HREF for clusters of supercells in the risk areas by 00z.
The biggest uncertainty as we are all aware is how many of these storms will be on the warm side of the front so that they become surface based and take advantage of the high STP environment (~3-5, more than supportive of intense tornadoes). Most CAMS do now support at least one-two dominant supercells on that side of the boundary. I wouldn't be surprised if it really is just one storm that manages to stay discrete and surface based - but its entirely possible that even a singular cell could take advantage of the environment and produce EF3+ tornado(es).
Also worth noting that while STP is very helpful in distinguishing how favourable an environment is for tornadoes, today is the type of day where storm scale features the models can't really anticipate become very important as a potential 'extender' of the ceiling of tornado intensity. Vorticity will be very plentiful near the frontal zone and where any outflow/lake breeze boundaries develop. Additionally, these hypothetical baroclinic vorticity zones would be orientated E-W in line with the front (largely). This is interesting as storm motions will be nearly due E for RM supercells - making ingesting and utilising this hypothetical vorticity quite efficient. You just have to look at last week to see how an intense tornado can be produced in a somewhat benign environment when enhanced by a frontal boundary.
There are still however multiple fail modes - certainly one where all storms quickly get undercut and turn elevated (I think at least one storm will remain surface based, especially as the strengthening LLJ will reinforce the position of the boundary and attempt to transfer moisture north).
The other would be concerns about outflow dominance and upscale growth. Some soundings from near CI do have fairly large dew point depressions and hodographs are smaller due to being earlier in the day - so don't be surprised especially with large CAPE values if storms are large, HP, monster supercells but perhaps shorter lived tornado potential. Especially as the initiating direction and storm motions are parallel, you can can also see how upscale growth occurs earlier than expected (it will inevitably at some point) and transitions to more of an MCS feature. One caveat to this is that profiles appear very well ventilated - which in my opinion will result in pretty classic supercells, and this is true from the get go.
So overall a lot to look at from the tornado side of things - and that's just in the northern risk zone. Tornadoes possible all the way down to the US/Mexico border so potentially multiple reports over a large area type of day. Also, an outbreak of hailers seems pretty much a given too. Hopefully everyone stays safe and weather aware, regardless of what happens!
Kds86z
Member
We definitely need to watch this today.