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Severe Weather 3/9 - 3/12

Looks like another possible bi modal type..

0233 PM CDT SUN MAR 08 2026

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA...AND PARTS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

..SUMMARY

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ON TUESDAY FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES VICINITY. ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE.

..SYNOPSIS

A ROBUST LOW-LATITUDE MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MX AND THE SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME, A BROAD NORTHERN-STREAM MIDLEVEL TROUGH
WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY AS IT ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. IN THE LOW-LEVELS, A
QUASI-STATIONARY WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES VICINITY FROM A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDDLE MS
VALLEY. FARTHER SOUTH, A SEPARATE SURFACE LOW WILL EVOLVE OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, WHILE A DRYLINE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD BEFORE BEING
OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT. ALONG AND EAST OF THESE FEATURES, A
BROAD/EXPANSIVE WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY MIDDLE/UPPER 60S
DEWPOINTS WILL ENCOMPASS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE
MS VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE THIS LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF ALL HAZARDS ACROSS A BROAD AREA, THE SPLIT-FLOW NATURE OF THE
PATTERN LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS.

..MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES

ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY WARM FRONT, A LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS,
RESULTING IN LARGE CLOCKWISE-CURVED HODOGRAPHS. GIVEN AMPLE
MOISTURE/BUOYANCY, SUPERCELL CLUSTERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN,
WITH AN ACCOMPANYING RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS, A FEW TORNADOES (SOME
POSSIBLY STRONG) AND SEVERE HAIL. GIVEN A SUBSTANTIAL WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR, ANY ESTABLISHED STORMS THAT
EVOLVE OVER THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY REGION MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A
TORNADO RISK INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS CURRENTLY
LOW.

..SOUTHERN PLAINS

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG/EAST OF THE DRYLINE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHERE AMPLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND SURFACE-BASED
BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT A MIX OF ORGANIZED CLUSTERS AND SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS. EVENTUALLY, LINEAR FORCING ALONG THE FRONT
SHOULD PROMOTE UPSCALE GROWTH, WHEN THE SEVERE-WIND AND TORNADO RISK
MAY INCREASE INTO CENTRAL TX. A SEPARATE CORRIDOR OF SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN OK, WHERE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IS EVIDENT.

..WEINMAN.. 03/08/2026

@CheeselandSkies
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Each successive NAM run ups the ante for Tuesday in northern Illinois. However, a new wrinkle is the southeastward RM storm motion vector. That's more like a summer setup!

View attachment 51175

View attachment 51177
Click to expand...
NE IL at 00z is fully cranked kinematics wise. You should check that time out, impressive environment honestly. Definitely honing in on a significant all hazards threat for MO/IL but things may still change.
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
NE IL at 00z is fully cranked kinematics wise. You should check that time out, impressive environment honestly. Definitely honing in on a significant all hazards threat for MO/IL but things may still change.
Click to expand...

Even the 12KM/"regular" NAM resolves discrete convection feasting on a strongly unstable and sheared environment, potentially threatening the southern parts of the Chicago metro.

Screenshot 2026-03-08 145216.png
 
KakashiHatake2000 said:
Anybody see that movie cloudy with a chance of meatballs reminded me of that scene with the tornado being spaghetti anyways the meatballs being the hail and spaghetti being the possible tornado
Click to expand...

I haven't seen the movie (came out long after my childhood), but I read the book. Naturally the "tomato tornado" and accompanying illustration was my favorite part.

20210325_104055.webp
 
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