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Severe Weather 3/4 - 3/8

Moisture convergence is trending upward in the risk area due to advecting moisture. The only concern I can see at the moment is the lapse rates in the lower levels, likely due to cloud cover and EML. The ballpark range is 6 degrees Celsius or higher to guarantee that parcels can easily reach the LFC with strong upward acceleration.
 
Kind of an interesting evolution to the tornado contours on the second Day 2 outlook. The 10% was pushed considerably farther to the south/southeast (previously it had encompassed the KC metro/much of eastern Kansas), but the 5%+CIG1 was expanded considerably further northeast, to include southern Wisconsin. The Nadocast shared by James Bryant/@Kds86z doesn't seem that enthused about this area.
 
Plenty of both MLCAPE and SBCAPE for these storms to work with

1772749989766.png1772750010047.png

Here's your surface based lifted index. Remember, anything below -6 is considered very unstable, and -9 is extremely unstable

1772750135595.png

Low Level Lapse Rates are pretty low where the storms are starting to initiate, but at the mid-levels they're very high.

1772750308615.png1772750398525.png

There's still a decent cap in place

1772750547107.png
 
Asked Broyles what his thoughts synoptically were with this setup

"Kevin,

I just read the forecast discussion. Here is my read on the shift in the forecast area for Friday. The mid-level jet in this case is coming in parallel to the flow. There is not much advection of the stronger flow toward the warm sector, which means large-scale ascent is forecast to be limited over much of the Enhanced. The main convective initiation mechanism appears to be from lift associated with the low-level jet, which is setting up further east. The new models are showing a bi-modal setup in the convective distribution. Not sure if it will play out that way. There is spatial uncertainty on this one."

Very much my thoughts. Large scale ascent is limited and leaves a conditional window for anything to really go tomorrow and get surface based.
 
Brice W said:
The tornadoes might not be strong, but something else will be…
Click to expand...
yucks eww GIF
 
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