Severe Weather 3/4 - 3/8

[Sharpy]

We’ve got 4 days highlighted for severe weather coming up beginning Wednesday. Regardless of the intensity the storms turn out to be with each day, so many consecutive days in a row of a threat seems to warrant starting a thread. Possible severe weather could occur after 3/7, so this thread includes those dates.

Source: https://www.weather.gov/lsx/svrcomp

 

[KevinH]

Hmmmmm

The threats according to these threats seem to be in the same area. Is anyone saying the "O" word yet?

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Hmmmmm

The threats according to these threats seem to be in the same area. Is anyone saying the "O" word yet?

Not anyone who knows what they're talking about. Model trends have generally been away from the higher-end solutions. Friday still holds some interest, but there hasn't been nearly enough consistency to be confident, same goes for any timeframe beyond that.

 

[KevinH]

Not anyone who knows what they're talking about. Model trends have generally been away from the higher-end solutions. Friday still holds some interest, but there hasn't been nearly enough consistency to be confident, same goes for any timeframe beyond that.

I just read the SPC outlooks and they aren't even sure about D7/8. I have always hesitated to include dates that are not highlighted by the SPC in a thread title. Doing so in the past has caused me to have to update the title of the thread LOL!!!!!

In any case, we all know March and April is a time to watch carefully. SHOCKER ha

 

[CheeselandSkies]

To go along with the above...

NAM (and more recent GFS runs) basically gave a giant middle finger to the idea that I would have a chase opportunity after work on Wednesday, after the GFS was consistent with the potential for several runs in a row. Friday is looking less promising on the north end, as well.

Gonna be a long spring for me if the models keep teasing and then rug-pulling like this. After sitting out days like Winterset and 2/8/24, I finally decided to be more in tune with early season setups regardless of date/latitude and they just...stopped happening.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

If anybody wants to make their own svr discussions and personal outlooks, this website released just yesterday!

Graphical Forecast Creator

Create and verify professional severe weather outlooks with multi-day cycle management, drawing tools, storm report verification, and forecast discussion export.

gfc.weatherboysuper.com

I plan to do a little discussion and personal outlook but I won't share the outlook due to potential for confusion on the official SPC outlooks. I will share my discussion when I'm done though.

 

[Central Ohio Wx]

If anybody wants to make their own svr discussions and personal outlooks, this website released just yesterday!

Graphical Forecast Creator

Create and verify professional severe weather outlooks with multi-day cycle management, drawing tools, storm report verification, and forecast discussion export.

gfc.weatherboysuper.com

I plan to do a little discussion and personal outlook but I won't share the outlook due to potential for confusion on the official SPC outlooks. I will share my discussion when I'm done though.

I've been waiting for so long for a website like this to release! Glad finally someone made one. Armchair Forecaster is too clunky.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

I've been waiting for so long for a website like this to release! Glad finally someone made one. Armchair Forecaster is too clunky.

Yeah, Armchair Forecaster was too laggy. This one includes CIG too!!!! I plan to have my own twist with this website and i plan to make my svr outlooks similar to AOIs in hurricane season. Gonna be experimenting for a bit here!

 

[Kds86z]

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

This day has been peaking my interest for these "strong shear, nocturnal CIN" events but the shear doesn't seem PARTICULARLY robust to promote any stable layer ripping thru.

 

[VultureDirge89]

Friday in particular is worth keeping an eye on. While I wouldn't use the O word yet there's definitely potential for a strong tornado or two imo.

 

[Kds86z]

Newest day 3 takes out the Tornado threat mentioned by broyles.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[slenker]

I like how the Euro has gone from a beast of a trough ejection to a complete slop ejection in the 3/10 timeframe. Model wars are going ham right now.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

I like how the Euro has gone from a beast of a trough ejection to a complete slop ejection in the 3/10 timeframe. Model wars are going ham right now.

Hypecasters on X are unfortunately in dire need....

 

[JPWX]

Forecast models aside. The pattern and temperatures say to expect severe weather going forward.

 

[Clancy]

Hypecasters on X are unfortunately in dire need....

The same people on social media who hype up one GFS run at 300+ hours are the same ones who start spamming trash can emojis 2 days later, so they definitely aren't helping themselves in that department!

 

[ColdFront]

Hypecasters on X are unfortunately in dire need....

All jokes aside, this has been the most boring, ahem quiet, stretch of severe weather I can recall. Just nil since late June. A couple of weeks ago in Indiana is the only notable event in that time frame it seems.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

The same people on social media who hype up one GFS run at 300+ hours are the same ones who start spamming trash can emojis 2 days later, so they definitely aren't helping themselves in that department!

That's another COMMON trait of them.



"oh my!"

*shows a 384 hr trough*

"closed low it's over ️️️"

"i never believed I this setup since it came around"

"I like to be conservative when it comes to forecasting"

"I don't do any of that hyping with GFS runs"

"i am NOT a day 1 plains weenie"