Severe Weather 2026

[CheeselandSkies]

Ever since almost hour 384, the GFS has been very consistent with a system coming through the Midwest on or about Friday, March 6th (now at FH246 as of today's 18Z run and it still has it). It did this with last Thursday's system and while it was generally too far northwest (favoring IA/northern IL vs southeastern IL into Indiana) until within a few days, the placement and timing was impressively spot-on from long range, especially considering the bad rap that model often gets among the weather community. The fact that its ensembles as well as the ECMWF ensembles are on board with the general pattern lends credence to the idea.

 

[MichelleH]

By the middle of next week (Days 7 and 8), the frontal boundary
should weaken across Texas and redevelop northward. This will allow
low-level moisture to begin advancing northward into the Central
Plains. However the speed and strength of this low-level moisture
advection varies greatly between different ensembles and even within
the membership of specific ensembles. As such, the overall potential
for organized severe weather on any day looks to be too low for
unconditional probabilities. However, pattern recognition suggests
thunderstorm (and severe) potential should increase across portions
of the central US just beyond this forecast period.

 

[Ozonelayer]

12z GFS has a heck of an expansive plains event in the 10th-12th, with a solid environment near the OK/TX border and Wichita Falls

 

[Ozonelayer]

View attachment 50807
12z GFS has a heck of an expansive plains event in the 10th-12th, with a solid environment near the OK/TX border and Wichita Falls

Another thing I'd say is to keep an eye on the deep south area. Whist timing and location hasn't been completely nailed down, the past few runs (atleast to yesterday's 18z) have shown a solid severe weather setup not too long after the first event. The GFS Ensembles aren't in complete agreement but are atleast indicative of a severe event in the deep south area during the 7th-12th range.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

View attachment 50807
12z GFS has a heck of an expansive plains event in the 10th-12th, with a solid environment near the OK/TX border and Wichita Falls

Verbatim that would be a potential outbreak sequence from the 6th through the 12th, although initially the trough is a bit too amplified N-S yet "squished" E-W, but over time it broadens out with several negatively-tilted shortwaves ejecting through it.

 

[slenker]

12z GFS has a heck of an expansive plains event in the 10th-12th, with a solid environment near the OK/TX border and Wichita Falls:

Nasty analogs there. 5/1/1954 and 4/10/1979 featured 2 F4's each, with the '79 outbreak containing the Wichita Falls tornado. We have to wait and see since it's still the operationals, but the EPS and GEFS have a very intense signal for deep troughing in the West in this time frame. Here's the EPS on the 8th:

Severe weather somewhere is essentially a guarantee with this look around this general time frame.

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

With the mjo going on
To stormy phases… matter time we start see a significant severe wx event pop up on the models in the Dixie and mid south regions also

 

[akt1985]

With the possibility of major severe weather during the first half of March, the Alabama Weather Network might finally get use during a real high-end event.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

I forgot February is only 28 days, which means March 5th (the start of this potential outbreak sequence) is only 8 days away. Not exactly out in fantasy land. The severe signal has been consistent for several days now. This seems like it might be the real deal.

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

With the possibility of major severe weather during the first half of March, the Alabama Weather Network might finally get use during a real high-end event.

hmm interesting, speaking of stuff like that the freelightning placefile for watches got fixed so it works now, its the only 1 to show watch probs so I kinda wanna see what the pds watches look like bc iirc they have a diff look idk tho

 

[CheeselandSkies]

If possible, 18Z GFS is even more insane (although it stays annoyingly far west and wouldn't provide me any good chase days where I wouldn't have to marathon out after work, chase, and marathon back and work the next day on no sleep). Ridiculously broad (W-E), screaming southerly 850mb LLJ on the evening of Sunday the 8th.

Still a long ways out and details will change, but it's a good bet *something* will happen in the central and/or southern U.S. in the March 6th-11th timeframe.

 

[lurker]

Could be our first tornado event featuring the new hatched probabilities (which are supposed to take effect on March 3rd)

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Brice W]

I’d say this checks out quite nicely.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[slenker]

Man, if that warm sector verifies, or even comes close to that, that’s certainly one way to kick off March. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a warm sector that large for something this early in the season.

 

[Central Ohio Wx]

Man, if that warm sector verifies, or even comes close to that, that’s certainly one way to kick off March. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a warm sector that large for something this early in the season.

Would that make any potential outbreak more potent?

 

[slenker]

Would that make any potential outbreak more potent?

Oh, most definitely. Normally the big March events, especially those earlier in March, have question marks about moisture. And you don't even really need much of it to still have a big event verify - this applies to late autumn events too. Look at 3/2/2012 or 11/17/2013. The moisture really wasn't super impressive on those days but it was adequate when paired with incredible wind profiles, and even after the long tracking supercells left the most favorable environment, they were mature enough to sustain themselves and continue producing big tornadoes. West Liberty, KY from the 3/2/2012 outbreak is a prime example.

If you increase the moisture, I feel like that's only bad news. Hopefully this upcoming pattern doesn't have anything too substantial interacting with that.

 

[Central Ohio Wx]

West Liberty, KY from the 3/2/2012 outbreak is a prime example.

Kentucky has been hit way too hard this decade; really hoping that whatever inevitably happens stays out of their way.

What are some of the analogs? Sorry for so many questions, I'm just not good at reading advanced forecast maps/skew-Ts and such.