2/19/26- 2/20/26 - severe threat discussion

[Tennie]

The cell near Alton, IN, is trying to get its act together. It's got a pretty mean-looking hook, but the rotation is still rather broad and struggling to tighten up.

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

Another interesting concept is the Bulk Richardson Number which is basically the balance of wind shear and CAPE.

BRN < 10 Probably too much shear for thunderstorms
BRN > 10 < 45 Supercells possible
BRN > 45 Storms more likely to be multicells rather than supercells



I guess the 10% hatched is starting to make a lot better sense.

 

[Tennie]

And here’s the analysis for that sounding:



Notably, it’s showing fairly low CAPE but also fairly high low-level helicity. The CIN is also notably high (0 MLCAPE vs. -418 MLCIN is a problem…). The SCP is only 1.5 and the STP is only 0.2, so the storms in the environment at the time of the sounding were struggling, likely due to the warm mid-level air. Of course, I would like to see them do another launch to see if anything’s changed since this one.

 

[slenker]

Already a severe thunderstorm headed right at me. Didn't expect to get any storm activity until later tonight, so this is quite the surprise.

EDIT: Looks like they extended the tornado watch to include me too...

EDIT 2: Also looks to be some broad rotation on the storm. I've definitely got my eye on it.

 

[Tennie]

There's a line of cells that's beginning to form between Mount Vernon and Nokomis, IL. This might be the second round of activity for today.

 

[Central Ohio Wx]

I’d watch that cell near Ballard, KY, seems to have broad rotation and a well-defined hook unless I’m missing something.

 

[ColdFront]

Already a severe thunderstorm headed right at me. Didn't expect to get any storm activity until later tonight, so this is quite the surprise.

EDIT: Looks like they extended the tornado watch to include me too...

EDIT 2: Also looks to be some broad rotation on it. I've definitely got my eye on it.

Those are some interesting looking storms all over Central KY right now. Some kind of prefrontal trough/subtle shortwave/surface features got those to go early. 500 ML cape and uncapped environment in KY will do that.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Interesting view from the Louisville TDWR:

 

[Ozonelayer]

Cells popped up near Albion, IL:

 

[Tennie]

Lexington, KY, is now under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Funnel near Mason, IL via Corey Gerken's feed. Storms may be sustaining.

 

[Tennie]

Likely funnel cloud forming near Edgewood, IL. Corey Gerkin has a drone view on it.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Yeah, that one is looking healthy. May be one of few storms today to overcome the failure modes.

 

[TheSuckZone]

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

KVWX says even those small "sloppy" cells are spinning. Seems like we may be overcoming these issues and the sigtor threat will begin..

 

[TornadoFan]

Nice view.

 

[Tennie]

The cell near Edgewood, IL, is now under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning.

 

[TornadoFan]

The cell near Edgewood, IL, is now under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning.

Surprised they didn't even put a "tornado possible" tag on it.

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

They're still struggling to maintain funnels. Maybe we're halfway there but they're struggling getting them down and that definitely means the thermodynamics are hitting them.

This could change soon.

 

[TornadoFan]

Surprised they didn't even put a "tornado possible" tag on it.

Tornado warning issued.