Kds86z
Member
I agree about chasers overhyping. Sometimes they do get lucky and they go “see!” but it was pure luck lol when something very conditional came to fruition.
-
Welcome to TalkWeather! We see you lurking around TalkWeather! Take the extra step and join us today to view attachments, see less ads and maybe even join the discussion. CLICK TO JOIN TALKWEATHER
2/19/26- 2/20/26 - severe threat discussion
- Thread starter WeathermanLeprechaun
- Start date
Kds86z
Member
Let’s hope TW stays afloat today…
CheeselandSkies
Member
Yeah. Several hours of getting Cloudflare error pages yesterday evening.
Central Ohio Wx
Member
Opening the bookmark and being met with "Error 1003" is the ultimate mildly annoying thing; let's indeed hope that doesn't happen at all. It is Cloudflare, though, so what can you expect.
warneagle
Member
Trey has a forecast discussion up:
- Thread starter
- #86
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Yeah, he did say plenty of files in the ointment today
Cameron Nixon did mention dry mid level air may make attempts at CI anemic too on Twitter
- Thread starter
- #87
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
We have rapidly destabilised to 1k SBCAPE. Sharp warm nose and warming aloft will prevent a early start though. Curious if instability could just go over what's forecasted a bit and that would change things. We will see.
We're gonna know in 15 minutes or so
We're gonna know in 15 minutes or so
Last edited:
- Thread starter
- #88
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Kds86z
Member
Central Ohio Wx
Member
Pretty sure the 2% was pushed further down into TN and further east into the Mansfield, OH area, but I can't see many other changes. As usual, we are literally just outside of any significant risk level, including the 15% for both wind and hail. How unlucky can a weather enthusiast get?? I need to bring my "Columbus anti-bad-weather bubble" signature back.
Kds86z
Member
- Thread starter
- #92
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
There was three forecasters involved in this outlook. I don't remember seeing that before.
Central Ohio Wx
Member
Slightly off-topic, but I love how the updated categorical and hail outlooks are making a pretty well-defined heart, not too long after Valentine's day. Kinda cute. Illinois is also the literal heart of the US highway system if I remember correctly.
- Thread starter
- #94
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
latest mesoanalysis has 1.5k SBCAPE reaching into SW IN! Instability is over performing, it seems but limiting factors do remain strong! Still remains conditional.
Ozonelayer
Member
Rather impressive SBCAPE Values for mid-late February. Storms might not have as much trouble initiating and maturing but still will take some effort!
This also might help in the development of a few stronger tornadoes, if they sustain that is.
Kds86z
Member
Yeah I keep forgetting it’s February. Didn’t think first hatched of 2026 for tornadoes would be up there. Maybe Mississippi or something lol.
Rather impressive SBCAPE Values for mid-late February. Storms might not have as much trouble initiating and maturing but still will take some effort!
This also might help in the development of a few stronger tornadoes, if they sustain that is.
- Thread starter
- #97
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Yeah, it's still gonna take effort. I don't think we will destabilise any further then this now though.
Rather impressive SBCAPE Values for mid-late February. Storms might not have as much trouble initiating and maturing but still will take some effort!
This also might help in the development of a few stronger tornadoes, if they sustain that is.
It's interesting that strong tornadoes are possible when the cells are maxing out at 25k feet. That certainly is one very nasty Updraft helicity swath on the HRRR though.
- Thread starter
- #100
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
That's probably due to how anemic those updrafts are and it's showing those updrafts struggling. Also, those tracks may very well be hailers.