February 14-15th severe WX

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Line orientation just not favorable for tornadoes. Bonkers shear soon in the FL Panhandle, 400 SRH. If any prefrontal attempt can beat that warm nose, we could have issues. 1k SBCAPE should be in reach soon. Instability too low atm to initiate anything ahead. Have a feeling if we get good line orientation, even the QLCS may pop off like last night in Central LA

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

Two circulations developing in the QLCS atm. Tornado threat is beginning.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Cell near Sneads/Chattahoochee has been warned for a bit. Definitely a persistent little couplet, although somewhat broad and I don't see a TDS at the moment.

 

[Kds86z]

Any damage reports from the tornadoes in Mississippi?

Monticello has some damage. Mobile home destroyed for one

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

A COUPLE
SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE QLCS, WHICH COULD POSE SOME THREAT OF ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS (INCLUDING HAIL), THOUGH THIS SCENARIO IS MORE UNCERTAIN.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[akt1985]

It looks like the QLCS slowed down once it got east of Tallahassee.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

A COUPLE
SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE QLCS, WHICH COULD POSE SOME THREAT OF ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS (INCLUDING HAIL), THOUGH THIS SCENARIO IS MORE UNCERTAIN.

This is what I've been hinting at. Sigtor threat is conditional but if we get sustained mature prefrontals, could be a interesting few hours m.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[akt1985]

With the line not moving as fast as this morning, the Daytona 500 might get to finish their race this afternoon. Then again, I would not want to be in an RV at the racetrack when the line moves through.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[slenker]

What’s this about a storm chaser making a fuss over the NWS issuing warnings? Is the “Brad” Nick is referring to Brad Arnold or someone else?

Very weird thing to be upset about, especially when considering the fact that the storms last night did generate damaging tornadoes.

 

[Kds86z]

What’s this about a storm chaser making a fuss over the NWS issuing warnings? Is the “Brad” Nick is referring to Brad Arnold or someone else?

Very weird thing to be upset about, especially when considering the fact that the storms last night did generate damaging tornadoes.

It’s Brad Arnold.

 

[Kds86z]

6 tornadoes confirmed so far, will only go up. The 1 EF1 in MS was on ground 8 miles.

 

[Clancy]

What’s this about a storm chaser making a fuss over the NWS issuing warnings? Is the “Brad” Nick is referring to Brad Arnold or someone else?

Very weird thing to be upset about, especially when considering the fact that the storms last night did generate damaging tornadoes.

He's been dying on the hill that "the only way to make positive change in forecasting is having civilized discussion about False Alarm Ratios" and then immediately going "you stinky I'm right" in his replies. That's a yikes from me. I don't even disagree that we should think about how to manage FAR on Tornado Warnings, but his egotistical replies aren't helping his case. Meanwhile we've had multiple tornadoes overnight, including a possible SIGTOR.

 

[Clancy]

He's been dying on the hill that "the only way to make positive change in forecasting is having civilized discussion about False Alarm Ratios" and then immediately going "you stinky I'm right" in his replies. That's a yikes from me. I don't even disagree that we should think about how to manage FAR on Tornado Warnings, but his egotistical replies aren't helping his case. Meanwhile we've had multiple tornadoes overnight, including a possible SIGTOR.

Speaking of, very strong couplet NW of Lake Butler, north-central Florida. Not confident it's getting that low to the ground, but it's also a pretty classic mini-supercell, and it has plenty of kinematics to work with.