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February 14-15th severe WX
- Thread starter UncleJuJu98
- Start date
Kds86z
Member
Kds86z
Member
Kds86z
Member
joshoctober16
Member
oh my god can it stop already , night time qlcs are annoying , they form way to fast and people are sleeping....
Kds86z
Member
Kds86z
Member
Kds86z
Member
Kds86z
Member
Kds86z
Member
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
I observed destructive winds, a likely tornadic power flash in Lake Charles, a lowering and just QLCS madness. We still got it to go today so we'll see.
akt1985
Member
This afternoon is the Daytona 500 while Daytona Beach is at the southern edge of the severe risk this afternoon. Hopefully the race gets in before the rain and storms arrive.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
Tor threat will pick up when line intensifies again towards 15z. Dependant on line orientation.
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
These models are making me seem crazy but here we go again....
HRRR has somewhat rapidly uptrended instability in SW GA today and well, it has prefrontal development. I noted a strong warm nose yesterday. So it seems that the HRRR is beginning to lean into the more robust situation that I've been hinting at, lost confidence in and now suddenly, there seems to be something going for this scenario after all that switching up for models. It really has been a tennis match watching today unfold on models.
Why would this run uptrend suddenly? It might be due to the line being ahead of schedule last night. Models had this line only moving thru in 3 hours time here but suddenly it's here by 12z. That leaves time for airmass recovery and a rapid buildup of enough instability. Without that warm nose, you're looking at 1.5k SBCAPE easily but this will be enough to balance. I have questions about MATURE prefrontals developing but if these develop in that sharp axis of >300 0-1km SRH then once again, I've noted we're easily talking a significant tornado threat with a scenario like this. I haven't taken these scenarios for granted and noted things can change but riding with the models will lead to this thought process. I'm skeptical of mature prefrontals. I find a QLCS with tornado potential is likely but the bigger question is can a mature prefrontal or two sustain and tap into that environment. The ceiling is a significant tornado threat with them. Will it happen? It's not guaranteed but it's not out of the cards. Today will need to be watched closely...
Speaking of, our line is gaining intensity atm. By the end of the day, we could be talking a prefrontal event or just a average run of the mill QLCS event but a conditional significant tornado threat DOES exist today in SW GA/N FL so just watch out!
HRRR has somewhat rapidly uptrended instability in SW GA today and well, it has prefrontal development. I noted a strong warm nose yesterday. So it seems that the HRRR is beginning to lean into the more robust situation that I've been hinting at, lost confidence in and now suddenly, there seems to be something going for this scenario after all that switching up for models. It really has been a tennis match watching today unfold on models.
Why would this run uptrend suddenly? It might be due to the line being ahead of schedule last night. Models had this line only moving thru in 3 hours time here but suddenly it's here by 12z. That leaves time for airmass recovery and a rapid buildup of enough instability. Without that warm nose, you're looking at 1.5k SBCAPE easily but this will be enough to balance. I have questions about MATURE prefrontals developing but if these develop in that sharp axis of >300 0-1km SRH then once again, I've noted we're easily talking a significant tornado threat with a scenario like this. I haven't taken these scenarios for granted and noted things can change but riding with the models will lead to this thought process. I'm skeptical of mature prefrontals. I find a QLCS with tornado potential is likely but the bigger question is can a mature prefrontal or two sustain and tap into that environment. The ceiling is a significant tornado threat with them. Will it happen? It's not guaranteed but it's not out of the cards. Today will need to be watched closely...
Speaking of, our line is gaining intensity atm. By the end of the day, we could be talking a prefrontal event or just a average run of the mill QLCS event but a conditional significant tornado threat DOES exist today in SW GA/N FL so just watch out!
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Any damage reports from the tornadoes in Mississippi?
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
no, I'm suggesting those ccs were probably filled to death with leaves or etc. Not exactly the strongest couplets
WeathermanLeprechaun
Member
it's worth noting as well that these cells had no lightning, and were practically mini sups so the ccs might seem more intense then per usual. Not surprised that it went off in MS because it's nighttime in February with a LLJ so
akt1985
Member
A Tornado Watch is now in effect for most of the Tallahassee county warning area.
Kds86z
Member
Seen some reports from La, roof off a home etc.
Jason Mills
Member
Beautiful spiral on radar this morning.
