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Severe Weather 2026
- Thread starter KevinH
- Start date
N0mz
Member
12z Euro AIFS, which has been my favorite model this winter for upper-level guidance, looks too zonal and never gets negatively tilted enough to do anything. Caveat that I have no idea how the euro aifs performs for svwx.
Jason Mills
Member
Glancing at the 12z GFS for this weekend (across AL), here are some observations I have.
1.) The main shortwave is very south, a good deal farther south than the 06z run. With forcing that far south, I suspect you will get a coastal precip shield. If you get a coastal precip shield - that will shunt northward transport of moisture.
2.) The timing isn't the most conductive for a robust severe threat, coming through the state in the overnight hours.
3.) The prominent warm nose at 700mb is keeping mid-level lapse rates pretty anemic.
That being said, I can definitely see a damaging wind threat and an isolated spin up tornado or two. Hopefully we can get the spread amongst guidance to come down some.
1.) The main shortwave is very south, a good deal farther south than the 06z run. With forcing that far south, I suspect you will get a coastal precip shield. If you get a coastal precip shield - that will shunt northward transport of moisture.
2.) The timing isn't the most conductive for a robust severe threat, coming through the state in the overnight hours.
3.) The prominent warm nose at 700mb is keeping mid-level lapse rates pretty anemic.
That being said, I can definitely see a damaging wind threat and an isolated spin up tornado or two. Hopefully we can get the spread amongst guidance to come down some.
Jason Mills
Member
Meanwhile look at the 978mb bomb the 12z GFS drops on the Great Lakes in fantasy land:
akt1985
Member
I might be delivering flowers for a florist on Valentine’s Day. I hope the storms hold off until after the holiday festivities are over.
Welp. Both the GFS and euro have nasty weather. 18z GFS is a decent look, too early for magnitude I think, but I'll probably pull the trigger tonight. When I get some time. Both the 12z euro and 18z GFS have similar low placements. Maybe not the most favorable for our area but I think will see some sort of severe weather.
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N0mz
Member
18z AIFS GEFS and GFS all look kinda zonal. At this point not a very high ceiling event. Still lotta time though.
Made the thread guys
Thread 'February 14-15th severe WX' https://talkweather.com/threads/february-14-15th-severe-wx.2481/
Thread 'February 14-15th severe WX' https://talkweather.com/threads/february-14-15th-severe-wx.2481/
Kds86z
Member
Oh my
Grand Poo Bah
Member
Pretty late to this, but here's a real good resource for everything ocean related. Current TNI is +0.42
Ocean Analysis | Tropical Tidbits
Analysis tools for tracking and forecasting tropical weather
www.tropicaltidbits.com
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Thank you so much!Pretty late to this, but here's a real good resource for everything ocean related. Current TNI is +0.42
Ocean Analysis | Tropical Tidbits
Analysis tools for tracking and forecasting tropical weather
N0mz
Member
00z Euro AIFS looks a little better, but still nothing super robust. It's February after all.
CheeselandSkies
Member
GFS still teasing a potentially potent-looking setup (pending thermodynamics improving somewhat from currently depicted saturated columns and poor lapse rates) abnormally far north for Thursday the 19th as of the 0Z run.
CheeselandSkies
Member
Made another edit with my chase footage and the music video for Van Halen's "Humans Being" from the Twister soundtrack ahead of the 30th anniversary of the song and film's release.
warneagle
Member
I'm always deeply conflicted by how much nostalgia I have for that song and how not-good the song itself actually is. I'll stick to "Child in Time" for Twister nostalgia.
CheeselandSkies
Member
I also like that one and "Long Way Down."
CheeselandSkies
Member
Kind of sad that three of the people featured in that video (Bill Paxton, Phillip Seymour Hoffman, and Eddie Van Halen) are dead now.
Kds86z
Member
slenker
Member
With the inevitable systems that will be potentially impacting what looks to be a wide variety of areas in this 500 mb pattern, I feel like I see the operational Euro tending to be more conservative with the appearance of systems, while the others (in particular, op GFS) tend to overestimate how robust they look this far out. It seems like that's the opposite right now - the 12z operational Euro has some big troughs swinging through over a week out, with some very robust looking systems, while the GFS seems like it isn't overly impressed.
Of course, they are the operationals. The ensemble Euro is much more favorable looking geometrically than the GFS ensemble is too, at least in my non-expert opinion. Since the Euro tends to be slightly better than many of the other models, I have more faith in there being severe weather across the US than I normally would be this far out, potentially a lot of it, and maybe even with a significant severe event mixed in. When the troughs become better defined by all models, we'll see what the consensus becomes.
Of course, they are the operationals. The ensemble Euro is much more favorable looking geometrically than the GFS ensemble is too, at least in my non-expert opinion. Since the Euro tends to be slightly better than many of the other models, I have more faith in there being severe weather across the US than I normally would be this far out, potentially a lot of it, and maybe even with a significant severe event mixed in. When the troughs become better defined by all models, we'll see what the consensus becomes.
I feel better about there being a more legit/robust severe weather threat around or just after the 20th of the month.