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Severe Weather 2026

JPWX said:
I would like to see the Euro show this GFS severe weather threat before I get too excited about the possibility. 6z GFS seemed to have failed to launch today.
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On that note, the 12Z EPS has some subtle western troughing at 500mb at the end of the run, or at least a generally zonal flow across the CONUS. At a minimum that would finally bring an end to these repeated cold surges which have been absolutely miserable around these parts.
 
Awaiting the fantasy portion of the 00z GFS to continue the trend of some sort of agreement around mid Feb that the potential for western CONUS troughing may produce some sort of svr weather. There is a slight trend here that suggests it's not all fantasy and there is a signal for something broad, but of course, it's all messed up in the eccentric and wacky signals that the GFS is painting with not much to go off.
 
00z GFS coming in with winter weather potential behind northern Gulf low on 15th. I say winter weather potential because that has the looks of a cold core upper level low moves from Louisiana to MS with your Gulf Low out ahead. I know it just shows "rain", but with that 540 line being like it is, that indicates to me there should be an upper level low in the Louisiana/MS vicinity. And, if that's the case, you all know what cold core upper level lows can do.....
 

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I'm beginning to incorporate some of Cameron Nixon's research into analysing soundings and just for fun, well the 06z GFS explicitly makes it to E IA in this. The Arkansas profiles are absurd for this time of year, 80 0-6km shear and 1k SBCAPE. This is all just for curiosity and this is not to be taken seriously. Lots of variation will occur but some area in Mid Feb may have the potential for a svr event. Just too large of a area to outline atm.

This is taken from Central AR, and basically you want the least water/saturation in your effective inflow layer. You also do want some good dry air aloft, not too much. All in all, that's a nice thermodynamic sounding without considering that nothing actually fires due to that slight warm nose. The general coverage is pretty wild, but thankfully instability response up north is pretty lackluster. The 06z GFS also returns what i called a 1/22/17 all over again just taken per verbatim, and it did it to a p much lesser extent. With a localised area of intense parameters in SE LA.

This sounding is the exact opposite of a good thermodynamic profile and i don't think i have to explain much. While robust low level shear does exist, the EIL is completely saturated and no dry air aloft to compensate for it.

Using this little thermodynamic method, it explains why 3/15/25 underperformed despite being the significant outbreak that it was. The dry air aloft was not as good as initially anticipated and it lead to more messier, struggling storms for the most part. Down south, just a bit more dry air allowed S MS to drop several significant tornadoes. 3/14/25 was actually upper echelon on this method, it was a perfect sounding for healthy supercells.

I just like using these fantasy runs as a little teaching resource/lesson! Hope someone learned something from this!

Central AR sounding 2nd image, SE LA 3rd image
 

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WeathermanLeprechaun said:
I'm beginning to incorporate some of Cameron Nixon's research into analysing soundings and just for fun, well the 06z GFS explicitly makes it to E IA in this. The Arkansas profiles are absurd for this time of year, 80 0-6km shear and 1k SBCAPE. This is all just for curiosity and this is not to be taken seriously. Lots of variation will occur but some area in Mid Feb may have the potential for a svr event. Just too large of a area to outline atm.

This is taken from Central AR, and basically you want the least water/saturation in your effective inflow layer. You also do want some good dry air aloft, not too much. All in all, that's a nice thermodynamic sounding without considering that nothing actually fires due to that slight warm nose. The general coverage is pretty wild, but thankfully instability response up north is pretty lackluster. The 06z GFS also returns what i called a 1/22/17 all over again just taken per verbatim, and it did it to a p much lesser extent. With a localised area of intense parameters in SE LA.

This sounding is the exact opposite of a good thermodynamic profile and i don't think i have to explain much. While robust low level shear does exist, the EIL is completely saturated and no dry air aloft to compensate for it.

Using this little thermodynamic method, it explains why 3/15/25 underperformed despite being the significant outbreak that it was. The dry air aloft was not as good as initially anticipated and it lead to more messier, struggling storms for the most part. Down south, just a bit more dry air allowed S MS to drop several significant tornadoes. 3/14/25 was actually upper echelon on this method, it was a perfect sounding for healthy supercells.

I just like using these fantasy runs as a little teaching resource/lesson! Hope someone learned something from this!

Central AR sounding 2nd image, SE LA 3rd image
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Seen a number of setups in recent years with those profiles containing very saturated inflow layers, sometimes SPC gets excited and 15 hatches them due to extreme low-level shear but I don't think I've ever seen them do much of anything impressive. Maybe a relatively short-lived strong tornado or two.
 
CheeselandSkies said:
Seen a number of setups in recent years with those profiles containing very saturated inflow layers, sometimes SPC gets excited and 15 hatches them due to extreme low-level shear but I don't think I've ever seen them do much of anything impressive. Maybe a relatively short-lived strong tornado or two.
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They certainly limit the ceiling. I think it causes the cell to just grudge up with loads of water and it just can't consolidate a intense tornado
 
Long-range modelling and derived products are picking up on a possible shift in conditions towards the middle of the month. Warming temperatures and increasing chances for precipitation are apparent, driven by repeat fronts placed further north, which would give us something other than ice or cold rain. Some low-level probabilities off of CIPS' long-range probabilities for severe weather and some relatively robust values (though at this range, they should be taken with a grain of salt) off the NSSL experimental ML model are visible towards the 2/12-2/16 time frame. Nothing definitive, but a sign of potential changing climatological tides.
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Clancy said:
Long-range modelling and derived products are picking up on a possible shift in conditions towards the middle of the month. Warming temperatures and increasing chances for precipitation are apparent, driven by repeat fronts placed further north, which would give us something other than ice or cold rain. Some low-level probabilities off of CIPS' long-range probabilities for severe weather and some relatively robust values (though at this range, they should be taken with a grain of salt) off the NSSL experimental ML model are visible towards the 2/12-2/16 time frame. Nothing definitive, but a sign of potential changing climatological tides.
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Just came here to say, today's 12Z GFS certainly continued the trend of spicy setups from the 14th onward, with the usual caveat of it being far too soon to take any op run anywhere near verbatim, but the signal for that timeframe being of interest is undeniable.
 
Clancy said:
Long-range modelling and derived products are picking up on a possible shift in conditions towards the middle of the month. Warming temperatures and increasing chances for precipitation are apparent, driven by repeat fronts placed further north, which would give us something other than ice or cold rain. Some low-level probabilities off of CIPS' long-range probabilities for severe weather and some relatively robust values (though at this range, they should be taken with a grain of salt) off the NSSL experimental ML model are visible towards the 2/12-2/16 time frame. Nothing definitive, but a sign of potential changing climatological tides.
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That cha ge 25 times before that timeframe. Just to far out for best probs yet … but trend is pointing to some action
 
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I saw that on the 18z GFS. Looks like you have a fujiwhara effect too. Would be interesting if it happened. The only February tropical system to occur was the Groundhog day tropical storm in 1952.
 
Just had a tornado warning in Texas earlier. Seems like several low topped, discrete cells are operating in the environment. Given strong storm relative outflow and several interactions, seems like some sort of low end tornado threat isn't ruled out with these cells but unsure how long it will last
 
Currently surface temperatures would suggest a severe weather threat late next week. However, those dewpoints (mid 50s to low 60s) are gonna have to come up a lot more and these systems are gonna have to slow down a little on the all the forecast models in order to have a much more significant influx of moisture. Otherwise, you aren't gonna get much of a robust severe weather threat.
 
JPWX said:
Currently surface temperatures would suggest a severe weather threat late next week. However, those dewpoints (mid 50s to low 60s) are gonna have to come up a lot more and these systems are gonna have to slow down a little on the all the forecast models in order to have a much more significant influx of moisture. Otherwise, you aren't gonna get much of a robust severe weather threat.
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Low 60 s dew point is plenty efficient ina winter time threat just saying
 
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