Severe Weather 2026

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

A potentially impactful windstorm may hit me tomorrow morning into the evening if the ICON verifies. The placement of the low determines how intense we may get and imo, 65+ mph wind gusts are looking a decent possibility tomorrow although guaranteed. I am eager to track and document this system, in fact, strong wind gusts are already taking place as i type this comment!

This is in kph, but 103 kph converted to mph is around 70 mph!, the ICON ensembles have had agreement on this which is why I'm concerned. Definitely could see some localised damage and significant flooding. We will see.

This is old but I meant not guaranteed haha. The sleepiness was on me when typing this

 

[Jason Mills]

I don't like the usage of that CIPS probabilistic guidance. It feels more like fuel for chasers just needing to get high on some sort of hope that a good chase is coming soon. No bad words on @Kds86z, he's just sharing and that's no problem.

I just see it used a bit too often in that type of fashion. We'll see


I certainly verified 55-60 mph wind gusts today! Dublin Airport also recorded a 55 mph gust. Could've been worse but those gusts got loud at some points!

That’s CFS, not CIPS. The map posted is essentially “accumulated” SCP from the CFS and is pretty well known to not have much use outside of (potentially) rough ideas. CIPS does the machine learning probabilities out to day 8. It’s not perfect but is much more useful

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

That’s CFS, not CIPS. The map posted is essentially “accumulated” SCP from the CFS and is pretty well known to not have much use outside of (potentially) rough ideas. CIPS does the machine learning probabilities out to day 8. It’s not perfect but is much more useful

my apologies, got confused. Both have similar sounding initials so

I do agree, but even then, I've never properly seen it verify even with its rough ideas. Long range forecasting in Winter is tough work

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

The long range GFS says stuff for Feb 11th. Expect wild changes, perhaps nothing, perhaps something since we're in bozo land at the moment but these type of hodos for Dixie are kinda wonky.

 

[Clancy]

my apologies, got confused. Both have similar sounding initials so

I do agree, but even then, I've never properly seen it verify even with its rough ideas. Long range forecasting in Winter is tough work

CFS isn't super great at much. Strong consistent signals from CFS-based products like the long-range SCP accumulation *can* be helpful, but it only is ever really a signal worth watching if it's significant and sustained. The snapshot from that tweet shows neither, in this case, so it's definitely not raising any eyebrows for me. It also misses winter events pretty hard in most cases, and tends to pick up on conditions in the Plains with much greater acuity than the South.

 

[KevinH]

With intrusion after intrusion of continental polar air, it's going to be very difficult to get any kind of appreciable moisture return for a while. I agree with JPWX - anything major in the severe department seems to be out of the picture for a while.

Good.

But watch a surprise outbreak catch everyone off guard. As we all know, Dixie does not follow the rules and does what it wants lol

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

It’s going take some time for the gulf to recovery from this frozen tundra

 

[JBishopwx]

Coming March 2nd...
SPC added different levels of hatching based on the severity of the threats. This is to differentiate between days when many tornadoes could occur but are expected to be weak, vs. a day when 1 or 2 significant tornadoes may occur. They’ve also added wind probabilities that go up to 90% for derecho situations!

 

[Clancy]

Coming March 2nd...
SPC added different levels of hatching based on the severity of the threats. This is to differentiate between days when many tornadoes could occur but are expected to be weak, vs. a day when 1 or 2 significant tornadoes may occur. They’ve also added wind probabilities that go up to 90% for derecho situations!

While I know us weather nerds will enjoy this change regardless, I was initially worried this might be more confusing to laypeople and increase risk of error and miscommunication. However, I think I've changed my mind, and the reason why is this: these particular changes increase the ability of forecasters to convey detailed information about threats in a purely chromatic/visual format without falling into the trap of hyper-specificity. It could also give them more play with the issuance of Moderate and High Risks - the way both have usually been depicted to the public rarely took into account hatched areas, because they almost always coincided with the zones of Mod/High areal coverage. With the addition of CIG parameters, they can now be used more effectively in communicating hazards.

 

[JPWX]

It's also good in that it would help change the idea somewhat of "SPC goes Moderate to High Risk today. Gonna be multiple EF3+ tornadoes."

 

[ColdFront]

It’s going take some time for the gulf to recovery from this frozen tundra

I do agree that this ice cold pattern isn’t going to be conducive to severe weather for a while.

However, on the gulf, your low level moisture source until the early-to-mid part of May will be originating in the Caribbean. It will just depend on the right trough geometry of the system(s) post-pattern change to advect it northwards.

 

[Ozonelayer]

Just figured I'd ask. What's yalls severe weather bingo card for this year, or a list of things ypu think will happen? Figured it'd be a bit of a fun thing to do since the severe weather season starts in a little over a month

 

[Central Ohio Wx]

Coming March 2nd...
SPC added different levels of hatching based on the severity of the threats. This is to differentiate between days when many tornadoes could occur but are expected to be weak, vs. a day when 1 or 2 significant tornadoes may occur. They’ve also added wind probabilities that go up to 90% for derecho situations!

I saw a screenshot of this a few days ago and was wondering when it was coming out... I guess I didn't have to wait long. My main concern is how confusing it is for the public; I myself am having a hard time deciphering it.

 

[JPWX]

18z GFS would be a major tornado outbreak around the 15th timeframe. I have my doubts about this happening though for now, but it's worth mentioning. Just something to keep in mind. A 987mb to 982mb low lifting up from Texas would be quite something.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

18z GFS would be a major tornado outbreak around the 15th timeframe. I have my doubts about this happening though for now, but it's worth mentioning. Just something to keep in mind. A 987mb to 982mb low lifting up from Texas would be quite something.

It's the happy hour GFS at near the end of the run, lol.

That said, there is GFS and Euro ensemble support for some degree of a pattern change about mid-month, which could turn things more active in the severe weather department. However verbatim the system goes quite far south, with the warm sector confined to the immediate Gulf coast and the Florida peninsula. Definite El Nino vibes there with the strongly southward-displaced subtropical jet, similar to the pattern that produced the March '93 Superstorm and the February 1998 and 2007 Florida tornado outbreaks.

 

[JPWX]

It's the happy hour GFS at near the end of the run, lol.

That said, there is GFS and Euro ensemble support for some degree of a pattern change about mid-month, which could turn things more active in the severe weather department. However verbatim the system goes quite far south, with the warm sector confined to the immediate Gulf coast and the Florida peninsula. Definite El Nino vibes there with the strongly southward-displaced subtropical jet, similar to the pattern that produced the March '93 Superstorm and the February 1998 and 2007 Florida tornado outbreaks.

Yeah. I would bet more on another winter weather threat than severe at this point. Besides, I need my big southern snowstorm before we switch to Spring. Less freezing rain, more snow

 

[tennessee storm chaser]

Already talk bout a big system around valentines area . Per cosgrove and bama weather …. But I do see a
Pattern change coming second half February

 

[WeathermanLeprechaun]

The 12z GFS explicitly pulls a fantasy 1/22 - 1/23/17 all over again at the end of the run. Quite a widespread warm sector with strong low level shear. 995 low in the Midwest too. Wild fantasy run

 

[CheeselandSkies]

The 12z GFS explicitly pulls a fantasy 1/22 - 1/23/17 all over again at the end of the run. Quite a widespread warm sector with strong low level shear. 995 low in the Midwest too. Wild fantasy run

Yeah, it wasn't a one-run anomaly after all. Lots and lots of time for things to change, but that 2/14-17 timeframe definitely has my attention now, though.

 

[JPWX]

I would like to see the Euro show this GFS severe weather threat before I get too excited about the possibility. 6z GFS seemed to have failed to launch today.