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January 30th-February 1st Winter Storm potential

lake.effect said:
Wouldn't be surprised to see an extension of the watch down to about Charleston. Models are in pretty good agreement of at least 1-2" inches down here. That would not normally meet WSW criteria up north but I believe the local NWS offices make exceptions for such advisories when they are rare for the area, or would result in a higher impact for the area than others.
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WSW criteria is diff for between areas, what could be a winter storm watch or warning down south is a winter weather adv for a much more northern area or a winter weather adv translating to a winter storm warnings or blizzard warning for other areas. I find it really interesting
 
KevinH said:
Not knowing until the day of an event or until the time in question happens can very be a thing when it comes to the weather.

Weather can be very complicated and is not as black and white as some people think. It’s tough.
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My memory may be bad but all the impactful snow events in B'ham I recall were all unexpected or last minute warnings as its unfolding.
 
TVILLE96 said:
Its either going to get better (increased snow chances) or it will completely disappear by tomorrow night. Will move back to east Georgia
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I agree, I'm hoping for the former. But honestly im not getting my hopes up too much. Trying to stay realistic that it'll probably just be some flurries, even though I want a inch or two. Maybe tommorw it'll trend better lol.
 
cyelle21 said:
The 6z models do not look as good (to my eyes anyway). However, BMX said that the setup looks more promising for certain areas... I realize this is a more of a "now-casting" scenario, Hoping flurries will make it a little further south to Dallas County. View attachment 50442
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Yeah I think currently models are going to have a hard time with it, I think the snow for. Central Alabama is heavily reliant on instability which models are not going to pick up well on
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Yeah I think currently models are going to have a hard time with it, I think the snow for. Central Alabama is heavily reliant on instability which models are not going to pick up well on
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One thing that I have noticed on various models are these thin, narrow bands of snow...are these the "convective snow bands" that they are thinking will occur? This is from the RRFS model.
 

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Based on the hrrr I wouldn't be surprised for the winter storm watches to be extended west to closer to the Alabama state line in Georgia. 12z Hrrr has decent snow all the way to the line. And the model also has better snow chances for Alabama. Maybe we are seeing a uptick?
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Based on the hrrr I wouldn't be surprised for the winter storm watches to be extended west to closer to the Alabama state line in Georgia. 12z Hrrr has decent snow all the way to the line. And the model also has better snow chances for Alabama. Maybe we are seeing a uptick?
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I like the look of that model...a nice snow band coming through central Alabama all the way through Dallas County. Hopefully trending in the right direction!
 
UncleJuJu98 said:
Based on the hrrr I wouldn't be surprised for the winter storm watches to be extended west to closer to the Alabama state line in Georgia. 12z Hrrr has decent snow all the way to the line. And the model also has better snow chances for Alabama. Maybe we are seeing an uptick?
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The 12z HRRR keeps trending the 700mb low more to the west and has so over the previous 4 runs which is good news for snow lovers in Georgia and Alabama.
 
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