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January 23-25th Winter Wx

NorthGaWeather said:
Put the 00z GFS ZR map in a museum. Almost 3” near ATL. While this will never happen, incredible GFS run. Significant to crippling ice storm still on track for GA.
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While ice of that level is unlikely, I'm definitely pretty worried about major accumulation around the Atlanta metro. Could be major problems if it looks anything remotely like this.
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Clancy said:
While ice of that level is unlikely, I'm definitely pretty worried about major accumulation around the Atlanta metro. Could be major problems if it looks anything remotely like this.
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I’m 10 miles north of downtown and was feeling pretty good until this evening. Somewhere in the metro it’s going to be a bad weekend for sure.
 
Clancy said:
While ice of that level is unlikely, I'm definitely pretty worried about major accumulation around the Atlanta metro. Could be major problems if it looks anything remotely like this.
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Same. Half those totals and it’s catastrophic. Cut them by two-thirds and it’s crippling.

I think if the signal is still there come tomorrow afternoon, the alarm will be sounded. Then it’s how strong the wedge is and it’s likely under modeled based on its strength and position on the GFS.
 
WSBTV in ATL buying into strong wedge allowing for more significant icing. Will be very interesting to see how this all plays out. Looking forward to FFC’s 3pm discussion tomorrow
 
Yeaaaah this is not at all looking good for MS/GA and even the Carolinas, a little surreal that these runs are still sparing most of AL (I will NOT complain if that's the case! But still feels like the warm nose is way overdone) but given the setup, really feels like this is bad bad news for someone
 
GFS puts Atlanta area temperatures briefly above freezing Sunday night into early Monday morning which is interesting. Looks to be about 5-8 hours. But the bulk seems to be deposited overnight through mid-morning Sunday so I don't know how much a degree or two above freezing will help other than to drop water on the roads to hard freeze after. On that note, the GFS has Atlanta go below freezing around 1am Monday, and doesn't go back above freezing until 2pm Wednesday. And still some overnight freezing temperatures after that. But it also looks like some cloud coverage during the week so sunlight sublimation might be more limited.
 
MattW said:
GFS puts Atlanta area temperatures briefly above freezing Sunday night into early Monday morning which is interesting. Looks to be about 5-8 hours. But the bulk seems to be deposited overnight through mid-morning Sunday so I don't know how much a degree or two above freezing will help other than to drop water on the roads to hard freeze after. On that note, the GFS has Atlanta go below freezing around 1am Monday, and doesn't go back above freezing until 2pm Wednesday. And still some overnight freezing temperatures after that. But it also looks like some cloud coverage during the week so sunlight sublimation might be more limited.
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Like the CAD, sustained cloud cover that might save us during a severe event could be a detriment with the ice storm.
 
I don't think there is anyone in Kentucky with less than a foot of snow on this run. That's going to be a heck of a snowpack if it all verifies.
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Euro on board with that too at 18Z, so y'all going to get clocked. You're welcome for the Alabama atmospheric river...lol.

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Two feet of snow in Fayetteville, AR and Lexington, KY. That'd be nuts. I'm really curious how this sleet situation is going to play out in Tennessee, because they have a pretty intense band of it for an extended period of time. They're showing moderate snowfall, and minimal freezing rain, but where does sleet accumulation play in? Same question for a lot of other areas. This is certainly going to be a thick wet snow, which will make the roads extremely slick and difficult to clear.

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NorthGaWeather said:
Same. Half those totals and it’s catastrophic. Cut them by two-thirds and it’s crippling.

I think if the signal is still there come tomorrow afternoon, the alarm will be sounded. Then it’s how strong the wedge is and it’s likely under modeled based on its strength and position on the GFS.
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I was just about to say this. I think the higher forecast and then any type of backing off is going to make people think less of the event.

We had 1/2 inch of ice in college (circa 2010) and it legit shut the city down. There's videos of my friend on the news trying to get up from the ice and he just ends up sitting down, staring at the camera, and putting his hands up in the air. Great clip :D
 
Pretty wild to think that the city with the heaviest interstate traffic and most elaborate mix masters (Atlanta) is going to be covered in an inch+ of solid ice for 3 days or more. It's a recipe for calamity like we've never seen. "Historic" wouldn't quite cover it.
 
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