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January 23-25th Winter Wx

In my area, it appears we are either gonna have a massive sleet storm, or a disastrous ice storm. Depends on how much cold can make it down.
I really hope we start seeing another trend south, but I'm not going to hold my breath for that
 
BMX is not buying into the ECMWF's northern trend yet.

Friday night through Tuesday

Slight rain chances remain in the forecast throughout the day
Friday, however there may be a brief reprieve behind the front
before the big weekend weather maker arrives. A southern stream
trough will eject eastward from the Baja California area,
originating from a cutoff low off the coast of California Thursday.
Ahead of this trough, a surface low is likely to develop near the
Texas coast and track either along the Gulf Coast or just inland
Saturday into Sunday. With a fairly cold airmass already in place,
especially across northern and western Central Alabama, this will
promote an overrunning setup that may become highly favorable for
winter precipitation.

With any winter weather event in the South, the forecast is highly
dependent on a variety of factors, some of which are either poorly
modeled or cannot be resolved by the lower-resolution global models.
The setup with this event is highly dependent on the surface low to
our south, whether the low stays over water south of the FL
Panhandle and tracks toward the Big Bend or if it comes inland
around New Orleans or Mobile and moves across southern AL and GA. A
more northern track, for instance, will bring warmer surface
temperatures farther north during the day Saturday, potentially
pushing the rain/ice line and ultimately the ice/snow line further
north toward North AL and TN. As of this forecast update, the
working scenario is for snow totals to drastically increase from the
northern fringes of our forecast area into North AL and TN. Ice
accumulation is expected in the greatest amounts generally south of
U.S. 72 and north of I-20, on the southern fringe of the expected
snow accumulation.

A more southern track of the low, staying over water, would likely
mean the potential ice and snow accumulation shifts a little further
south.

Additionally, a trend in the NBM has been observed to be limiting
ice accumulation over North and Central AL to around 0.5-0.75",
while global models have continually shown as much as 1.5-1.75" of
ice accumulation somewhere across the state in that range between
U.S. 72 and I-20. This is likely a result of NBM averaging out
higher totals because they occur over different areas of the state,
given a specific model or a specific run. The NBM showing lower
totals across a broader area should not lull anyone into thinking
that ice accumulation cannot be significantly higher in a certain
corridor.

Now, looking at the latest 00z deterministic GFS and ECMWF as this
discussion is written, the GFS brings the surface low inland across
Mobile and Dothan while the ECMWF delivered a drastic shift,
bringing the surface low across Birmingham and much deeper, with the
warm nose extending well up into East TN. This is considerably
different than most runs of the ECMWF since Sunday and will bear
close watching to see if a trend develops. If a trend holds with the
surface low further north, that could require changes to the Central
Alabama forecast for this weekend over the next couple days.

It is important not to "windshield wipe" with a complicated winter
forecast, so in spite of the 00z ECMWF, we will continue to expect a
potentially very significant winter precipitation event across
much of Central Alabama, especially the northern half, from Friday
night through Sunday night.

Behind the front Monday night into Tuesday morning will be frigid,
with the current forecast calling for low 20s across the southeast
all the way down into single digits across the north and northwest.
Click to expand...
 
The 6z Euro has shifted north significantly with the whole state receiving rain. I am hoping at least for some snow flurries on the back end of the system. I live in the Selma area and we haven't had any measurable snow since 2018 I believe. We got a whole 10 minutes of snow during last year's south Alabama snow storm. Growing up in New England, I miss Noreasters so much.
 
Flurry said:
Has the B’ham warm nose struck again??
Click to expand...
It's funny how two or three days ago they were predicting Armageddon, now it could be turned out to be a nothing burger. Only time will tell. Miy gut tells me this is going to turn south and again is going to catch everybody off guard I've seen it happen before this is nothing new
 
This is the Birmingham national weather service morning writeup and talks about the model trends

Friday night through Tuesday

Slight rain chances remain in the forecast throughout the day
Friday, however there may be a brief reprieve behind the front
before the big weekend weather maker arrives. A southern stream
trough will eject eastward from the Baja California area,
originating from a cutoff low off the coast of California Thursday.
Ahead of this trough, a surface low is likely to develop near the
Texas coast and track either along the Gulf Coast or just inland
Saturday into Sunday. With a fairly cold airmass already in place,
especially across northern and western Central Alabama, this will
promote an overrunning setup that may become highly favorable for
winter precipitation.

With any winter weather event in the South, the forecast is highly
dependent on a variety of factors, some of which are either poorly
modeled or cannot be resolved by the lower-resolution global models.
The setup with this event is highly dependent on the surface low to
our south, whether the low stays over water south of the FL
Panhandle and tracks toward the Big Bend or if it comes inland
around New Orleans or Mobile and moves across southern AL and GA. A
more northern track, for instance, will bring warmer surface
temperatures farther north during the day Saturday, potentially
pushing the rain/ice line and ultimately the ice/snow line further
north toward North AL and TN. As of this forecast update, the
working scenario is for snow totals to drastically increase from the
northern fringes of our forecast area into North AL and TN. Ice
accumulation is expected in the greatest amounts generally south of
U.S. 72 and north of I-20, on the southern fringe of the expected
snow accumulation.

A more southern track of the low, staying over water, would likely
mean the potential ice and snow accumulation shifts a little further
south.

Additionally, a trend in the NBM has been observed to be limiting
ice accumulation over North and Central AL to around 0.5-0.75",
while global models have continually shown as much as 1.5-1.75" of
ice accumulation somewhere across the state in that range between
U.S. 72 and I-20. This is likely a result of NBM averaging out
higher totals because they occur over different areas of the state,
given a specific model or a specific run. The NBM showing lower
totals across a broader area should not lull anyone into thinking
that ice accumulation cannot be significantly higher in a certain
corridor.

Now, looking at the latest 00z deterministic GFS and ECMWF as this
discussion is written, the GFS brings the surface low inland across
Mobile and Dothan while the ECMWF delivered a drastic shift,
bringing the surface low across Birmingham and much deeper, with the
warm nose extending well up into East TN. This is considerably
different than most runs of the ECMWF since Sunday and will bear
close watching to see if a trend develops. If a trend holds with the
surface low further north, that could require changes to the Central
Alabama forecast for this weekend over the next couple days.

It is important not to "windshield wipe" with a complicated winter
forecast, so in spite of the 00z ECMWF, we will continue to expect a
potentially very significant winter precipitation event across
much of Central Alabama, especially the northern half, from Friday
night through Sunday night.

Behind the front Monday night into Tuesday morning will be frigid,
with the current forecast calling for low 20s across the southeast
all the way down into single digits across the north and northwest.

12
 
Just supposing we get all this heavy rain as opposed to apocalyptic ice .. then drop to 14 Monday night.. all that water is NOT going to dry up.. could it create an (ice storm) effect as far as trees, roads, power outages??? Not sure I’ve seen us get a multi day heavy rain then a deep temp plunge.. yes.. I think if strange stuff.. I’m on the Ga/al border near the Chambers/Randolph county border. Right near 85… right in that sweet spot where that wedge often dips to unpredictably until it’s nowcasted.
 
Psalm 148:8 said:
Just supposing we get all this heavy rain as opposed to apocalyptic ice .. then drop to 14 Monday night.. all that water is NOT going to dry up.. could it create an (ice storm) effect as far as trees, roads, power outages??? Not sure I’ve seen us get a multi day heavy rain then a deep temp plunge.. yes.. I think if strange stuff.. I’m on the Ga/al border near the Chambers/Randolph county border. Right near 85… right in that sweet spot where that wedge often dips to unpredictably until it’s nowcasted.
Click to expand...
it could create icy roads where there is standing water, but trees and powerlines would be fine. there could be a touch of ice ob those objects if they are still wet, but not enough to weigh them down and make them fall.
 
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