Severe Weather 2025

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

00z gfs alr has big ol trough and huge ws for jam 11th, will prob phase away but if it doesn't, def keep an eye out

 

[MichelleH]

00z gfs alr has big ol trough and huge ws for jam 11th, will prob phase away but if it doesn't, def keep an eye out

Severe Weather 2026

 

[Cyclonic Paracosm]

Severe Weather 2026

oops I completely forgot ,b

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Didn't see it posted anywhere here yet. Earlier today, Trey dropped his breakdown video on the 4/28/25 "moderate risk of meh" across the Midwest. He even used a snippet of my footage, at the 22:19 mark. Also some very interesting and educational comparisons of the upper-air setup and project OMEGA calculations to past expected tornado outbreak setups that verified (4/27/11, 3/31/23, 4/2/25) as well as some others that likewise b*sted or underperformed relative to expectations (4/26/16, 5/20/19, 5/6/24).

 

[TH2002]

Didn't see it posted anywhere here yet. Earlier today, Trey dropped his breakdown video on the 4/28/25 "moderate risk of meh" across the Midwest. He even used a snippet of my footage, at the 22:19 mark. Also some very interesting and educational comparisons of the upper-air setup and project OMEGA calculations to past expected tornado outbreak setups that verified (4/27/11, 3/31/23, 4/2/25) as well as some others that likewise b*sted or underperformed relative to expectations (4/26/16, 5/20/19, 5/6/24).

Not gonna lie... I initially misread "moderate risk of meh" as "moderate risk of meth".

Living in a crack house for four or five years didn't do me any good...

 

[Tennie]

Not gonna lie... I initially misread "moderate risk of meh" as "moderate risk of meth".

Living in a crack house for four or five years didn't do me any good...

I think that the system probably would've performed better (or worse, depending on perspective) if it indeed took a bunch of meth. Like, say, 30 pills or so of the stuff...

 

[ColdFront]

Didn't see it posted anywhere here yet. Earlier today, Trey dropped his breakdown video on the 4/28/25 "moderate risk of meh" across the Midwest. He even used a snippet of my footage, at the 22:19 mark. Also some very interesting and educational comparisons of the upper-air setup and project OMEGA calculations to past expected tornado outbreak setups that verified (4/27/11, 3/31/23, 4/2/25) as well as some others that likewise b*sted or underperformed relative to expectations (4/26/16, 5/20/19, 5/6/24).

I like his “underperform” event analysis studies just as much as his historical case study videos. A lot of good bits of information in this one.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Atlantic]

This is the 2025 thread my friend.

 

[Kds86z]

This is the 2025 thread my friend.

Haha yeah sorry. So sleepy

 

[Atlantic]

Haha yeah sorry. So sleepy

It’s all good my friend. Just lending a helping hand.

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Grand Poo Bah]

A little late to the end of the year reminiscing, but you guys remember the HRRR run that made us all $hit our collective pants on 03/14? Good times.

 

[Ozonelayer]

A little late to the end of the year reminiscing, but you guys remember the HRRR run that made us all $hit our collective pants on 03/14? Good times.

View attachment 49750View attachment 49751
View attachment 49752

To add onto that here is another that did the same:



I genuinely thought I was looking at runs from 4/26-27/2011 with some of these runs.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

To add onto that here is another that did the same:

View attachment 49761

I genuinely thought I was looking at runs from 4/26-27/2011 with some of these runs.

Not quite as memetastic as the infamous 15Z run from 5/20/2019, but up there. The model definitely still has a "supercell printer" bias, and the funny thing is the RRFS (which is expected to replace it) makes it look tame in that department, especially at the tail end of its range.

 

[KakashiHatake2000]

 

[Kds86z]

 

[Kds86z]

Thanks @KakashiHatake2000 . Good stuff