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Severe Weather 2025

I got a Tempest Weather Station for Christmas
 
I find it interesting how quiet the last few fall/winter seasons have been for severe weather and tornado outbreaks. Ever since 2022 it's basically been nothing but main season events. I guess we'll have to see if the trend holds up over the next couple months.

In all fairness, March 14/15 and March 24 can still be considered early season, but they're technically in the meteorological spring, so I wouldn't count them.

(PS. I'm the same person as "SilentShadow87", I got locked out of my account somehow...once again my name is a reference to some metal lyrics from the 80s and I'll give anyone who can guess the song a free cookie lol).
 
Full rundown pending tomorrow but I want to say - you know you have an incredible Northern Plains activity streak when its starter is the first EF5 in 12 years.

EDIT: You also know it's a hell of a year when a setup comes that theoretically has a ceiling involving Super Outbreak-caliber events on TWO CONSECUTIVE DAYS. YIKES.
 
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VultureDirge89 said:
I find it interesting how quiet the last few fall/winter seasons have been for severe weather and tornado outbreaks. Ever since 2022 it's basically been nothing but main season events. I guess we'll have to see if the trend holds up over the next couple months.

In all fairness, March 14/15 and March 24 can still be considered early season, but they're technically in the meteorological spring, so I wouldn't count them.

(PS. I'm the same person as "SilentShadow87", I got locked out of my account somehow...once again my name is a reference to some metal lyrics from the 80s and I'll give anyone who can guess the song a free cookie lol).
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This is something I’ve observed as well. However, I think cold season events really fall into the “exception” rather than the rule. I haven’t personally ran the numbers, but I’d like to see how relatively “active” each cold season was and if there are quiet stretches throughout.

It’s the definition of the gamblers fallacy, but we have trended since 2022 with very quiet November/December events. Save for some notable days like 12/28 last year. So it hasn’t been exactly shocking that this season has been extremely quiet.
 
ColdFront said:
This is something I’ve observed as well. However, I think cold season events really fall into the “exception” rather than the rule. I haven’t personally ran the numbers, but I’d like to see how relatively “active” each cold season was and if there are quiet stretches throughout.

It’s the definition of the gamblers fallacy, but we have trended since 2022 with very quiet November/December events. Save for some notable days like 12/28 last year. So it hasn’t been exactly shocking that this season has been extremely quiet.
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Well December of 2021 gave us what was the worst tornado outbreak of the decade so far (IMO atleast)
 
Ozonelayer said:
Well December of 2021 gave us what was the worst tornado outbreak of the decade so far (IMO atleast)
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Correct, which is really is why I said they’re the exception not the rule.

I’d be interested in seeing just how “active” cold seasons were over the past 25 years. I’ve always operated under the assumption you can get outbreaks and even large scale outbreaks in November/December (12/28, 12/10, Veterans Day) but those are obviously going to be rare and cold seasons more often than not tends to fall on the quiet side.
 
ColdFront said:
Correct, which is really is why I said they’re the exception not the rule.

I’d be interested in seeing just how “active” cold seasons were over the past 25 years. I’ve always operated under the assumption you can get outbreaks and even large scale outbreaks in November/December (12/28, 12/10, Veterans Day) but those are obviously going to be rare and cold seasons more often than not tends to fall on the quiet side.
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Completely true. It seems as if after 2021 or 2022 it fell off with maybe a few events here and there like 12/28/2024. But nothing nearly as intense as 12/10 or Veterans Day.

Your "Gamblers Fallacy" analogy in the original post was spot on in that regard. Though it is odd for a winter to go nearly entirely without a somewhat thought-worthy event (For example, the bomb-cyclone outbreak a day or two ago)
 
Some general 2025 stats for Mississippi:
-Total Tornadoes: 79
-Total Tornado Warnings: 195
-Total Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 789
-Total Combined Warnings: 984
-Counties with the most Tornado Warnings: 1: Lafayette, 2: Pontotoc, 3: Marshall, Benton, Jones, Jasper
-Counties with NO Tornado Warnings: Clay, Hancock. Adams, Warren.
-The number of days with Enhanced Risk or higher: 22
-Total Severe Weather Days: 85 (23.2%)
 

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Finally, the year is over. Here's a brief sum-up!

2025. What a year. The EF5 has returned, its return has the potential to kick off a tornado ratings earthquake, the Northern Plains have come back from the dead (for now), we got another 5/20/19-esque threat that (largely) never was, and we saw the most violent tornadoes in a single year since 2013.

January and February were basically trash lmao

March saw two consecutive days with theoretical Super Outbreak ceilings. 3/14 included a 119 mile long EF4 and an EF4 that pushed the rating to its limits and made us all wonder if it was a true EF5 candidate.

April started with a "wrongly issued" High Risk that verified and only broke the "High Risk Violent Tornadoes" streak because NWS Memphis can't survey for crap. Lake City was an EF4, don't @ me. I don't remember much of anything for much of the rest of the month, though.

May had a big sequence that had a St. Louis tornado, a surprise 190 mph EF4 in Illinois that may have been rated too high, and then a outbreak that finally broke the "lol the good stuff is after dark" streak...until it then had its biggest, most dramatic event (the Plevna supercell) after dark. Of course. And then May just...died.

June had a Northern Plains activity streak that started with the first EF5 in 12 years, and then continued with an amazing tornado near Gary, SD.

July saw Northern Plains activity continue.

Aug-Oct was kinda dead lol

November had the Brazil outbreak. Not one, but two F4s! Wow!

December had a few tornadoes a few days ago but was otherwise basically dead.

And then there were a bunch of old tornadoes getting changes. 2 new IF5s, a new 4/16/11 tornado, and stuff like that.

Some old assumptions died hard. Smithville turned out to likely be two separate tornadoes. Rochelle's EF5 case got a lot more borderline. We found the slam dunk EF5 DI for Mayfield. And stuff like that.

So...yeah. What a year. Bring on 2026!
 
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ColdFront said:
This is something I’ve observed as well. However, I think cold season events really fall into the “exception” rather than the rule. I haven’t personally ran the numbers, but I’d like to see how relatively “active” each cold season was and if there are quiet stretches throughout.

It’s the definition of the gamblers fallacy, but we have trended since 2022 with very quiet November/December events. Save for some notable days like 12/28 last year. So it hasn’t been exactly shocking that this season has been extremely quiet.
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That's true, and I'm probably falling into a kind of recency bias myself, since most of the cold seasons I've been around to watch were at least fairly active. I've been following severe weather for 11 years now, and 2014, 2015, 2016, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022, and 2024 all had at least one significant tornado outbreak in November or December.

I admit I forgot about 12/28 last year for some reason lol.
 
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