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Severe Weather 2025

Seen one or two on socials promoting a strong tornado not being ruled out today but personally, with this low of instability, it just won't happen. You have the kinematics in place for a brief spinup threat from SE IN all down to NE MS/NW AL with semi discrete storms. Those storms will maintain into the night but will likely struggle with the tornado threat. We definitely could've had a few unwarned or under the radar spinups today and still could for the next bit. I did not expect this event to come to fruition
 
WeathermanLeprechaun said:
Seen one or two on socials promoting a strong tornado not being ruled out today but personally, with this low of instability, it just won't happen. You have the kinematics in place for a brief spinup threat from SE IN all down to NE MS/NW AL with semi discrete storms. Those storms will maintain into the night but will likely struggle with the tornado threat. We definitely could've had a few unwarned or under the radar spinups today and still could for the next bit. I did not expect this event to come to fruition
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Spinups? Sure, one or two. Sigtors, though? Highly unlikely. Deep South sigtors can happen in the presence of meager instability, sometimes comically-low levels, but this definitely isn't giving me those vibes.
 
Clancy said:
Spinups? Sure, one or two. Sigtors, though? Highly unlikely. Deep South sigtors can happen in the presence of meager instability, sometimes comically-low levels, but this definitely isn't giving me those vibes.
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Yeah, i know i myself got a bit in the hype of that event a few weeks ago in Alabama but storms have struggled to consolidate a proper circulation today. You have discrete storms but at what cost? Low instability and high kinematics, plus maybe even a few elevated storms in the mix.
 
Can't upload pics for some reason, but the storm near Meridian is absolutely worth watching. Well-defined doughnut hole in the latest scan.
 
Clancy said:
Can't upload pics for some reason, but the storm near Meridian is absolutely worth watching. Well-defined doughnut hole in the latest scan.
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Hard-pressed to believe there isn't at least a funnel cloud on that Meridian storm. G2G at 90 kts one scan ago.
 
Clancy said:
Hard-pressed to believe there isn't at least a funnel cloud on that Meridian storm. G2G at 90 kts one scan ago.
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I'm really not sure what to think of it. That storm has had consistent 35+ kt VROT but to no avail. Part of me thinks that's just fairly strong inflow feeding in and that's not exactly strong rotation because it would probably be otg atp if it really was.
 
Conditional tor threat and even significant damaging wind gusts possible thru Eastern PA/Eastern NY tomorrow. If LLJ can mix down, that is, the wind gusts may range into the 70-75ish range. Given how we've likely seen brief spinups out of no instability today, if we can get enough CAPE tomorrow, notably pre dawn, that may be our best opportunity at brief spinups so do keep weather aware. The tornado threat may persist into NY but it becomes a bit uncertain if the kinematics will be enough alone to carry. Not being able to send images is quite annoying but latest HRRR would show you that squall line moving thru!
 
Just had a microburst here. Power out briefly and saw power flashes nearby.
 
There was some wind damage (power poles down, etc.) across NE Madison County last night. Winds got pretty stout as the line of storms passed through my area and stirred up some porch furniture.

Good thing we haven't assembled the grandson's trampoline yet!
 
Gonna be some serious fire weather today



Of particular concern is the immediate foothills across north-central
CO toward the Cheyenne WY area, where channeled flow within complex
terrain may support 50 mph sustained winds in localized spots, with
gusts up to 90 mph possible. Given dry fuels and 10-20 percent RH
along the foothills, a volatile environment may develop and support
rapid wildfire spread/extreme fire behavior for any potential
ignitions in the area, warranting Extremely Critical highlights.
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